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Pattern February Discussion

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This is the experimental outlook. The systems will be coming in over the Pacific NW and some will drop down into the Plains and some will just keep pushing east, giving middle of the Nation, mid west and upper mid-west equal chances. I think the below normal is little too far east over there in TX. I like this look.
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lol gefs member 10. And if its ice, well it's absolutely crushing.

At the very least, I think the MA/NE are about to be very happy after this one. If it works out for them they're going to be crushed.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
lol gefs member 10. And if its ice, well it's absolutely crushing.

At the very least, I think the MA/NE are about to be very happy after this one. If it works out for them they're going to be crushed.
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Likely a sleet storm from the 500mb, and ice to the south. Might not be too off from the Feb 2014 storm in the Carolinas/GA.

And, it makes sense for this time-frame. But, just one member.
 
that's good look days 8-10. let's see what the eps says. the gefs has become far more interesting through day 10. let's see if the eps follows

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The Euro seems like it's on it's own. Aren't we in it's wheelhouse? If so I bet it'll be wrong but we'll end up finding a solution that is in between cutter and just northern stream energy.
 
Storm5 said:
that's good look days 8-10. let's see what the eps says. the gefs has become far more interesting through day 10. let's see if the eps follows

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I bet if EPS follow suit there'll be some nice hits...


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Storm5 said:
agree. give me the euro look days 7-10 and I'll take my chances and call it a winter . Rest boys and girls

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Man it looks good but I bet the EPS say you crazy op...LOL!


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I love the look that the Euro has at 240, if that wouldn't work then nothing would in the south. The Euro stops then but that look would suggest a southern slider with the low I see in Texas...and there is a low off of the SE coast too.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I love the look that the Euro has at 240, if that wouldn't work then nothing would in the south. The Euro stops then but that look would suggest a southern slider with the low I see in Texas...and there is a low off of the SE coast too.
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Was looking at that - the low in Texas is interesting - still wondering about temps, but ahhh details ....
 
I feel as maybe models could show big Weenie run soon again, so close to something big.
 
I bet there will be an interesting EPS run today. Nice looks on the 12z Euro deterministic run.

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I keep thinking what the GFS and Euro did with the last storm this far out and if this is a repeat. One showing it further north and the other further south, only for them both to end up shifting as we got closer.
 
12z eps supports the op with a much further south look vs the gfs and gefs . Gfs vs euro again

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the eps is extremely active and supports the gefs idea of two systems between the 4th-10th. Lots to work on but at least it's not boring . entertaining few weeks ahead

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Storm5 said:
the eps is extremely active and supports the gefs idea of two systems between the 4th-10th. Lots to work on but at least it's not boring . entertaining few weeks ahead

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Appears to be more cutters and inland runners this go round for the second system.


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whatalife said:
Appears to be more cutters and inland runners this go round for the second system.


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more inland runners vs anything else . I'm fine with that being so far out the idea of two systems that have potential to bring SOME something wintry by the 10th is there
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Regardless of low placement, we need a strong high not only working as a physical prsssure force but also a temperature force. Right now the high looks to suppress the systems but not being any cold air skjth


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Today's EPS MJO forecast is similarly to recent runs unfavorable for cold late week 1 but favorable late week 2+. The GEFS has the NAO remaining + for 2 weeks+ and it has the AO staying + up until about day 10, at which time disagreement between members takes over. Even if the NAO and AO both remain mainly + for the next couple of weeks, keep in mind these major SE winter storms which were accompanied by +NAO/+AO:

2/1973, 1/1988, 3/1993, 3/2009, 2/2014
 
GaWx said:
Today's EPS MJO forecast is similarly to recent runs unfavorable for cold late week 1 but favorable late week 2+. The GEFS has the NAO remaining + for 2 weeks+ and it has the AO staying + up until about day 10, at which time disagreement between members takes over. Even if the NAO and AO both remain mainly + for the next couple of weeks, keep in mind these major SE winter storms which were accompanied by +NAO/+AO:

2/1973, 1/1988, 3/1993, 3/2009, 2/2014
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MJO is staying close to the circle and may go to 8 = hope springs eternal LOL

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pcbjr said:
Pray tell, what is "cold air" LOL
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Cold air is air with low heat content. Air with less kinetic motion. In this context, I was talking about 850mb temps below 0C.


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GaWx said:
Today's EPS MJO forecast is similarly to recent runs unfavorable for cold late week 1 but favorable late week 2+. The GEFS has the NAO remaining + for 2 weeks+ and it has the AO staying + up until about day 10, at which time disagreement between members takes over. Even if the NAO and AO both remain mainly + for the next couple of weeks, keep in mind these major SE winter storms which were accompanied by +NAO/+AO:

2/1973, 1/1988, 3/1993, 3/2009, 2/2014
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bouncycorn said:
Cold air is air with low heat content. Air with less kinetic motion. In this context, I was talking about 850mb temps below 0C.


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I was being rhetorical!
 
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