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Pattern February Discussion

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gfs is about to torch days 10-15. which I'm fine with.

this day 8-10 system is starting to have legs

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Shawn said:
That was the other site forum before it went down. We are trying to keep an open mind here. Personally when I see his stuff (maps, tweets, fb posts), I gloss over it.
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Unlike JB, he focuses on the southeast, as you know, and I've seen him hit home runs MANY TIMES...I've even had meteorologists laugh at what he was saying, only to be proven wrong and him get it right...numerous times.
 
post day 10 is a furnace this run
14310932724f319e45516a47cc381757.jpg


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I'd like to point out that the 00z Canadian had the low around where the Euro & 18z GFS did. Canadian was pretty warm for us deep south folk.

I'd also like to note that the Canadian is usually ice/sleet storm happy. Take that fwiw.
 
I would like to believe that there'd be more blocking causing it to be cooler at verification time (even if it isn't THAT cold) but this pattern is progressive and fast. Without a -NAO everything is going to be thread the needle...but we knew this.

Like either the northern blocking is going to have to be just slightly weaker than depicted at 18z and hold on tight in time for a winter storm to happen or something is going to need to sneak in right after the cutter. Nothing is going to hold for long.
 
The storm is there on the GEFS mean, the blocking is there but slightly weaker, I can't get a read verbatim with the maps I have (I don't pay) but I think it'd be a good upper south winter storm. In the deep south it's not great.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The storm is there on the GEFS mean, the blocking is there but slightly weaker, I can't get a read verbatim with the maps I have (I don't pay) but I think it'd be a good upper south winter storm. In the deep south it's not great.
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Can you clarify what you consider to be upper South vs deep South ? Would you consider the North GA mountains to be deep South ?
 
If there's precip going on at 240 it might be snow in far North Alabama and North Georgia (I mean north of Atlanta). But again I can't see details since I don't pay. And at 246 it'd definitely be some sort of wintry precip.
 
Okay guys. Listen. The Euro, Canadian, 18z GFS had a system that was a Wintry threat in the same area today.

GFS had a Winter storm a couple days ago also. There is something to watch in the time-frame. Lets see what ensembles do for now and make an educated guess on it. Models are just guidance. Guidance shows a push of cold air and a wave possibly sparking something. Nothing will be detailed this far out. Ensembles will help try and piece together a system, and then we can worry about details!
 
Hey guys clicking the little "upload image" link on the forum. Make sure you copy the url of "direct link" and post as an image by clicking the image/landscape looking image by the smiley face in the post form over here.

Here are the steps:
Click the Upload Image link
On the new window, upload your image
Copy the link for "direct link"
Come back over here to the site
In the post edit box, find the smiley face, and right next to it the image button
A popup will come up to put the link in.

:)


I will talk with the other site guys tomorrow and see about just allowing image uploads on the site.
 
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4lszstvbt


Testing... can delete.. first image I posted I actually followed these steps don't know why I forgot the insert URL in the landscape box lol must be late :D
 
EastAtlwx said:
4lszstvbt


Testing... can delete.. first image I posted I actually followed these steps don't know why I forgot the insert URL in the landscape box lol must be late :D
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Yeah, you're just copying the wrong link. See where it says "direct link" use that one.
 
06z GFS operational continues 00z's idea of a lake's cutter.. only difference is colder air behind it.

The good thing is there was no support from the 00z GEFS on the lake cutter idea, instead impressive snow depth across North Carolina bulging into Georgia. Will have to see if the 06z Gefs continues disagreement with the 00z on the idea of a cutter.. anyways.. was nice to see the euro operational and control lay something nice across portions of the board. I feel like this is a upper to mid south event.. I feel The only way I'm going to get frozen precip is if a wedge develops.
 
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EastAtlwx said:
06z GFS operational continues 00z's idea of a lake's cutter.. only difference is colder air behind it.

The good thing is there was no support from the 00z GEFS on the lake cutter idea, instead impressive snow depth across North Carolina bulging into Georgia. Will have to see if the 06z Gefs continues disagreement with the 00z on the idea of a cutter.. anyways.. was nice to see the euro operational and control lay something nice across portions of the board. I feel like this is a upper to mid south event.. I feel The only way I'm going to get frozen precip is if a wedge develops.
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there were many cutters on the 00z gefs . the snow mean is skewed by 4 huge members and those are mostly ice

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The 06z GFS has my storm that I'm predicting coming down into the Plains at 324. It's not showing a winter storm yet. It has the idea.

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Interesting on the 0z EPA at the end of the run.

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This is a great pattern for a Mid-Atlantic and/or NC snowstorm. We will have to hope the shortwave digs across the gulf states to get the SE in play. For now the EPS supports the mid Atlantic, with the shortwave over Kentucky...the storm is now showing up on EPS mean 500mb anomaly maps, so there's definitely support for what we are seeing on the OP runs - even if the snow map members don't look that great.

Ridging on the west coast connecting to the N AK/Russian ridge, confluence swinging down south of the Hudson and a shortwave on the means, can't get better than that this far out.

I mentioned on Tuesday on AmWx that I liked Feb 6-7 and to wait until Jan 27 when we get into Day 10 range and here we are - this pattern screamed east coast snowstorm when many on AmWx were trying to sell torching. Lets real it in boys.

IMG_6191.png
 
Jon said:
This is a great pattern for a Mid-Atlantic and/or NC snowstorm. We will have to hope the shortwave digs across the gulf states to get the SE in play. For now the EPS supports the mid Atlantic, with the shortwave over Kentucky...the storm is now showing up on EPS mean 500mb anomaly maps, so there's definitely support for what we are seeing on the OP runs - even if the snow map members don't look that great.

Ridging on the west coast connecting to the N AK/Russian ridge, confluence swinging down south of the Hudson and a shortwave on the means, can't get better than that this far out.

I mentioned on Tuesday on AmWx that I liked Feb 6-7 and to wait until Jan 27 when we get into Day 10 range and here we are - this pattern screamed east coast snowstorm when many on AmWx were trying to sell torching. Lets real it in boys.

IMG_6191.png
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Welcome and thanks, Jon! Like old times seeing you here!
 
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