• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I just looked over the 12z Euro OP. The second system is still there. That HP that comes down at hrs 210-222 comes down too fast and it squishies the 2nd system and makes it dissipate. That energy you see in the Pacific NW at hr 180 on the 12z Euro OP is the second system as the first system pulls to the NE it pulls the energy to the SW. We'll see what the ensemble showes later.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
only 4 members are excited . this is through day 11
844911efd77fba8fd769de2d36532b6d.jpg
9582a2c36d0b711980466b0c6cb6a41f.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
EPS sucks for the most part through Day 10. I mean, there are a couple storm members in the SE. But there is one member that is skewing the mean.
 
I'm not that familiar with the MJO, I'm more of a model analyzer as y'all can tell from my posts. Lol. I mean we'll probably have another warm up after the 13th-15th or so then it will get cold again latter half of Feb. into March. The pattern we've been in this winter, I can see that happening.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'm not that familiar with the MJO, I'm more of a model analyzer as y'all can tell from my posts. Lol. I mean we'll probably have another warm up after the 13th-15th or so then it will get cold again latter half of Feb. into March. The pattern we've been in this winter, I can see that happening.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
You do understand how important things like the MJO, teleconnections, strat, etc are to a forecast, right?
 
DaculaWeather said:
You do understand how important things like the MJO, teleconnections, strat, etc are to a forecast, right?
Click to expand...
Yes, those are part of making a forecast. I make my forecasts by teleconnections, wind patterns, 500mb heights, and model analyzing.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
I'm more of that "old school" weather forecaster (I'm not a old man though lol) I look for patterns and go from there and changes in modeling. My style in weather forecasting is different than the typical standard forecasting.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Not good...from Robert at WxSouth
Well the potential storm on Sunday has gone "poof" for the most part. The west flow (zonal flow) is just too strong, the cold air will be fleeting quickly Sunday. Everything on the timing and its trajectory is just bad for snow for most. However, northern Kentucky to West Virginia and maybe northwest Virginia, western Maryland will get some quick flakes. This system is so fast moving and westerly though, the moisture will vanish quickly once its east of the mountain chain in Virginia, NC and SC...with most of it's moisture falling WEST of the mountains. Following this system, there will be another major Warm up coming. It will feel like Spring (kind of like today in the Southeast, but much warmer). With temps early and mid next week soaring into the 60s and 70s all over the Southeast with the 70 reaching as far as TN and NC with even near 80 or above for southern Georgia and Florida. We're just in a very warm pattern. Of course, it will cool down again, but it's pretty far out there. The drought is still very much in play as well in the Southeast, and expanding quickly in the central , southern Plains and the Midwest. Wish I had better news for Winter lovers, but for now, we'll have to wait a while before another shot.
Image: The January 2017 temperature rankings. It was a very warm January , with many areas having a top 5 Warmest January ever recorded. No surprise, as we saw this coming in middle January
 
Stormlover said:
Not good...from Robert at WxSouth
Well the potential storm on Sunday has gone "poof" for the most part. The west flow (zonal flow) is just too strong, the cold air will be fleeting quickly Sunday. Everything on the timing and its trajectory is just bad for snow for most. However, northern Kentucky to West Virginia and maybe northwest Virginia, western Maryland will get some quick flakes. This system is so fast moving and westerly though, the moisture will vanish quickly once its east of the mountain chain in Virginia, NC and SC...with most of it's moisture falling WEST of the mountains. Following this system, there will be another major Warm up coming. It will feel like Spring (kind of like today in the Southeast, but much warmer). With temps early and mid next week soaring into the 60s and 70s all over the Southeast with the 70 reaching as far as TN and NC with even near 80 or above for southern Georgia and Florida. We're just in a very warm pattern. Of course, it will cool down again, but it's pretty far out there. The drought is still very much in play as well in the Southeast, and expanding quickly in the central , southern Plains and the Midwest. Wish I had better news for Winter lovers, but for now, we'll have to wait a while before another shot.
Image: The January 2017 temperature rankings. It was a very warm January , with many areas having a top 5 Warmest January ever recorded. No surprise, as we saw this coming in middle January
Click to expand...
Robert surely knows his stuff ... but he does leave the window open for the 2nd half of Feb - here I am grasping at straws and trying to find a glass not half full or half empty, but just with something in it :confused:
 
I think we're done here. The pacific flow is just going to be too strong.

Hope I'm wrong but that's what it looks like.
 
That final piece of energy would need to hold back a bit and turn into something like one of those ULLs, otherwise I think we're most likely done, unless you're in TN/NC.
 
let's hope for a big shift in the models like we saw 48 hours ago . these resent runs are horrible

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
accu35 said:
Best part of living in the Southeast, you never know what you going to get
Click to expand...
Yes but I'd rather live in the northeast knowing I was going to see feet of snow
GeorgiaGirl said:
That final piece of energy would need to hold back a bit and turn into something like one of those ULLs, otherwise I think we're most likely done, unless you're in TN/NC.
Click to expand...
Even way up here in northern middle Tennessee I'm starting to get worried this could turn out to be the worst winter in my ten years of living here. That said I will never give up hope till the second week of March.
 
If what I'm seeing in the long haul verifies, this tops 12/13 in how bad winter was.

The silver lining is it was followed by back to back cold winters.
 
gfs_asnow_us_38.png
not as great as the 12z but still has potential to come south abit more. Low crossing MO vrs Ark this run. Oz tonight should be interesting enough to see if we can see a south trend or not. I'm just bored lol.
 
accu35 said:
gfs_asnow_us_38.png
not as great as the 12z but still has potential to come south abit more. Low crossing MO vrs Ark this run. Oz tonight should be interesting enough to see if we can see a south trend or not. I'm just bored lol.
Click to expand...
Yeah your bored , the low isn't coming south IF that H5 look verifies . it ends up in SE canada
bdd1c91a37799e5684cb625fbb73b949.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Uh, the only difference between 12z and 18z was this became a triple phaser (or at least a phaser) earlier. The energy doesn't hold. Maybe it holds back and becomes one of those unicorn ULLs, but this is really grasping at straws and I couldn't care less for those things.
 
0Z and 6Z were relative and 12Z and 18Z were too, but the storm track is far from being known, however we all know trying to get that track back south is like throwing a frisbee into the ocean and calling it to come back.
 
accu35 said:
I'm just bored
Click to expand...
Restraint lost. Can't have boredom or gloom. Not in January (which it still is for 6 hours LOL).
So - here's a kiddie ditty that, if you listen, more or less captures the emotion of model watching (sort of a "hang in there with tragedy seeming to loom" motif)

 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top