• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
Climo says that for whatever reason to look for the best shot at something major during week 2 and into week 3. Week 1 has tended to be relatively weak for some oddball reason, at least for GA/SC/NC, even though it is the coldest week of Feb for normals.

Meanwhile, the 12Z EPS continues the trend of the EPS being much milder than the GEFS for the first few days of Feb. My money is currently closer to the EPS than the GEFS for then.
 
However, the 12Z EPS is far from doom and gloom for winter lovers as it develops a stout -AO/-NAO during the 11-15 day period, which would be in the lead up to the more climo favorable week #2 of Feb for SE winter storms. Keep in mind the 0Z EPS' forecast (supported by the 0Z GEFS) of an MJO moving into a more favorable (for SE cold) inside the left side of the circle by around 2/5. This combo of indices, should they actually verify, could very well mean we have an interesting 2nd-3rd week in Feb. just in time for better winter storm climo. Keep hope alive but also don't get hopes up too high.
 
I'm confident that down here in the Deeper South, we have a much higher chance the second week and onward of February.

I will see about getting a blog post done soon with previous events around here.
 
It looks like we might see a short period of warming as that trough off the west coast moves onshore. With a ridge building in behind it and the pv toward Hudson Bay things look good

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
I'm confident that down here in the Deeper South, we have a much higher chance the second week and onward of February.

I will see about getting a blog post done soon with previous events around here.
Click to expand...

Looking forward to it, Shawn. Let me know if you'd like info on the low tracks (what part of FL they crossed, which is fascinating to me) to include in your post. At some point soon I'm expecting to do my next blog post. I just didn't want to my next one too soon after my first one. I think spacing them apart in time may be preferable.
 
GaWx said:
Looking forward to it, Shawn. Let me know if you'd like info on the low tracks (what part of FL they crossed, which is fascinating to me) to include in your post. At some point soon I'm expecting to do my next blog post. I just didn't want to my next one too soon after my first one. I think spacing them apart in time may be preferable.
Click to expand...
Post as much as you want. The more content, the better!

And, I think I should be able to pull some old h5 charts. But thanks, and I'll let you know if I need to find some.
 
0b69ef99d5d920e4e2f2e36d97fdc1bd.jpg
 
I almost forgot about the Euro weeklies. Not bad at all. They have a -NAO/-AO/western N.A. ridge weeks 4-6. Also, after a dry weeks 1-2, they go up to near normal, which is pretty wet for the upper SE/CAD regions. They have 2 meter temp.'s near normal weeks 4-6. However, that is colder than the warmth of the prior run. Also, IF the -AO/-NAO/western ridge were to verify, I'd fully expect a colder than normal SE US.
 
Shawn said:
I'm confident that down here in the Deeper South, we have a much higher chance the second week and onward of February.

I will see about getting a blog post done soon with previous events around here.
Click to expand...
The best snows I have seen in SC are usually in February. But I haven't seen a good one in about 7 years.

Are you basing this on something or just your gut? If it's your gut Im not sold. lol
 
Flo said:
The best snows I have seen in SC are usually in February. But I haven't seen a good one in about 7 years.

Are you basing this on something or just your gut? If it's your gut Im not sold. lol
Click to expand...
Basing it on this:

TOP 10 CAE Snow Events:

16.0 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9-10 1973
11.8 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-14 1899
11.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 25-26 1914
11.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 24-25 1894
8.8 INCHES...DECEMBER 10-11 1958
8.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 12-13 2010
8.5 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-12 1895
8.1 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10-11 1912
6.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 23 1901
6.2 INCHES...JANUARY 29-30 1936
 
Flo said:
The best snows I have seen in SC are usually in February. But I haven't seen a good one in about 7 years.

Are you basing this on something or just your gut? If it's your gut Im not sold. lol
Click to expand...


Yeah the February 2010 I-20 special. Good snowstorm, and just the kind I like....snow from start to finish and every flake sticking.
 
Thats incredible that CAE had 9" of snow on Dec 10, 1958. I need to look up that storm and try to find some more info about it
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Thats incredible that CAE had 9" of snow on Dec 10, 1958. I need to look up that storm and try to find some more info about it
Click to expand...
map_btd.png


Looks like it was a weak low/late bloomer.

1958121112.gif
 
Last edited:
Shawn said:
Basing it on this:

TOP 10 CAE Snow Events:

16.0 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9-10 1973
11.8 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-14 1899
11.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 25-26 1914
11.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 24-25 1894
8.8 INCHES...DECEMBER 10-11 1958
8.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 12-13 2010
8.5 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-12 1895
8.1 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10-11 1912
6.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 23 1901
6.2 INCHES...JANUARY 29-30 1936
Click to expand...

Yes please.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Thats incredible that CAE had 9" of snow on Dec 10, 1958. I need to look up that storm and try to find some more info about it
Click to expand...

My mom told me told me about this storm a couple of times. She was about 12 years old, and she recalled her and her siblings talking about the depth of the snow. They'd never seen anything like it until February '73.

By the way, there were two good snowstorms in '73. There was a 4" snowstorm in January, and then, of course, the "Great Southern Snowstorm" in February.
 
tonysc said:
Yeah the February 2010 I-20 special. Good snowstorm, and just the kind I like....snow from start to finish and every flake sticking.
Click to expand...

Who can forget that one, tony?! Loved that particular storm. I lost lots of sleep following it for 9 or 10 days. The path of that particular storm was similar to the February '73 storm, but if it had "bombed out," then we probably would've seen totals near the '73 superstorm.
 
That 2010 storm i was in aiken. I was working at my mother in laws when it started. It started as all snow and stuck from the first flake through the last. It was big wet and fluffy. I left as soon as it started, by the time i got home 30 minutes later there was over an inch on the groubd. That was and still is the most snow ive ever seen.

Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
Basing it on this:

TOP 10 CAE Snow Events:

16.0 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9-10 1973
11.8 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-14 1899
11.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 25-26 1914
11.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 24-25 1894
8.8 INCHES...DECEMBER 10-11 1958
8.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 12-13 2010
8.5 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-12 1895
8.1 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10-11 1912
6.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 23 1901
6.2 INCHES...JANUARY 29-30 1936
Click to expand...
I was hoping models were hinting at something.

Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
The bottom surface map doesn't match with regard to dates as it says 1948 instead of what should be 1958.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I didn't catch that and was a bit off in the look.. let me get that fixed.

Original post fixed.
 
Shawn said:
Thanks, I didn't catch that and was a bit off in the look.. let me get that fixed.

Original post fixed.
Click to expand...

YW. Yeah, I had that one actually cross central FL as a very weak low before the map you displayed. A very interesting thing is that the top 6 Columbia snows of your list all had a low cross way down south in the general vicinity of CENTRAL FL (1973 is more north-central). The next four after that (#7 through #10) all crossed further north over the NORTHERN FL peninsula. So, your best for a real blockbuster seems to be a central FL crossover and the low doing that can be quite weak.
 
GaWx said:
YW. Yeah, I had that one actually cross central FL as a very weak low before the map you displayed. A very interesting thing is that the top 6 Columbia snows of your list all had a low cross way down south in the general vicinity of CENTRAL FL (1973 is more north-central). The next four after that (#7 through #10) all crossed further north over the NORTHERN FL peninsula. So, your best for a real blockbuster seems to be a central FL crossover and the low doing that can be quite weak.
Click to expand...
Since a low crossing central fl is best for Columbia to get big snows, wouldn't the same be true for Atlanta ? Atlanta is slightly South in latitude compared to Columbia so I imagine the low would need to be just as far south for Atlanta to get big snows ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Since a low crossing central fl is best for Columbia to get big snows, wouldn't the same be true for Atlanta ? Atlanta is slightly South in latitude compared to Columbia so I imagine the low would need to be just as far south for Atlanta to get big snows ?
Click to expand...

North and central FL have both given ATL major snows a number of times. North has done it a good bit more often than central FL at ATL, which can be partially attributed to central FL crossovers being quite a bit less frequent than north FL crossovers. Also, with ATL being 200 miles west of Columbia's longitude and considering that most of these lows travel at least a little north of due east, I can see where some N FL crossovers would be cold enough for ATL but not cold enough for Columbia to get as much snow. Also, a central crossover will sometimes be too far south for ATL to get nearly as much as Columbia or even anything (examples 2/1973 nothing for ATL while huge for Columbia; 2/1914 gave Columbia ~5 times as much snow as ATL).
 
We are in trouble if we are picking the Control over the mean for our chances. :(
 
Flo said:
I was hoping models were hinting at something.

Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
They are if you like heat! Or if you believe the GEFS
 
Well one thing I know for sure with how the models have gone lately (and by lately I mean the last few years) is we're going to have to wait a while longer before finding out on February. They don't usually show fantasy storms anymore, when a storm usually shows it's likely going to stick, with a few tweaks.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top