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Pattern February Discussion

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gfs is about to torch days 10-15. which I'm fine with.

this day 8-10 system is starting to have legs

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Shawn said:
That was the other site forum before it went down. We are trying to keep an open mind here. Personally when I see his stuff (maps, tweets, fb posts), I gloss over it.
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Unlike JB, he focuses on the southeast, as you know, and I've seen him hit home runs MANY TIMES...I've even had meteorologists laugh at what he was saying, only to be proven wrong and him get it right...numerous times.
 
post day 10 is a furnace this run
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I'd like to point out that the 00z Canadian had the low around where the Euro & 18z GFS did. Canadian was pretty warm for us deep south folk.

I'd also like to note that the Canadian is usually ice/sleet storm happy. Take that fwiw.
 
I would like to believe that there'd be more blocking causing it to be cooler at verification time (even if it isn't THAT cold) but this pattern is progressive and fast. Without a -NAO everything is going to be thread the needle...but we knew this.

Like either the northern blocking is going to have to be just slightly weaker than depicted at 18z and hold on tight in time for a winter storm to happen or something is going to need to sneak in right after the cutter. Nothing is going to hold for long.
 
The storm is there on the GEFS mean, the blocking is there but slightly weaker, I can't get a read verbatim with the maps I have (I don't pay) but I think it'd be a good upper south winter storm. In the deep south it's not great.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The storm is there on the GEFS mean, the blocking is there but slightly weaker, I can't get a read verbatim with the maps I have (I don't pay) but I think it'd be a good upper south winter storm. In the deep south it's not great.
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Can you clarify what you consider to be upper South vs deep South ? Would you consider the North GA mountains to be deep South ?
 
If there's precip going on at 240 it might be snow in far North Alabama and North Georgia (I mean north of Atlanta). But again I can't see details since I don't pay. And at 246 it'd definitely be some sort of wintry precip.
 
Okay guys. Listen. The Euro, Canadian, 18z GFS had a system that was a Wintry threat in the same area today.

GFS had a Winter storm a couple days ago also. There is something to watch in the time-frame. Lets see what ensembles do for now and make an educated guess on it. Models are just guidance. Guidance shows a push of cold air and a wave possibly sparking something. Nothing will be detailed this far out. Ensembles will help try and piece together a system, and then we can worry about details!
 
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