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Pattern February Discussion

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The 0z and 6z gfs completely eliminated the trough over the NE this allows the system to cut inland versus being suppressed south like the 18z gfs from yesterday and the euro. Like I said last night this is a thread the needle event

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The 0z and 6z gfs completely eliminated the trough over the NE this allows the system to cut inland versus being suppressed south like the 18z gfs from yesterday and the euro. Like I said last night this is a thread the needle event

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We need that trough to anchor the high to keep it suppressed.


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This is a great pattern for a Mid-Atlantic and/or NC snowstorm. We will have to hope the shortwave digs across the gulf states to get the SE in play. For now the EPS supports the mid Atlantic, with the shortwave over Kentucky...the storm is now showing up on EPS mean 500mb anomaly maps, so there's definitely support for what we are seeing on the OP runs - even if the snow map members don't look that great.

Ridging on the west coast connecting to the N AK/Russian ridge, confluence swinging down south of the Hudson and a shortwave on the means, can't get better than that this far out.

I mentioned on Tuesday on AmWx that I liked Feb 6-7 and to wait until Jan 27 when we get into Day 10 range and here we are - this pattern screamed east coast snowstorm when many on AmWx were trying to sell torching. Lets real it in boys.

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as you said confluence from the northern stream is key. problem I have right now Is there isn't alot of ensemble support . gefs supports a cutting system in various ways from a straight lakes cutter to an inland runner over southern Georgia. the eps has the same general idea with a system that cuts .

we really need the northern stream to slow down by like 12-18 hours . I'm not sold on any solution at this point. if it's gonna cut or run inland I want it to do so early on . I would like nothing more than to watch a low go right over the mid Atlantic.

Lots of potential , but as always timing is everything . Ride or die

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After looking at the overnight modeling I don't see a lot of reason for people to punt winter. We might see a chance or 2 in the first half of the month then the 2nd half could be really nice

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Really like the potential between the 5th-11th...Looks like we have a shot at two systems during this timeframe...Should be a fun week ahead of watching the models and ensembles for guidance.


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After looking at the overnight modeling I don't see a lot of reason for people to punt winter. We might see a chance or 2 in the first half of the month then the 2nd half could be really nice

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yep and as you mentioned the euro mjo argues a fun finish to winter

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With the first system, I don't think we'll see much in the way of winter weather here in GA. Maybe you guys up there in NC will get some winter weather with that first system. I'm watching the 10th-12th time frame maybe even into the 14th.

Yup, sure enough...it's going to be a fun weekend and all week model observing.

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Warm ground temps are going to impact any freezing drizzle accumulation here in ATL


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A bombing 50/50 and/or blocking are two excellent ways to get confluence in the right area. Unfortunately, we will probably have neither. Therefore, it will come down to timing, which we can get with some luck. The concern, other than timing, is that the PV cold press is usually overmodeled in the LR, particularly when no blocking is present.

RE: sun angle, that can be easily mitigated with thick clouds, heavy snow, and temps in the 20s! :)
 
JB says the euro is wrong , move along from se to ma .Expect a blizzard now

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That's from the weeklies, weeklies showed a blizzard, upper mid west down to NW upper Plains. Just a trailing cold front with rain showers SE to NE.
I can't say too much about the weeklies cause I'm not a allowed to.

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I don't care what anyone says. Sun angle is a big factor. Yes it can be overcome by heavy rates and/or super cold temps. But if it's snowing light to moderately during the daytime with temps hovering around 32 you can forget about much accumulation past Feb 15 or so. I literally have not seen any decent accumulation IMBY after Feb 15 in over 20 years. The latest I've seen decent accumulation in that time period was the Feb 2010 snow. So unless you live in TN, NC, or North of ATL, it's going to take a freak event like March 09 or March 93 to see snow past mid feb.
 
That's from the weeklies, weeklies showed a blizzard, upper mid west down to NW upper Plains. Just a trailing cold front with rain showers SE to NE.
I can't say too much about the weeklies cause I'm not a allowed to.

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lol why can't you say anything about the weeklies .

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I don't care what anyone says. Sun angle is a big factor. Yes it can be overcome by heavy rates and/or super cold temps. But if it's snowing light to moderately during the daytime with temps hovering around 32 you can forget about much accumulation past Feb 15 or so. I literally have not seen any decent accumulation IMBY after Feb 15 in over 20 years. The latest I've seen decent accumulation in that time period was the Feb 2010 snow. So unless you live in TN, NC, or North of ATL, it's going to take a freak event like March 09 or March to see snow past mid feb.
Disagree. It's more of a factor on roads, yes, but accumulation can still pile up on grass and other surfaces, if the sun angle is all the problem is(cold ground in place)
 
Disagree. It's more of a factor on roads, yes, but accumulation can still pile up on grass and other surfaces, if the sun angle is all the problem is(cold ground in place)
Also, the later in winter it snows the harder it is to stay on the ground for a significant period of time.
 
I don't care what anyone says. Sun angle is a big factor. Yes it can be overcome by heavy rates and/or super cold temps. But if it's snowing light to moderately during the daytime with temps hovering around 32 you can forget about much accumulation past Feb 15 or so. I literally have not seen any decent accumulation IMBY after Feb 15 in over 20 years. The latest I've seen decent accumulation in that time period was the Feb 2010 snow. So unless you live in TN, NC, or North of ATL, it's going to take a freak event like March 09 or March 93 to see snow past mid feb.

While the sun angle is an issue, the fact of the matter is that winter wx climatology is actually better in March than December across a majority of the Carolinas, and a larger proportion of the storms late in the season are big dogs...
 
While the sun angle is an issue, the fact of the matter is that winter wx climatology is actually better in March than December across a majority of the Carolinas, and a larger proportion of the storms late in the season are big dogs...
It's mainly better climatologically because of that rare big storm that dumps 1-2 feet of snow. I'm sure Dec has had more individual events (mainly small events ).
 
lol why can't you say anything about the weeklies .

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Because I use Accu pro and they have an agreement saying that I can't share any images from the weeklies. It doesn't say anything talking about them but if I can't share images that
tells me I can't talk about them too much either. Even meteorologist are not even supposed to redistribute images from the weeklies.



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Because I use Accu pro and they have an agreement saying that I can't share any images from the weeklies. It doesn't say anything talking about them but if I can't share images that
tells me I can't talk about them too much either. Even meteorologist are not even supposed to redistribute images from the weeklies.



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sharing images and interpretations are two different things. there is nothing that's says people can't talk about the weeklies . I have multiple paid accounts and all three have the weeklies not one says don't talk about them . They are not secretive in the weather community

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Sun angle isn't a biggest issue. We can still get snow accumulation with a higher sun angle. The sun angle can cause faster melting after a snow storm. The ground temps are more of an issue at first. But if the snow is coming down at a decent rate the snow will overcome the ground temps. The ground temps are always an issue at first here in the south.

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Sun angle isn't a biggest issue. We can still get snow accumulation with a higher sun angle. The sun angle can cause faster melting after a snow storm. The ground temps are more of an issue at first. But if the snow is coming down at a decent rate the snow will overcome the ground temps. The ground temps are always an issue at first here in the south.

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We seem to have this discussion every year! Rates overcome all! Many a good snowstorm , has came a day or two after highs in the 60s and 70s
 
sharing images and interpretations are two different things. there is nothing that's says people can't talk about the weeklies . I have multiple paid accounts and all three have the weeklies not one says don't talk about them . They are not secretive in the weather community

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exactly, no one can tell you that you can't talk about something you've legally seen(weather info anyway, it isn't some top secret government thing). Let's not get all lawyered up;)
 
We seem to have this discussion every year! Rates overcome all! Many a good snowstorm , has came a day or two after highs in the 60s and 70s
It does seem like we have this discussion every season. I have no idea why people think sun angle is a big concern during a winter event.

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It does seem like we have this discussion every season. I have no idea why people think sun angle is a big concern during a winter event.

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Probably because the Sun angle makes it more difficult to get daytime snow accumulation. It has to snow harder to overcome the Sun angle with marginal temps
 
Probably because the Sun angle makes it more difficult to get daytime snow accumulation. It has to snow harder to overcome the Sun angle with marginal temps
It's not the huge deal you are making it out to be. We'll worry about that when we have daytime snow in late Feb or early march..until then...stop worrying about it
 
sharing images and interpretations are two different things. there is nothing that's says people can't talk about the weeklies . I have multiple paid accounts and all three have the weeklies not one says don't talk about them . They are not secretive in the weather community

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Yes, that makes since, I just never hear meteorologist talking much about the weeklies. It's just the weekly data is hard to come by with freebie sites.

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Just saw last night's Euro run. Very interesting. It was about this far out with the last storm that the models started showing the threat. Can't wait to see what it shows coming up today.
 
Low cuts inland. Even leaves TN out of anything major. :(

Tracks across Central Bama, to GA, into Upstate SC into NC. Then ends up off the coast of NC/VA
 
I have a feeling that the 12z GFS will have my storm between the 10th-13th and maybe into the 14th-15th.

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