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Pattern February Discussion

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I feel as maybe models could show big Weenie run soon again, so close to something big.
 
Gawd I hope this is a bad dream:
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I bet there will be an interesting EPS run today. Nice looks on the 12z Euro deterministic run.

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I keep thinking what the GFS and Euro did with the last storm this far out and if this is a repeat. One showing it further north and the other further south, only for them both to end up shifting as we got closer.
 
12z eps supports the op with a much further south look vs the gfs and gefs . Gfs vs euro again

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the eps is extremely active and supports the gefs idea of two systems between the 4th-10th. Lots to work on but at least it's not boring . entertaining few weeks ahead

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Storm5 said:
the eps is extremely active and supports the gefs idea of two systems between the 4th-10th. Lots to work on but at least it's not boring . entertaining few weeks ahead

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Click to expand...

Appears to be more cutters and inland runners this go round for the second system.


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whatalife said:
Appears to be more cutters and inland runners this go round for the second system.


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more inland runners vs anything else . I'm fine with that being so far out the idea of two systems that have potential to bring SOME something wintry by the 10th is there
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Regardless of low placement, we need a strong high not only working as a physical prsssure force but also a temperature force. Right now the high looks to suppress the systems but not being any cold air skjth


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Today's EPS MJO forecast is similarly to recent runs unfavorable for cold late week 1 but favorable late week 2+. The GEFS has the NAO remaining + for 2 weeks+ and it has the AO staying + up until about day 10, at which time disagreement between members takes over. Even if the NAO and AO both remain mainly + for the next couple of weeks, keep in mind these major SE winter storms which were accompanied by +NAO/+AO:

2/1973, 1/1988, 3/1993, 3/2009, 2/2014
 
GaWx said:
Today's EPS MJO forecast is similarly to recent runs unfavorable for cold late week 1 but favorable late week 2+. The GEFS has the NAO remaining + for 2 weeks+ and it has the AO staying + up until about day 10, at which time disagreement between members takes over. Even if the NAO and AO both remain mainly + for the next couple of weeks, keep in mind these major SE winter storms which were accompanied by +NAO/+AO:

2/1973, 1/1988, 3/1993, 3/2009, 2/2014
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MJO is staying close to the circle and may go to 8 = hope springs eternal LOL

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GaWx said:
Today's EPS MJO forecast is similarly to recent runs unfavorable for cold late week 1 but favorable late week 2+. The GEFS has the NAO remaining + for 2 weeks+ and it has the AO staying + up until about day 10, at which time disagreement between members takes over. Even if the NAO and AO both remain mainly + for the next couple of weeks, keep in mind these major SE winter storms which were accompanied by +NAO/+AO:

2/1973, 1/1988, 3/1993, 3/2009, 2/2014
Click to expand...
bouncycorn said:
Cold air is air with low heat content. Air with less kinetic motion. In this context, I was talking about 850mb temps below 0C.


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I was being rhetorical!
 
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