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Pattern February Discussion

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I was stating that in general the best thing to look for in the long range on the GFS is storm signals and heights. I wasn't looking at heights in the time period I'm keeping an eye on just yet (not in depth any way). Just that storm signal alone. The weeklies are more accurate than the GFS. On the 18z GFS run the storm signal is there, supporting what the weekly showed.

I'm not sure what Weather Bell shows as the weeklies cause I don't use Weather Bell. Accu pro actually shows the 1000-500 maps on the weeklies. Does any here use Accu Pro as well?

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wait , so now the weeklies are good ??? lol that's good to know , I was wondering why they changed EVERY SINGLE RUN .

The weeklies are garbage . Nothing consistent about them at all.

Anyway we can continue this discussion in the banter thread . We are junking up the February thread with posts about the lr gfs and weeklies

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and just for fun
image_thumb_png_53555bf1b663a866db10162f4b73f4c8.png
 
Storm5 said:
wait , so now the weeklies are good ??? lol that's good to know , I was wondering why they changed EVERY SINGLE RUN .

The weeklies are garbage . Nothing consistent about them at all.

Anyway we can continue this discussion in the banter thread . We are junking up the February thread with posts about the lr gfs and weeklies

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Okay, that's fine, no big deal. You're not thinking about banning me are you? Lol. I'm just stating my opinions like everyone else. That's why we're here. Alright, going back on topic.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Okay, that's fine, no big deal. You're not thinking about banning me are you? Lol. I'm just stating my opinions like everyone else. That's why we're here. Alright, going back on topic.

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ban you ?? lol heck no. I'll only ban you of you go buy a sled like ATL did haha

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Storm5 said:
ban you ?? lol heck no. I'll only ban you of you go buy a sled like ATL did haha

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Lol! I won't post a photo like he did with NO snow on the ground. I'll post one while the snow is falling. Haha.

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Looking at the 12z EPS, it has that storm signal just like the latest weekly and the 18z GFS. EPS is faster but of course we'll have low track issues, temp, and timing. At this point I'll just be looking for consistency now with the storm signal. Once we start to get into that mid range I'll start looking in depth more of the storm.

At this point, I like on where the low is coming about on the 12z EPS and 18z GFS.

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I know details don't matter out in fantasy land, but I can't imagine that it would be that warm with that low in that position...that said we're going to see a wholly different solution on the next run so it doesn't matter.
 
Ban me please. Too much optimism in this thread for the models show IMO.

All the optimism is giving me heartburn.

The clock is ticking before I turn into my seasonal severe weather personality.
 
Arcc said:
Ban me please. Too much optimism in this thread for the models show IMO.

All the optimism is giving me heartburn.

The clock is ticking before I turn into my seasonal severe weather personality.
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Lol, that's all we can do right now is model observe and tell opinions. All this model talk doesn't bother me at all.

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Arcc said:
Ban me please. Too much optimism in this thread for the models show IMO.

All the optimism is giving me heartburn.

The clock is ticking before I turn into my seasonal severe weather personality.
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Oh hell you might need timeout for sure

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Arcc said:
Ban me please. Too much optimism in this thread for the models show IMO.

All the optimism is giving me heartburn.

The clock is ticking before I turn into my seasonal severe weather personality.
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. I'm down with severe, only thing working for us as of now
 
soooooo...the 0z GFS now has two separate storms not too far from each other. That's quite the sudden change.

First one is too far north, second one may do it in the upper south but it depends on how long the CAD can hold on.
 
Second one has some good snow in North Carolina and is an ice storm in South Carolina, the ice gets pretty uncomfortably close to me but thankfully the low track is far enough north I don't see anything (which I'm fine with due to it being ice).
 
Wow that's a nice storm. Quick hitting northern stream system deposits some nice low dewpoints then the bigger system moves in

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GFS looks great! Look at that wedge, yo!
 
Much better look with that system on this run. I agree with the model showing the winter wx confined to northern TN, NC and KY. CAD over the typical area's but I think the WAA will over take over the CAD for some. Then again, this entire system could just get suppressed.

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I'm not terribly enthused about the idea of a storm after this one (or two?). Either there's going to be a PV that parks up ahead in Canada and the far NE US that just suppresses everything and then a torch later or we're just going to torch after it. Maybe said PV ends up a little weaker and something can be snuck underneath it but...yeah.
 
The time frame I'm watching is coming up. Come on GFS.

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well a storm is trying to set up that has a good climatological look but it's not cold enough. (or is it?)
 
I like the look on the 500 MB maps for this storm if it can move. Just question the temps...although it's a bit early to be doing it.
 
The look I want to see is there. Of course models will have a hard time pointing out certain things with it being far out.

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Everyone on the other board (mostly people in the Carolinas) seem a lot happier with this run than people on this board do.
 
Wow, that was such a good run for the time period I'm watching. Just checked the 500mb, nice ridgeing out west and blocking going on to the NE (models have shown this look before) trough digging down nicely. The 10th-13th is our window for the bigger winter system.

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So the GFS has two southern slider solutions, I'll take my chances with at least one of them working. If it's not the first one, it'll be the second one.

It's just as possible that it doesn't happen but if the idea of a quick storm happening before the real thing ends up verifying (as shown here) I actually think there's a good chance an upper south winter storm ends up actually happening around the super bowl.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
So the GFS has two southern slider solutions, I'll take my chances with at least one of them working. If it's not the first one, it'll be the second one.

It's just as possible that it doesn't happen but if the idea of a quick storm happening before the real thing ends up verifying (as shown here) I actually think there's a good chance an upper south winter storm ends up actually happening around the super bowl.
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Well, at least we won't have to worry about that in GA, because I would be crushed if my power went out for the big game.
 
If that blocking holds true, we can easily see a decent strong low (maybe a 995mb low, 29.38). I want to see good amplification with a low and that blocking to the NE may just do the trick for a decent strong low.

2m anomalies are looking good during this time period and also the 850 anomalies are looking good too.

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Storm5, what are the snowfall member snowfall maps looking like during the 10th-13th time period? Accu pro don't have the snowfall member maps. I bet there will be some good members in there.

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