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Pattern February Discussion

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Storm5 said:
you just said you didn't think it comes right after the 6th . now your saying it starts around the 7th . lol





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We may see the system early as the 7th but I don't think it will be over the Plains on the 7th. We may see the system in the Pacific NW on the 7th dropping down into the Plains by the 8th-9th getting in here by the 10th.

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Storm5 said:
that's the whole point. why the hell would anyone get too excited about the day 8-10 system when the first one is bouncing all over the damn place

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That's how people roll these days.

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Only 1 GEFS member has a setup that'd bring snow to the deep south lol. The setup is pretty bad honestly.. a pacific flow aloft will never merit snow. You need a strong strong western ridge OR a monster high to the northwest (through the plains)
 
whatalife said:
How about heartbreak city?


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39F08B5500000578-3892454-image-m-4_1477982712481.jpg
 
Shawn said:
Okay Larry. Here is some more dates for CAE of 1 inch or more. I am sure there were many many more sleet/zr events, and a good chunk of data is missing for the older stuff on my source:

2/23/1901 6.3
2/10/1912 1.6
2/11/1912 6.5
2/25/1914 1
2/26/1914 9.9
2/21/1936 6.2
2/13/1958 1.7
2/9/1967 1
2/9/1973 1.4
2/10/1973 12.3
2/18/1979 3.7
2/6/1980 5.5
2/23/1989 4.3
2/12/2010 3.4
2/12/2014 1.5
1889-02-22 2.1
1894-02-24 1
1894-02-25 1.1
1894-12-28 10.2
1895-02-11 5
1895-02-12 3.1
1899-02-12 4.9
1899-02-13 3.4
1899-02-14 6.8
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Thanks, Shawn.
Here is the date breakdown for CAE 1"+ Feb. snows based on your list:

6, 9, 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, 11-14, 12, 12-13, 13, 18, 21, 22, 23, 23, 24-5, 25-6

I see two clumps: 9-14 (bolded 8 events) and 21-26 (underlined 6 events). Only one event first week. Also, only one event 15th-20th. Fascinating!
 
Last edited:
Just a reminder to everyone: Tonight's 00z run will be exactly 7 days ahead of Monday. Last event, the models FIRST started showing "consistent" winter weather for that friday 7 days out (00z Dec. 29). Still plenty of time for this first system to juice up.
 
Also at this exact frame from the event, the models were at best hinting at a CAD event. ECMWF was north with the system. Again, don't discount the first system.
 
In fact, the GFS/GEFS dropped the storm for a while and brought a different storm in on the weekend after that Friday, then brought the storm back together at day 5. Kinda similar to the trend sequence with the system we are looking at for 2 weeks. We track!
 
bouncycorn said:
In fact, the GFS/GEFS dropped the storm for a while and brought a different storm in on the weekend after that Friday, then brought the storm back together at day 5. Kinda similar to the trend sequence with the system we are looking at for 2 weeks. We track!
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When GFS/GFES shows a storm, drops it, and finds it again - good signal usually
 
I just now looked at the 12z Euro EPS...the timing looks way better than 18z GFS OP. For now, I think there won't be much in the way of winter weather, for MS, AL and GA with that first system. For now, I still think northern, NE TN, parts of NC and far upstate SC (and maybe far NE GA) could start off with freezing rain/sleet changing to all rain.

Also, it appears that the first system will be a quick mover, exiting the SE region by the 6th if timing holds true from GFS OP. Euro EPS also agrees with the timing of 18z GFS with that first system.

The EPS has the second system dropping in the Plains by the 8th (much more realistic timing IMO). The EPS has the low over the east by 9th-10th.

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