We may see the system early as the 7th but I don't think it will be over the Plains on the 7th. We may see the system in the Pacific NW on the 7th dropping down into the Plains by the 8th-9th getting in here by the 10th.
gefs is extremely active days 7-11 . can find any solution your heart desires
Lol, what about 70 degree torch and a cutter?
I think everyone in NC will take that mean and run18z gefs
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Yeah bit it's skewed by those few big members.
When GFS/GFES shows a storm, drops it, and finds it again - good signal usually
; NAO stays + but there is always a fly in the ointment
I don't think it's safe to discount the first system this far out.
I really don't know with the first system yet, and am interested at best in the second one. The first one could adjust into a CAD event for some CAD areas, but the second one looks like it would likely go south, but cold air would be a problem here. We want it to lock in a location, not jump all around, since systems that are usually all around have unexpected tracks. However, how accurate have the models been anyway with winter weather lately? Let's just see where we go with this next, but at least we have something to track!
That first system is now before hr 192, so the GFS has much a higher resolution. The latest CMC and GFS have decent model agreement, except for the CMC keeps the HP to the NE. But with track of low, there won't be much in the way of winter wx. The 12z Euro has a different solution with the moisture further south and a HP staying in the NE. With that look, there would be more winter weather with that solution.
Panteras version of " Cat scratch Fever" it's great! Almost better than uncle Ted!
Webb - Fabulous!On this date back in 1936, the 2nd snowstorm within a few days struck eastern and central NC, producing as much as 1 foot of snow in far southeastern NC, including Onslow and Carteret counties. This snowstorm is definitely one of the greatest I-20 centric hits in the last century or so, delivering over 6 inches of snow in a large swath from north-central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, central SC, and southeastern NC. A very weak area of low pressure formed in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late on January 29th, with light-moderate overrunning precipitation spreading across the southern plains and the deep south and gradually spreading eastward. The intensity/coverage of the overrunning precipitation increased over MS, AL, and GA as the area of low pressure gradually intensified over en route to crossing the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula on the 30th. This storm system remained well offshore of the Carolinas and relatively weak, with precipitation ending in the coastal carolinas and Virginia early on the 31st. Although a very robust antecedent arctic airmass was well entrenched east of the Rockies, the absence of a significant surface high anchored over the Great Lakes, Midwest, and/or northeastern US during this storm is a notable and rather unusual feature in this event that flies in the face of many canonical overrunning setups in the SE US.
this would be a great idea. let one member a week pick the song of the night for every 00z run and play it through the site
Yeah, that came to my mind. There's just something about listening to some good tunes while looking at model runs as they come in. Make a playlist and let it play automatically while the model data rolls in.
