as you said confluence from the northern stream is key. problem I have right now Is there isn't alot of ensemble support . gefs supports a cutting system in various ways from a straight lakes cutter to an inland runner over southern Georgia. the eps has the same general idea with a system that cuts .This is a great pattern for a Mid-Atlantic and/or NC snowstorm. We will have to hope the shortwave digs across the gulf states to get the SE in play. For now the EPS supports the mid Atlantic, with the shortwave over Kentucky...the storm is now showing up on EPS mean 500mb anomaly maps, so there's definitely support for what we are seeing on the OP runs - even if the snow map members don't look that great.
Ridging on the west coast connecting to the N AK/Russian ridge, confluence swinging down south of the Hudson and a shortwave on the means, can't get better than that this far out.
I mentioned on Tuesday on AmWx that I liked Feb 6-7 and to wait until Jan 27 when we get into Day 10 range and here we are - this pattern screamed east coast snowstorm when many on AmWx were trying to sell torching. Lets real it in boys.
I may go down in flames but I'm pretty excited about the month as a whole and especially the 2nd half
It can be mitigated by cloud cover - if we get some systems to slowly roll on through.
That's from the weeklies, weeklies showed a blizzard, upper mid west down to NW upper Plains. Just a trailing cold front with rain showers SE to NE.
lol why can't you say anything about the weeklies .
Disagree. It's more of a factor on roads, yes, but accumulation can still pile up on grass and other surfaces, if the sun angle is all the problem is(cold ground in place)
Also, the later in winter it snows the harder it is to stay on the ground for a significant period of time.
It's mainly better climatologically because of that rare big storm that dumps 1-2 feet of snow. I'm sure Dec has had more individual events (mainly small events ).
Because I use Accu pro and they have an agreement saying that I can't share any images from the weeklies. It doesn't say anything talking about them but if I can't share images that
sharing images and interpretations are two different things. there is nothing that's says people can't talk about the weeklies . I have multiple paid accounts and all three have the weeklies not one says don't talk about them . They are not secretive in the weather community
We seem to have this discussion every year! Rates overcome all! Many a good snowstorm , has came a day or two after highs in the 60s and 70s
exactly, no one can tell you that you can't talk about something you've legally seen(weather info anyway, it isn't some top secret government thing). Let's not get all lawyered up
It does seem like we have this discussion every season. I have no idea why people think sun angle is a big concern during a winter event.
Probably because the Sun angle makes it more difficult to get daytime snow accumulation. It has to snow harder to overcome the Sun angle with marginal temps
It's not the huge deal you are making it out to be. We'll worry about that when we have daytime snow in late Feb or early march..until then...stop worrying about it
Yes, that makes since, I just never hear meteorologist talking much about the weeklies. It's just the weekly data is hard to come by with freebie sites.
