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Pattern February Discussion

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Winnie run!

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It's not that far away, it actually starts around the 4th which is before the 200 hr mark
 
this could very well be a drunk run, but yeah, the Euro package at 12z hinted at something like this. At the very least it seems possible there might end up being a good upper south winter storm and then the real deal a bit later for the entire board (*maybe*).
 
ICE:
icemap.png


SNOW (10:1):
10_1map.png


SNOW (KUCHERA)

kucheramap.png
 
Yeah 1.44 inches of Freezing Rain/Sleet in NE Atlanta only one run but something to eye-ball.... As long as it doesn't mess up me watching my Falcons in the Super Bowl we will be good but win or less just because Falcons are in the big game this will happen watch
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
this could very well be a drunk run, but yeah, the Euro package at 12z hinted at something like this. At the very least it seems possible there might end up being a good upper south winter storm and then the real deal a bit later for the entire board (*maybe*).
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Yes, I agree, the bigger deal comes after this one. From the 18z GFS, the frozen precip is too far south IMO...the reason why I state this is because we will be in a warmer period before this storm. I think there will still be WAA going on.

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malak05 said:
Yeah 1.44 inches of Freezing Rain/Sleet in NE Atlanta only one run but something to eye-ball.... As long as it doesn't mess up me watching my Falcons in the Super Bowl we will be good but win or less just because Falcons are in the big game this will happen watch
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To be fair, it looks like you might get some decent snow and sleet on top of it.
 
Well nothing to be too excited over but we can now have something to watch for over weekend to see if it lingers
 
Gotta love a thread the needle system typical of the SE. The trough over the NE is lifting out but there is a nice arctic air mass left in place then you get the wedging as well. My fears with this are we we get a phase with the northern stream and a monster cutter or the pacific is too flat and the system ends up to our north.

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The low poping up on at 336-348 on 18z GFS is the one we'll have to watch out for.

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SD said:
Gotta love a thread the needle system typical of the SE. The trough over the NE is lifting out but there is a nice arctic air mass left in place then you get the wedging as well. My fears with this are we we get a phase with the northern stream and a monster cutter or the pacific is too flat and the system ends up to our north.

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ride or die

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SD said:
Gotta love a thread the needle system typical of the SE. The trough over the NE is lifting out but there is a nice arctic air mass left in place then you get the wedging as well. My fears with this are we we get a phase with the northern stream and a monster cutter or the pacific is too flat and the system ends up to our north.

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Fear the cutter! I still don't see how this doesn't cut but we'll see...


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pcbjr said:
I shouldn't said or asked. Sorry. I enjoy Weber and follow him elsewhere. This one was beyond me. Read it over several times, then posted. My bad for asking what it all meant. Meant nothing negative - if it came off that way - my fault. Phil
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I didn't take what you said as a bad thing. He often isn't easy to read even though he is a great asset.
 
The main reason for this system not cutting this time in this specific time frame is the blocking is really strong. The block starts to retreat as the system moves east but its just so strong this system won't cut IF this were to be the solution.

Now if the blocking isn't as strong as depicted here, which is likely, the mostly flat flow suggests a cutter to me.

Edit: This was really close to being a ridiculous run. If the block holds a little longer, hello 2014 southern ice storm...part 2 in the same areas. Now I doubt this ends up happening at all as the blocking is really needed (even if its retreating), but if this sticks around for a few runs it's possible.
 
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