• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
The weeklies aren't ideal but I don't think they are a disaster

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
he is quoting

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Good - Jon knows his stuff and I am encouraging him over here!

(he's also a friend so I wanted to make sure someone wasn't covering!)
 
Last edited:
I'm just now skimming through the weeklies now, their not bad at all. I like to come up with predictions 2 weeks in advanced. But even then, the models start to lose skill. It gives us a rough idea. I'm conservative about the weeklies beyond 2 weeks. The surface maps are interesting, specially 7th-14th.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
 
GaWx said:
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
Click to expand...

Leave it to Larry to bring calm to the unrest! LOL!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
Click to expand...
Thank you!
 
GaWx said:
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
Click to expand...
he said he is worried , rattled I believe was the word. When he gets concerned after going all in its serious , for him .

of course he went crazy cold for Feb. There is Zero chance his February forecast verifies.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
FWIW - Here's a copy of 1 page from DT's winter forecast published back in the fall - he may a have time machine LOL

Screen_Shot_2017_01_26_at_9_37_01_PM.png
 
whatalife said:
Leave it to Larry to bring calm to the unrest! LOL!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hehe, I figured I needed to after saying I was optimistic about the weeklies because they were based on the nice looking 0Z EPS. So much for that idea but again they're not really bad either.
 
GaWx said:
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
Click to expand...
Larry, He said if Euro MJO and weeklies were right? His forecast was in trouble.... But he's not changing his thoughts yet, he wanted to see this for a few days. said may be different tomorrow. I think he said it kinda didn't make sense with it self? I think I got this right. lol. He's concerned about the look on the JMA also....

I have not yet changed my ideas as I wish to watch this for a while, as up through the first 10 days of February , the ideas that have gotten us here have had merit. But I did not see this coming as all the things I have been showing you, suggested that the seasonal variation which usually argues for the trough further east would carry the day. The Euro says no ( it does try to bring it back in March) but the warmer idea its implying here would break the back of winter, and my forecast.



So I have alot of work in front of me, since the work in back of me, if this is right, is for naught once past Feb 10. I am not changing my ideas, I am saying to you I see all this that is plainly different from what I believe.
 
Last edited:
Golferwhotries said:
I'm curious why models and ensembles haven't adjusted to this ssw event that's underway from my understanding? Just curious
Click to expand...
so they very well could be . A ssw does not always mean favorable results by any stretch. Realistically a ssw could cause HORRIBLE downstream results for the US

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
In fact, I described one option with the PV that would effectively wrap it up on winter if it happened.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top