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Pattern February Discussion

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GaWx said:
Fwiw, climo always says to give an extra watch over the 2/10-14 period as history says that has been one of the two most active five day periods as regards major winter storm history at ATL, CAE (very active there), and much of the SE. Actually, it has been quite active there through 2/18. Miller A lows crossing north or central FL were often the culprit.
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I can vouch for that. Two or three of the biggest snowstorms I remember came in that time frame. And is it just me or did we get more Miller A type storms back in the 60's and 70's?
 
I had a little confusion at first, the first weak system showing up 3-5th time frame won't produce much winter weather. If that low comes little further south, folks across TN and western NC could see some winter weather out of that disturbance. The one we're looking at is the bigger one that could produce a board wide event.

I was thinking that the system we're looking at will occur in the 10th-14th time period. Which it could, timing could change. Matter of fact, the 12z Euro EPS is showing the system coming along later on than the 18z GFS.

The 18z GFS is showing some good blocking off to the NE and very good strong blocking out west which will dip the trough deep 10th-12th time period. This storm signal showing up could be pushed back because the pattern during that time frame looks more reasonable for this storm signal.

Also, I think it will start to trend to an all snow event because it should trend further south because according to the GFS there is a high to the NW and NE causing ridgeing, pushing the storm further south.



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Looks like the models are starting to pick up on a threat again. The GFS actually did pretty good picking up on the last storm 10 to 14 days out. Of course it didn't get the exact location of where the heaviest snow would be, but it had the general idea right. Seems we have seen this before where it starts out north, then goes south, and then trends NW the closer we get. Glad to see some potential showing up again.
 
the 12z euro and 18z gfs are almost identical with the low track days 8-10

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GFS is coming. If it loses the system, I will lose it mentally.
 
I bet the GFS will have it at a later date. 10th-14th time frame. Then again, it may not have it at all.

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This is going to be a good test for my theory...bet we end up seeing that thing in the northeast weaker and a cutter, but I hope not.

Also, the clipper looks about the same. Nice little event for Tennessee and the mountains.
 
It's still early but that NS disturbance is still as strong as it was in the 18z, and is further south too. Now if it doesn't move or weaken...

ok nvm I'm looking at the wrong thing. I figured out what I'll need to be looking at.
 
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The GFS is doing the same thing with the dynamics as it did in the 18z in the Northeast and Canada but it's weaker and faster.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This is going to be a good test for my theory...bet we end up seeing that thing in the northeast weaker and a cutter, but I hope not.

Also, the clipper looks about the same. Nice little event for Tennessee and the mountains.
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Yeah it keeps holding on to my inch to inch and a half of snow. If I get at least an inch I'll be thrilled seeing how this winter has gone so far.
 
From Robert at WxSouth and the good thing about him is he doesn't look at run to run model maps, but the overall pattern that will be in place. He's very good at this stuff.
The buzz today is all about the European and GFS potential Winter storm around 9 or 10 days from now. We actually haven't seen many of those progged this Winter, yet. Mainly because of how warm it's been. Oddly, the early January event was forecast , pretty nicely, from 10 days out, generally speaking overall. I go over the speculation and why, and how things must come together just right, with the right timing of the Southern stream system, the location of the Cold Vortex in Maine, and pressing strong cold high pressure to keep the System far to the South. There's plenty of time to watch and see how this evolves, but for now, and considering the Alaskan block again (just like in early Jan), this is a pretty interesting setup. I'm not saying break out the snow shovels just yet anywhere in the Southeast, but....Winter's not over, despite another warm up next week.
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I don't think this one is going to do it, I might be wrong but that stuff up in the northeast isn't as strong as it was in 18z. Its there but not as strong. It's hanging on though, so far.
 
H5 is much different , gonna be a much warmer run regardless of any system

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Another one of my predictions is that another low will come in behind the cutter (now as what it appears). The low that comes behind it will be the one. 10th-14th.

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Tarheel1 said:
That was a fun 6 hrs! Back to winter cancel
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This type of crap really gets old. Read what I posted from Robert at WxSouth..unlike many he doesn't live or die run to run, but looks at the big picture, the pattern, and when he's interested in winter weather in the south, you should be too.
 
Without that strong disturbance causing blocking, this system is going to phase with one coming in from Canada and cut. If there happens to be a strong disturbance causing something similar to blocking, this might not cut but this solution would cut.
 
Stormlover said:
This type of crap really gets old. Read what I posted from Robert at WxSouth..unlike many he doesn't live or die run to run, but looks at the big picture, the pattern, and when he's interested in winter weather in the south, you should be too.
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I read Roberts thoughts and he also mentioned that the last winter storm was pretty much locked in on the models at day 10-12, which is true. So the fact this one isn't locked in, probably means it won't work out,so I guess we will see
 
Tarheel1 said:
I read Roberts thoughts and he also mentioned that the last winter storm was pretty much locked in on the models at day 10-12, which is true. So the fact this one isn't locked in, probably means it won't work out,so I guess we will see
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BS, it doesn't mean that at all. Do you even know about what you are talking about? The pattern is there, the setup is there, that's what he looks at ,not some model run at face value.:rolleyes: And have you forgotten how many times, often run to run, that the last one changed in those 10 days? It was locked in to HIM, he goes by the setup, the models sure as heck weren't locked in. Wow, just wow.:eek:
 
Stormlover said:
This type of crap really gets old. Read what I posted from Robert at WxSouth..unlike many he doesn't live or die run to run, but looks at the big picture, the pattern, and when he's interested in winter weather in the south, you should be too.
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And if any of the clique would have said it, it would have been hilarious
 
Tarheel1 said:
And if any of the clique would have said it, it would have been hilarious
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There is no clique here Mack.

Well. I guess us admins are one, but that is difference. We have to deal with each other in convo 24/7. God help me.
 
Shawn said:
There is no clique here Mack.
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It's funny to me how everybody over here used to pick at Robert about his pay sight and predictions like roof crushing snows and dynamical cooling, but now he's great??
 
huge storm signal the 3rd-5th on all models . timing is everything . need the northern branch to hang on for dear life. cmc has a nice look in general . 00z gfs has a nice look in reality, it's timing is a little off which makes a huge different . I bet the gefs is gonna be sweet in a few

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If it isn't too progressive we might see a storm to set up a storm on this run, which I was thinking may happen, but I'm afraid it's going to be too progressive.

Edit: And I think this is too progressive.
 
Tarheel1 said:
It's funny to me how everybody over here used to pick at Robert about his pay sight and predictions like roof crushing snows and dynamical cooling, but now he's great??
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are you just trolling or what? You've been saying a lot of things that weren't true and just keep on with the junk.
Admins, is there a way to put someone on ignore here? Thanks.
 
Tarheel1 said:
It's funny to me how everybody over here used to pick at Robert about his pay sight and predictions like roof crushing snows and dynamical cooling, but now he's great??
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That was the other site forum before it went down. We are trying to keep an open mind here. Personally when I see his stuff (maps, tweets, fb posts), I gloss over it.
 
Stormlover said:
are you just trolling or what? You've been saying a lot of things that weren't true and just keep on with the junk.
Admins, is there a way to put someone on ignore here? Thanks.
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Go to their profile and click the "ignore" link.
 
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