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Pattern February Discussion

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12z GFS tries to reinforce the PV dynamic in Canada, doesn't do it strongly enough for the southeast, does do it strongly enough for the MA/NE.

That's your difference from the 0z and 6z.
 
It doesn't really matter what storms show after this storm, if there isn't at least a PV dynamic up above, it won't be a winter storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm pretty sure aside from subsequent melting and its effect on the ambient temperature, sun angle doesn't matter a whole lot to begin with if you're encased in a thick cloud deck during the middle of a storm...
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Agreed. Also, one way to solve the faster melting is to get sleet instead. The 2/17-8/79 great ATL sleet took seemingly forever to melt! Ahhhh, the glories of a good sleet.
 
Storm5 said:
12z was an improvement with the track it's much further south vs 00z and south of 06z fwiw

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Yeah, we have seen this before. Seems to be the norm for the models now to show a threat north, then move it way south, and then back NW as we get closer.
 
The look with the dynamics from 288-312 is pretty good if something can slip underneath it.

problem is I'm not sure that something can.
 
Just to throw my two cents in about winter weather in south, if you're south of Tennessee/North Carolina, there is a window but it's VERY short. The window is January-mid February, about 6 weeks.

Now it doesn't mean winter weather won't happen before and after then, but it's rarer than January-mid February, and the best events tend to happen in a short stretch in February.

Back on this time period we want to try to reel in:

If there were cold air in place, the track that the CMC shows would be good for Tennessee/North Carolina.

There isn't cold air in place to start though.
 
12z gefs favors a cutter
there are plenty of members that bring wintry to the southeast but it's all in different ways. some have the low far enough south but most are backside situations as the low pulls away
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GaWx said:
Agreed. Also, one way to solve the faster melting is to get sleet instead. The 2/17-8/79 great ATL sleet took seemingly forever to melt! Ahhhh, the glories of a good sleet.
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An inch of sleet probably has the staying power of about 3-4 inches of straight up snow.
 
Storm5 said:
12z gefs favors a cutter
there are plenty of members that bring wintry to the southeast but it's all in different ways. some have the low far enough south but most are backside situations as the low pulls away
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Fear the JB...LOL!


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Storm5 said:
ground temps are WAY overplayed . we hear it every year yet we see winter weather all the time with prior weeks leading up to it in the 60s . Yawn

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No joke one of the dumbest phrases that mets barf out of there mouth all the time.
 
Majority of GEFS members (from member mslp, crap maps) are over land. For my SC friends, sorry.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Just to throw my two cents in about winter weather in south, if you're south of Tennessee/North Carolina, there is a window but it's VERY short. The window is January-mid February, about 6 weeks.

Now it doesn't mean winter weather won't happen before and after then, but it's rarer than January-mid February, and the best events tend to happen in a short stretch in February.

Back on this time period we want to try to reel in:

If there were cold air in place, the track that the CMC shows would be good for Tennessee/North Carolina.

There isn't cold air in place to start though.
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I've lived here in far north Ala all my life. We've had some good winter storms in late Feb and even into March. Had a great 2 inch sleet storm in March not too long ago.
 
Meh, the 12z run did okay with the time period I'm keeping an eye on. It didn't have the storm as I was expecting.

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packfan98 said:
Wow! I didn't see that coming. Just when folks say that it's too cold and too far south, it doubles down and goes colder and even further south!
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We had a few runs like this on the models at about this timeframe on our last storm! Maybe the next few days we can get this thing dialed in! So CMC and Euro are southern solutions and GFS is farthest north from today's runs?
 
Gonna be fun looking at the euro ensembles, probably some gems in there!?
 
Either the Euro is way out to lunch or since its in or near its wheelhouse we'll see something similar to it start to appear on other models. I might lean to "way out to lunch". I trust it more than the GFS, but why would both models be so far apart?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Either the Euro is way out to lunch or since its in or near its wheelhouse we'll see something similar to it start to appear on other models. I might lean to "way out to lunch". I trust it more than the GFS, but why would both models be so far apart?
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it's the whole fun part of model watching, lol
 
Fwiw, the 12Z GEPS suggests a halfway decent shot at a Miller A crossing N FL 2/8.
 
12z eps implies not one but two storms between Feb 5th -10th . Extremely active

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6fd7add3c0d72ceeb56409e90a3eb6c2.jpg


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Storm5 said:
12z eps implies not one but two storms between Feb 5th -10th . Extremely active

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The weekly shows too storms as well during those periods. One cutting and another one coming up on the coast of the SE. The second one may give TN and NC some snow. The track of low wouldn't produce snow for AL, GA and SC. Also, the second one may just very well get suppressed, it just depends how fast that high comes down.

Edit: Oh, it depends on the high to the NE as well. If it's further south, it may very well get suppressed.

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SD, I see that map u posted of the Euro ens. Does any place in the south have any realistic chance at a winter storm with this setup moving forward? I'm in Arkansas BTW. NE Arkansas
 
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