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Pattern February Discussion

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packfan98 said:
That's funny, I was thinking it could speed up and give us some nice overrunning instead of a big system.
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Oh I agree. I'm just watching for another source of cold air as the first really seems to be a lost hope lately.
 
Looks like half of SC gets a pretty heavy hit on the backside for the second system.
 
Wow y'all...looks like my prediction is coming together. Hey, hey GFS look whatcha got cooking.

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The reason all of these systems are warm is 1) the western ridge isn't *that* strong and 2) both feature weak highs/strong lows.
 
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
Good chunk of this is likely snow too. Not too shabby, but way out there:
gfs_asnow24_seus_37.png
 
8-10 day storm is about the best look we've had all year, for a big winter storm, in the Carolinas atleast! Aside from a few GFS runs with 33" near RAH! But I'm sure the clown maps will be good for this one as well!
 
Shawn posted this list of the biggest Columbia storms previously (I added the low track) and has emphasized the 2nd week in Feb. to be more climo favored for a big snowstorm than other weeks. Note how clumped are the 5 storm dates that are bolded! Something somewhat similar can be found for a number of other SE US locations. Note the lack of any for the 1st week of Feb. for whatever reason;

HERE ARE THE TOP 10 SNOW EVENTS FOR COLUMBIA with low track added:

16.0 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9-10 1973: C FL
11.8 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-14 1899: C FL
11.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 25-26 1914: C FL
11.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 24-25 1894: C FL
8.8 INCHES...DECEMBER 10-11 1958: C FL
8.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 12-13 2010: C FL
8.5 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-12 1895: N FL
8.1 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10-11 1912: N FL
6.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 23 1901: N FL
6.2 INCHES...JANUARY 29-30 1936: N FL
 
GaWx said:
Shawn posted this list of the biggest Columbia storms previously (I added the low track) and has emphasized the 2nd week in Feb. to be more climo favored for a big snowstorm than other weeks. Note how clumped are the 5 storm dates that are bolded! Something somewhat similar can be found for a number of other SE US locations. Note the lack of any for the 1st week of Feb. for whatever reason;

HERE ARE THE TOP 10 SNOW EVENTS FOR COLUMBIA with low track added:

16.0 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9-10 1973: C FL
11.8 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-14 1899: C FL
11.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 25-26 1914: C FL
11.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 24-25 1894: C FL
8.8 INCHES...DECEMBER 10-11 1958: C FL
8.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 12-13 2010: C FL
8.5 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-12 1895: N FL
8.1 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10-11 1912: N FL
6.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 23 1901: N FL
6.2 INCHES...JANUARY 29-30 1936: N FL
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Yeah. I haven't pulled all snow threats, these are just the highest amounts. I should try to pull that data and see just how many 1 inch + storms there were in Feb. I'll get back with that soon.
 
Storm5 said:
you had been saying after this time period

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No, I said 10th-13th (maybe sooner or later). I said that a few days ago. Timing will change. The reason why I've been saying 10th-13th is because I don't think a system will come right after the 5th-6th system.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
No, I said 10th-13th (maybe sooner or later). I said that a few days ago. Timing will change. The reason why I've been saying 10th-13th is because I don't think a system will come right after the 5th-6th system.

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lol this one starts the 7th
26892faa7c4ac89bed13c11ee42862d9.jpg


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That storm track is just too good to not have cold air for our area. I'm just glad we have something to track and that the ensembles are in decent agreement.
 
bouncycorn said:
compday.zCyHfL5iXI.gif


This is a mean of the top 25 Atlanta snow events. MSLP .
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Wow, great map, bouncy! I'm not at all surprised to see the mean surface low position to cross over north-central FL for the biggest ATL snow events. Note for Tony that this also includes big sleetstorms and that this is relevant to much of the nonmountainous well inland SE US.
 
Storm5 said:
hate seeing such a good low track 8 days out .....

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Yep, me too. Too much time for it to turn in an apps runner and then end up killing New England.
 
Storm5 said:
lol this one starts the 7th
26892faa7c4ac89bed13c11ee42862d9.jpg


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Which is starting right after the 5th-6th system exits. I think the second system will start coming about 7th-9th...getting in here by the 10th or so. I just don't think that second system will get in here by the 7th or 8th. I'm trying to think of realistic timing windows.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Which is starting right after the 5th-6th system exits. I think the second system will start coming about 7th-9th...getting in here by the 10th or so. I just don't think that second system will get in here by the 7th or 8th. I'm trying to think of realistic timing windows.

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you just said you didn't think it comes right after the 6th . now your saying it starts around the 7th . lol


NorthGAWinterWx said:
No, I said 10th-13th (maybe sooner or later). I said that a few days ago. Timing will change. The reason why I've been saying 10th-13th is because I don't think a system will come right after the 5th-6th system.

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Click to expand...


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Storm5 said:
hate seeing such a good low track 8 days out .....

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Would you rather see a poor track like the first system has had for days? It's had a consistent poor track.
 
Shawn,
What happened to your post of 1"+ SN at CAE? I was about to reply to it to say that it only reinforced how active the 2nd week of Feb. has been with another 3 from then making 8 from the 2nd week! I did see one added for 2/6, making it the only one for the 1st week for 1"+ vs 8 for the 2nd week!
 
Okay Larry. Here is some more dates for CAE of 1 inch or more. I am sure there were many many more sleet/zr events, and a good chunk of data is missing for the older stuff on my source:

2/23/1901 6.3
2/10/1912 1.6
2/11/1912 6.5
2/25/1914 1
2/26/1914 9.9
2/21/1936 6.2
2/13/1958 1.7
2/9/1967 1
2/9/1973 1.4
2/10/1973 12.3
2/18/1979 3.7
2/6/1980 5.5
2/23/1989 4.3
2/12/2010 3.4
2/12/2014 1.5
1889-02-22 2.1
1894-02-24 1
1894-02-25 1.1
1894-12-28 10.2
1895-02-11 5
1895-02-12 3.1
1899-02-12 4.9
1899-02-13 3.4
1899-02-14 6.8
 
GaWx said:
Shawn,
What happened to your post of 1"+ SN at CAE? I was about to reply to it to say that it only reinforced how active the 2nd week of Feb. has been with another 3 from then making 8 from the 2nd week! I did see one added for 2/6, making it the only one for the 1st week for 1"+ vs 8 for the 2nd week!
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I had other months than Feb in there ;P
 
bouncycorn said:
Would you rather see a poor track like the first system has had for days? It's had a consistent poor track.
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I'd rather see that track 5 days in . we all know this track won't hold for the next week . plus we don't even know the gfs is right with the day 5/6 system. the euro and eps is way south .

the good news. it's a workable setup .

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We aren't even in 5 days for the first system and people have already discounted it.
 
bouncycorn said:
We aren't even in 5 days for the first system and people have already discounted it.
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that's the whole point. why the hell would anyone get too excited about the day 8-10 system when the first one is bouncing all over the damn place

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