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Pattern February Discussion

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Oddly that 1050+ high dropping in weakens to 1029 by 6 hours. That is, well, odd.
 
packfan98 said:
It's a thread the needle event for sure. The cold air needs to stick around and the precipitation needs to be a little faster. Definitely a better run than 12z though.
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The high is over Bermuda when the precip starts, this just ain't looking like a big threat, as modeled on GFS
 
Shawn said:
Looks like there is a tendency to flatten it, weaken the wave on this run. Maybe we will see a slower solution over time as the GFS tends to be too quick.

That 1050+ high moving across could help make a big Winter event for a chunk of the SE if it can slow.
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That's funny, I was thinking it could speed up and give us some nice overrunning instead of a big system.
 
This run is setting up for a storm possibly towards Wed-Thur that week.. kinda like what the 12z ecmwf hinted (strong high retrograding into the area with a rocky low forming underneath). The GFS has been insanely inconsistent though... the models are all having a tough time. We may have a totally different solution tomorrow.
 
Here comes second system, let's see what it does
 
Nice looking setup setting up at 198... We could have a better winter storm during the 10th or so (maybe sooner).

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204 is setting up for at least a good upper south winter storm....unless the PV event in the northeast moves out quickly.
 
It's not going to be a perfect look right now. It's just a rough "sketch" if you will. Definitely the look I want to see.

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