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Pattern February Discussion

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Yeah not sure any impact really on first system in regards to winter outloom but definitely different
 
00z must be the time for GFS to set new trends or something idk.


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Yup, 0z GFS is noticeably different than it's 18z run...it noticeably different with the 12z Euro OP as well.

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Still looking severe-esk for next Tuesday though. But this run goes to show how volatile each run is even 5 days out.

Probably a trash run.


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0z GFS is faster than it's 18z run and faster than 12z Euro OP

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Phil in Gainesville gets a near freeze 2/11 after a high on 2/10 only near 50 per the 0Z GFS.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I thought that was our winter weather time frame ?
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It was but things have changed, unfortunately. The models are constantly changing beyond like 120 hours though, so considering that there may be a low, we must still watch the period.


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Who wants to start the severe threat thead? I know it's a tad out there, but it's far more likely than a Winter storm.
 
Fwiw, the 0z GEFS is the coldest run for the 6-10 period in a couple of days. Also, the 11-15 is looking halfway decent as far as it looking rather chilly with an upper trough.
 
So, how did the 0z GFS show two cutters? The 0z CMC is little bit better at first but it has that second system catching up. That second cutter on the 0z GFS was supposed to be our winter storm maker.

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I'll take a quick look at the 500 MB maps and trough maps but I think the reason why it cuts is because there is no eastern trough.

Edit: yep. flat flow will be a cutter no matter what, there is a way of fixing this but it's doubtful it happens. with the strength of the pacific this is going to be a pattern that favors cutters.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'll take a quick look at the 500 MB maps and trough maps but I think the reason why it cuts is because there is no eastern trough.

Edit: yep. flat flow will be a cutter no matter what, there is a way of fixing this but it's doubtful it happens. with the strength of the pacific this is going to be a pattern that favors cutters.
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Would the energy/threats even be coming in without the setup though?

Man, this does blow, but all is not lost yet. The first half of Feb will likely suck, but we can score as the pattern shifts by Mid-Month. All it takes is for a boardwide 3-5 inch snow/sleet event + to make many happy.
 
Better look up at 500mb on 0z Euro OP. That's our winter storm over CO. Hopefully that first system will push it further south at the same time the cold air is moving in from the NW.
26897b908d95b5c45a2e881366c2a1b8.jpg


Edit: NICE! Way better improvement. Just need the low little further south.

052978e8b05a483bd6a8435087629eb3.jpg


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I'll be damned. That is a big change NorthGAWinterWx.
 
Still warm for the majority of the SE, but it was nice to see the Low "disconnect" and try to get organized better for us down here.
 
Shawn said:
I'll be damned. That is a big change NorthGAWinterWx.
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Yes indeed it's a big change...that's what I've been wanting to see. I'd like to see that first system little further north and east to allow that colder air to get in here. If that doesn't work then the second system may come in here at the same time the cold air does. Timing is crucial.

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They both, GFS and ECMWF form secondary lows along the gulf with high pressure moving in from the nw. A good trend and a setup that could merit a quality winter event for some of us.


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bouncycorn said:
They both, GFS and ECMWF form secondary lows along the gulf with high pressure moving in from the nw. A good trend and a setup that could merit a quality winter event for some of us.


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The only thing in question is the warm air the low is pulling in. That would cause severe weather somewhere, and if the cold was south 200 miles, the northern end would get snow, but we would have to worry a bit about warm noses since there isn't a high to the north of us when that low comes though, only in Missouri. But regardless, I do believe that 12Z will be another change, just let's hope it is towards a snow event rather than a severe one.
ecmwf_T850_seus_9.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
The only thing in question is the warm air the low is pulling in. That would cause severe weather somewhere, and if the cold was south 200 miles, the northern end would get snow, but we would have to worry a bit about warm noses since there isn't a high to the north of us when that low comes though, only in Missouri. But regardless, I do believe that 12Z will be another change, just let's hope it is towards a snow event rather than a severe one.
ecmwf_T850_seus_9.png
Click to expand...

Yeah if the initial low continues to trend north and the high moves in quickly then the secondary will probably trend further south.


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And even better if the trough deepens a bit. ☃️


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I see some are trying to find a needle in the haystack...Which I hope is found and comes true...


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whatalife said:
I see some are trying to find a needle in the haystack...Which I hope is found and comes true...


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Yep, right now there is nothing that really looks promising unless there is something dramatic change. A flat flow is not going to get it done. The system on the 9-10th is hardly cold and lags behind the moisture if it gets here at all.
 
metwannabe said:
Lol nice.... but hey Friday is looking a tad more interesting for us, not much but it's something
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Can't say that I'm not excited about the south trend of the models but I know the damn 4k NAM will win and this will be north of me. Should give us something to talk about on the live show though
 
SD said:
Can't say that I'm not excited about the south trend of the models but I know the damn 4k NAM will win and this will be north of me. Should give us something to talk about on the live show though
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To quote you.... oh so close

6c536bdc5f956dc263d44c0dc9ab50f7.jpg


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Looks like some of that would be zr.

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SD said:
Can't say that I'm not excited about the south trend of the models but I know the damn 4k NAM will win and this will be north of me. Should give us something to talk about on the live show though
Click to expand...

It this trends warmer or north I'm assuming the live show would not be family friendly?! Lol
 
What came to my mind is that if it becomes a winter storm it will be a good one. If the timing is right, the winter storm will be coming into an unstable airmass from the severe weather. The snow will be heavy, dense and wet. Keep in mind that, the timing has to be just right for it to come in while the air mass is still unstable. If it doesn't come in while the airmass is still unstable it can still be able to produce some decent snow. Can you image severe weather to a winter storm?

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png
much better low placement, need further south to match up with euro
 
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