Do you go by Packbacker on the other board!?Gawd I hope this is a bad dream:
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Pattern February Discussion
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pcbjr
Member
Last edited:
MJO is staying close to the circle and may go to 8 = hope springs eternal LOL
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The big 1/7-8/1988 SE sleet and snow had a +AO and +NAO but it also had a favorable for cold inside COD phase 8-7:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198801.phase.90days.gif
pcbjr
Member
With you 100% (even in Hogtown!)
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
But seriously. What's up with the models showing the great setups having too warm temps?
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
The Euro might be having its bias play a factor with that good look I saw on the Euro but I'm not sure why I saw that look I saw on the GFS last night after these storms that was too warm at the surface but looked good climatologically.
whatalife
Moderator
I don't know...Maybe because we live in the SE 
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Read down below the image on this page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
Storm tracks will be from the Pacific NW to the Great Lakes region and another track, storms will take is from the Pacific NW, down to the Plains and on out to the SE region and up the eastern seaboard.
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Storm tracks will be from the Pacific NW to the Great Lakes region and another track, storms will take is from the Pacific NW, down to the Plains and on out to the SE region and up the eastern seaboard.
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pcbjr
Member
Yup ....I don't know...Maybe because we live in the SE
packfan98
Moderator
Did the EPS snow mean improve over the previous run?
whatalife
Moderator
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
It's because the ecmwf op has a straight pacific flow for most of us
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packfan98
Moderator
Cold air seems a little a little further south so far on GFS. Let's see what the old 18z brings us today!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I don't think this one is going to cut because of the PV event I'm seeing in the Northeast/Canada. But who knows.
Popcorn is back posting, you know there's a legit threat now! Bet the happy hour GFS has a big winter storm for NC!
packfan98
Moderator
It's a thread the needle event for sure. The cold air needs to stick around and the precipitation needs to be a little faster. Definitely a better run than 12z though.
Looks like there is a tendency to flatten it, weaken the wave on this run. Maybe we will see a slower solution over time as the GFS tends to be too quick.
That 1050+ high moving across could help make a big Winter event for a chunk of the SE if it can slow.
That 1050+ high moving across could help make a big Winter event for a chunk of the SE if it can slow.
packfan98
Moderator
It doesn't really cut. The system never digs enough to get to the gulf and be a Miller A. It moves due east and gets strung out before reforming up the coast. If the timing was a bit faster and the system was at least 50 miles further south, there would be a nice overrunning southern slider event. Still time...
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