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Pattern February Discussion

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It seems like the fast flow is the culprit to a lot of our problems as well as models staying consistent for any long period of time. Hoping the EPO can at least help us out or that we can get some blocking to do the trick next month.
 
IMO we are done with realistic winter weather chances in the Southeast though I don't think we will necessarily torch. It'll be two back to back lousy winters for some of us but eventually our luck will change provided that this is not "the new normal".



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Just to let an admin know, the notifications aren't working on Tapatalk. Ever since the software was upgraded the notifications have stopped. The issue is not on Tapatalk.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Just to let an admin know, the notifications aren't working on Tapatalk. Ever since the software was upgraded the notifications have stopped. The issue is not on Tapatalk.

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Tapatalk is the most annoying app man has ever created. We can't help it. I do know our other admins are using it with no notification issues though.

Anyone else?
 
Storm5 said:
I woke up signed on and found people punting winter in January and blaming global warming . Is it too early to drink
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Yes! B/c historical winter wx only increases in February for most on this board...So punting winter on January 27th makes a lot of sense...LOL!


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Shawn said:
Tapatalk is the most annoying app man has ever created. We can't help it. I do know our other admins are using it with no notification issues though.

Anyone else?
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Wait, for some reason it's working now. I tested it on another forum. After I got a notification on the other forum and then I got the notification from here. It better stay working now. Anyway, I'm back to the 12z GFS.

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I mean do we have a reasonable signal that winter weather is coming?


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SD said:
This MJO battle should be epic to watch
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1) SD has an excellent point. The EPS today (and yesterday for that matter) clearly has the MJO headed toward locations that are associated with warmth in the SE, including the absolute warmest, phase 5 outside the circle. Afterward, however, it moves (2/8+) to areas that have the best cold tendencies, which is largely supported by the less skillful GEFS. So, don't fret yet, folks.

EPS MJO:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

GEFS MJO:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif

2) Chris (Delta) hitting it out of the park this morning IMO with a series of nice posts.

3) I doubt global warming is the major factor behind the SE being close to 10 F warmer than normal for January through 1/25. The globe is at most 2-3 F warmer than it was 100 years ago from what I've seen. Also, 30 year normals are updated every decade. Regardless, how can one prove the connection to any specific weather event? Interestingly, January has warmed very little in the SE US over the last 100+ years.
 
ATLwxfan said:
I mean do we have a reasonable signal that winter weather is coming?


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it's the southeast we never really have a resonance signal until inside 5 days

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I'm confused on the idea about this displacement that's supposively happening right now. All the "good mets" are really talking about it. What's so good about a ssw displacement? :(
 
I honestly don't know why anyone is putting any stock in or giving any consideration/credence to the GEFS MJO forecasts... The model's convective tropical convective schemes and skill scores are beyond atrocious, in fact at one of the talks at AMS, the GFS completely loses any medium-high frequency equatorial wave structures beyond 4-5 days, it's very sad. I really don't pay attention to its forecasts unless there's an MJO event already in progress over the Pacific Ocean.
 
Golferwhotries said:
I'm confused on the idea about this displacement that's supposively happening right now. All the "good mets" are really talking about it. What's so good about a ssw displacement? :(
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They can, depending on strength, placement, blocking and other variables too numerous to set out here, cause the arctic/polar air to be "shoved" southward (or towards Russia - it's a function of variables). They are not a panacea, but when other mechanisms line up, they can produce cold air into the CONUS, which can then get into the SE. I'll see if I can find an article during lunch to supplement this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I honestly don't know why anyone is putting any stock in or giving any consideration/credence to the GEFS MJO forecasts... The model's convective tropical convective schemes and skill scores are beyond atrocious, in fact at one of the talks at AMS, the GFS completely loses any medium-high frequency equatorial wave structures beyond 4-5 days, it's very sad. I really don't pay attention to its forecasts unless there's an MJO event already in progress over the Pacific Ocean.
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That's why I always emphasize that the EPS is far more accurate than the GEFS for MJO forecasting. Even it is far from foolproof as even it hasn't exactly been stellar this winter. But the GEFS has been its typical atrocious self. I referenced the GEFS only to say that it fairly closely agrees with the EPS toward the end of the two week forecast. Now that I think about it, maybe that doesn't bode well for the EPS out two weeks. ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
I honestly don't know why anyone is putting any stock in or giving any consideration/credence to the GEFS MJO forecasts... The model's convective tropical convective schemes and skill scores are beyond atrocious, in fact at one of the talks at AMS, the GFS completely loses any medium-high frequency equatorial wave structures beyond 4-5 days, it's very sad. I really don't pay attention to its forecasts unless there's an MJO event already in progress over the Pacific Ocean.
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Is there another model that handles it better in your opinion?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I honestly don't know why anyone is putting any stock in or giving any consideration/credence to the GEFS MJO forecasts... The model's convective tropical convective schemes and skill scores are beyond atrocious, in fact at one of the talks at AMS, the GFS completely loses any medium-high frequency equatorial wave structures beyond 4-5 days, it's very sad. I really don't pay attention to its forecasts unless there's an MJO event already in progress over the Pacific Ocean.
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omgd 4 or 5 days ???? That's unreal

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