• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
There is some differences between the 18z GFS and 12z Euro. I'm not too sure about that 18z run.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
always done if he scores Friday we ban him

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yep. I think far northern nc and southern VA might do ok Friday morning to at least see a little wet snow falling. Above freezing surface probably kills much if any accumulation. Down this way warm nose kills the day

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
The reason why I've been going with the Euro is because the GFS has been agreeing with the Euro. I don't want to say that the 0z will have something different, I would have compare the 12z Euro OP and its ensemble with the 0z to determine if the 0z will have something different as the first system comes about.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The reason why I've been going with the Euro is because the GFS has been agreeing with the Euro. I don't want to say that the 0z will have something different, I would have compare the 12z Euro OP and its ensemble with the 0z to determine if the 0z will have something different as the first system comes about.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It has been proven time and time again the Euro is still King and that won't change until we start funding and getting serious about our suite of modeling.

With that said, yes it does miss. It usually misses quite bad when it does in areas outside the Southeast. But the GFS is as bad with the big misses more often than not. We don't notice it "as much" around here with Winter because we are the South. But other populated areas do see it a lot more and seems they put most of their trust into the Euro.

I like to see a storm potential on the Euro at day 4+ much more than the GFS. No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
 
Shawn said:
No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
Click to expand...
Agree - but the big problem is that the Euro never seems to give much daily hope - it's problem is that it's actually realistic (vs the GFS op), and ergo, very seldom gives a reason to crack a cold one .. but when it does ... YUP!
 
pcbjr said:
Agree - but the big problem is that the Euro never seems to give much daily hope - it's problem is that it's actually realistic (vs the GFS op), and ergo, very seldom gives a reason to crack a cold one .. but when it does ... YUP!
Click to expand...

AND it runs 2 times versus 4 times a day. So I get how we see so many "radical changes" from the GFS. The Euro would have more wild looks if we had 4 cracks a day at it too.
 
Shawn said:
It has been proven time and time again the Euro is still King and that won't change until we start funding and getting serious about our suite of modeling.

With that said, yes it does miss. It usually misses quite bad when it does in areas outside the Southeast. But the GFS is as bad with the big misses more often than not. We don't notice it "as much" around here with Winter because we are the South. But other populated areas do see it a lot more and seems they put most of their trust into the Euro.

I like to see a storm potential on the Euro at day 4+ much more than the GFS. No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
Click to expand...
It just depends with on the model. The Euro has been over performing the GFS. If the GFS was over performing the Euro, I'd go with the GFS as the primary model. With this setup, the Euro has been good. This is why I compare model runs to determine which model is over performing. Sometimes the GFS does over perform the Euro.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
It has been proven time and time again the Euro is still King and that won't change until we start funding and getting serious about our suite of modeling.

With that said, yes it does miss. It usually misses quite bad when it does in areas outside the Southeast. But the GFS is as bad with the big misses more often than not. We don't notice it "as much" around here with Winter because we are the South. But other populated areas do see it a lot more and seems they put most of their trust into the Euro.

I like to see a storm potential on the Euro at day 4+ much more than the GFS. No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
Click to expand...

Fact! Agree 100%.......... I think I seen a tweet from Ryan Maue today that we may finally get some funding for US models......

  1. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19h19 hours ago
    But w/focus on 4D-Var, faster computers & hopefully support by White House & Congress = Make America's
    1f1fa-1f1f8.png
    Weather Models Great (Finally)

    2 replies5 retweets20 likes

  2. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19h19 hours ago
    Decisions made by gov't agency employees consigned U.S. weather enterprise to third rate methods, junk computers & a lost decade.

    2 replies7 retweets15 likes

  3. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19h19 hours ago
    With how much our economy/GDP is affected by weather, it's baffling to me why American weather models aren't the best ... actually it's not.

    3 replies2 retweets7 likes

  4. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19h19 hours ago
    Only in private sector could I show definitively thru @weatherbell the value of ECMWF products ... taking advantage of Twitter to show maps

    2 replies2 retweets5 likes
 
Shawn said:
It has been proven time and time again the Euro is still King and that won't change until we start funding and getting serious about our suite of modeling.

With that said, yes it does miss. It usually misses quite bad when it does in areas outside the Southeast. But the GFS is as bad with the big misses more often than not. We don't notice it "as much" around here with Winter because we are the South. But other populated areas do see it a lot more and seems they put most of their trust into the Euro.

I like to see a storm potential on the Euro at day 4+ much more than the GFS. No, I'm not a Euro fan boy, but I sure as Hell trust it much more than the GFS for us down here, especially in the Winter.
Click to expand...
If that's the case why do some forecasters, Jame Spann for instance, tend to base their forecast on the GFS ?
 
pcbjr said:
or skewered? LOL

although, being out of the realm of any winter weather this late and this far down here, the 18Z does give me some nice cold (until tomorrow's runs)
Click to expand...

Gainesville has had about the coldest anomalies in the 11-15 in the entire US for the last 3 GFS runs fwiw.
 
GaWx said:
Gainesville has had about the coldest anomalies in the 11-15 in the entire US for the last 3 GFS runs fwiw.
Click to expand...
Yup and enjoying the eye candy (and the past week!) - it is a unique location
 
Last edited:
SoutheastRidge said:
If that's the case why do some forecasters, Jame Spann for instance, tend to base their forecast on the GFS ?
Click to expand...
My guesses:
1) Goofy is the American model and they prefer to be pro-American weather modelwise.
2) It goes out 16 days 4 times a day.
 
Pretty good agreement for a nice cold shot coming late next week into the next weekend the euro is the least emphatic about it. Regardless it will be a quick in and out shot of cold with the pacific jet once again flooding the nation with mild air.
 
Based from the EPS, tonight's 0z GFS run will be fun after the first system.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
always done if he scores Friday we ban him

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Y'all are killing me.... but better not ban me, my pics might be the only snow you see Lol

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
No this has been a 100% nina winter with the cold in the NW and warm east
Click to expand...
I thought Niñas brought a lot of cold and dry NW flow to the East? With the outside chance of brutal cold( single digit lows for most of upper SE)? I thought I heard that going into this winter
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If that's the case why do some forecasters, Jame Spann for instance, tend to base their forecast on the GFS ?
Click to expand...
He rarely relies on the GFS. You will almost always see him call the Euro the "more reliable" model....this is the case until it shows something he doesn't want to discuss at the time, then he will refer to whatever model fits his thinking.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The reason why I've been going with the Euro is because the GFS has been agreeing with the Euro. I don't want to say that the 0z will have something different, I would have compare the 12z Euro OP and its ensemble with the 0z to determine if the 0z will have something different as the first system comes about.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Lawd have mercy....smh
 
Tarheel1 said:
I thought Niñas brought a lot of cold and dry NW flow to the East? With the outside chance of brutal cold( single digit lows for most of upper SE)? I thought I heard that going into this winter
Click to expand...
Well it did for the 10 days or so the pacific cooperated but generally I would say a nina favors the +EPO/-PNA couplet with a warm east
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top