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Pattern February Discussion

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The 0z and 6z gfs completely eliminated the trough over the NE this allows the system to cut inland versus being suppressed south like the 18z gfs from yesterday and the euro. Like I said last night this is a thread the needle event

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SD said:
The 0z and 6z gfs completely eliminated the trough over the NE this allows the system to cut inland versus being suppressed south like the 18z gfs from yesterday and the euro. Like I said last night this is a thread the needle event

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We need that trough to anchor the high to keep it suppressed.


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Jon said:
This is a great pattern for a Mid-Atlantic and/or NC snowstorm. We will have to hope the shortwave digs across the gulf states to get the SE in play. For now the EPS supports the mid Atlantic, with the shortwave over Kentucky...the storm is now showing up on EPS mean 500mb anomaly maps, so there's definitely support for what we are seeing on the OP runs - even if the snow map members don't look that great.

Ridging on the west coast connecting to the N AK/Russian ridge, confluence swinging down south of the Hudson and a shortwave on the means, can't get better than that this far out.

I mentioned on Tuesday on AmWx that I liked Feb 6-7 and to wait until Jan 27 when we get into Day 10 range and here we are - this pattern screamed east coast snowstorm when many on AmWx were trying to sell torching. Lets real it in boys.

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as you said confluence from the northern stream is key. problem I have right now Is there isn't alot of ensemble support . gefs supports a cutting system in various ways from a straight lakes cutter to an inland runner over southern Georgia. the eps has the same general idea with a system that cuts .

we really need the northern stream to slow down by like 12-18 hours . I'm not sold on any solution at this point. if it's gonna cut or run inland I want it to do so early on . I would like nothing more than to watch a low go right over the mid Atlantic.

Lots of potential , but as always timing is everything . Ride or die

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After looking at the overnight modeling I don't see a lot of reason for people to punt winter. We might see a chance or 2 in the first half of the month then the 2nd half could be really nice

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Really like the potential between the 5th-11th...Looks like we have a shot at two systems during this timeframe...Should be a fun week ahead of watching the models and ensembles for guidance.


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SD said:
After looking at the overnight modeling I don't see a lot of reason for people to punt winter. We might see a chance or 2 in the first half of the month then the 2nd half could be really nice

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yep and as you mentioned the euro mjo argues a fun finish to winter

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With the first system, I don't think we'll see much in the way of winter weather here in GA. Maybe you guys up there in NC will get some winter weather with that first system. I'm watching the 10th-12th time frame maybe even into the 14th.

Yup, sure enough...it's going to be a fun weekend and all week model observing.

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Warm ground temps are going to impact any freezing drizzle accumulation here in ATL


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A bombing 50/50 and/or blocking are two excellent ways to get confluence in the right area. Unfortunately, we will probably have neither. Therefore, it will come down to timing, which we can get with some luck. The concern, other than timing, is that the PV cold press is usually overmodeled in the LR, particularly when no blocking is present.

RE: sun angle, that can be easily mitigated with thick clouds, heavy snow, and temps in the 20s! :)
 
ground temps are WAY overplayed . we hear it every year yet we see winter weather all the time with prior weeks leading up to it in the 60s . Yawn

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Storm5 said:
JB says the euro is wrong , move along from se to ma .Expect a blizzard now

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That's from the weeklies, weeklies showed a blizzard, upper mid west down to NW upper Plains. Just a trailing cold front with rain showers SE to NE.
I can't say too much about the weeklies cause I'm not a allowed to.

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I don't care what anyone says. Sun angle is a big factor. Yes it can be overcome by heavy rates and/or super cold temps. But if it's snowing light to moderately during the daytime with temps hovering around 32 you can forget about much accumulation past Feb 15 or so. I literally have not seen any decent accumulation IMBY after Feb 15 in over 20 years. The latest I've seen decent accumulation in that time period was the Feb 2010 snow. So unless you live in TN, NC, or North of ATL, it's going to take a freak event like March 09 or March 93 to see snow past mid feb.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
That's from the weeklies, weeklies showed a blizzard, upper mid west down to NW upper Plains. Just a trailing cold front with rain showers SE to NE.
I can't say too much about the weeklies cause I'm not a allowed to.

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lol why can't you say anything about the weeklies .

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