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Pattern February Discussion
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The GFS will take a similar beating to what we took vs UNC
Displacements favor cold outbreaks into north america more so than a full PV split. In the most simple way if you kick the strat PV off the pole the tropospheric PV may follow which leads to a -AOI'm confused on the idea about this displacement that's supposively happening right now. All the "good mets" are really talking about it. What's so good about a ssw displacement?
I am mysteriously intrigued by superbowl weekend
ATLwxfan
Member
Fair enough. However, the early January system was fairly consistent on the models (at least GFS) well beyond 5 days. I can't recall the last wintery threat that we didn't see some evidence of well in advance.
I'm sure there are exceptions that someone will point out.
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olhausen
Member
Just last year the big 12 inch snow My area got only started showing up about 5-6 days out. I will say it was the most consistent I have ever seen the models be for my neck of the woods. The euro pretty much showed 8-12 inches run after run and the Nashville area pretty much got between 8-12 inches. I do know for the Memphis area it busted pretty bad as they were expecting 6 plus inches and ended up with a dusting. God knows I've been through many of those so it was nice to have a storm showing up on the models actually pan out.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The amount of fantasy storms that the models have shown has really decreased since when I started tracking winter weather about 8 years ago. Even in good winters like 13/14 and 14/15 (even if YOU didn't see winter weather, those were good winters) it seemed like if a storm was going to happen, the idea was going to eventually appear and stick and with a few tweaks, it'd be our winter storm. Sometimes it'd appear in the really long range, then disappear before reappearing, but most of the time, if it stuck around for a couple runs, it'd stick.
Like one of the infamous ones that I remember from a long time ago was one that was looking like a replica of one of the major storms of the past, but after a couple days it disappeared not to be found again. And just in general in those days I remember seeing a loooootttt of late in run winter storms that never occurred. That doesn't mean we don't see them at all now, but we see a lot less of them now. Like my brain may be imagining things but it was often like every other GFS run, there was a fantasy storm. I think that was fixed about three years after I started tracking.
Like one of the infamous ones that I remember from a long time ago was one that was looking like a replica of one of the major storms of the past, but after a couple days it disappeared not to be found again. And just in general in those days I remember seeing a loooootttt of late in run winter storms that never occurred. That doesn't mean we don't see them at all now, but we see a lot less of them now. Like my brain may be imagining things but it was often like every other GFS run, there was a fantasy storm. I think that was fixed about three years after I started tracking.
ATLwxfan
Member
The Para is an upgrade to the current GFS. They are working with a new model suite outside the GFS to replace it.
ATLwxfan
Member
We should have a board-wide party to celebrate that day.
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Storm5
Member
it's US made no party needed . it will still fall short of the euro
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Funny fact. Those super computers they use / used for the Euro model were made in the USA. Not to get too detailed here, but stupid "deals" force us to have crap computing power.
Cray Computers
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The GFS still isn't great, but it's not as bad as it used to be. It was really bad in those old days. Honestly, there's no need for a model to go out to 384 hours. It should extend to just 240 hours and there should be a long range model just for evaluation of the pattern.
I think it will still be called GFS, the model will have upgraded computing power. I haven't read a whole lot about it. I'm hoping NOAA will have a beta of it, that would be cool.
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Here's an article on it. Yeah, GFS name will stay but it's being replaced. The PARA GFS should be an upgrade to the current system in place:
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model
I guess everyone gave up and no one saw day 10 on the Euro. So sad
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