whatalife
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Pattern February Discussion
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if only it were January and not february, Maybe we would have some cold air !
Storm5
Member
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Now is a good time to bring out that famous saying...."Don't worry, it will make it's own cold air"
Storm5
Member
I'm going with "maybe we can get the bathtub to slosh just one more time "
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
In all honesty, put me under that deformation band and I will take my chances.
It's possible, it could turn out to be an ULL.
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I wish all of you were half as pretty as your avatars... 
LMAO!!!
LMAO!!!Flo
Member
I will be at Great Wolf Lodge in Charlotte Sun and Mon. Forecast of 40's and rain Sunday. It needs to get colder please.
Remember Friday's 18z run of the GFS? it showed a winter event for the SE and now it shows very little in the way of winter weather across the SE. The next system will be opposite. That GFS will trick ya now. Lol.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
The 6z GFS track would technically be good for North Alabama/North Georgia/upstate SC and north but the overall setup completely sucks and it wouldn't matter if it was early January if this stayed the setup. A HP is there but its retreating and the Pacific is busy flooding warm air into most of the US. Even if a wedge were more locked in, this would be ice.
The Pacific Ocean's strength will have to have been overestimated for starters in this one.
The Pacific Ocean's strength will have to have been overestimated for starters in this one.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
December and January temperature verification against my winter forecast w/ one of my college meteorology buddies we released back on the first of December. Not too shabby thus far, far from perfect certainly, but it's pretty good especially when you look at what other forecasters had out for the same period...
There's definitely a legitimate possibility that February could end up even warmer nationwide than what we forecasted, except for perhaps the southeastern US because i don't think we could have made a warmer forecast down there lol... The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies likely have the best shot to be below normal in February.
http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/blog/category/winter-weather-outlook-20162017
There's definitely a legitimate possibility that February could end up even warmer nationwide than what we forecasted, except for perhaps the southeastern US because i don't think we could have made a warmer forecast down there lol... The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies likely have the best shot to be below normal in February.
http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/blog/category/winter-weather-outlook-20162017
I wish all of you were half as pretty as your avatars...
I know what you mean , Steve. The falcon is one pretty bird!
By the way, welcome back!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
In my experiences with LR systems, if we are going to see a south trend there must be some NE confluence. Otherwise, it will trend NW with each model run. The PNA is going more positive with time. That will help keep the Pacific at bay, but the NAO will have to cooperate if we are to have a board-wide event. I really like the path of the 06z storm. The mountains will cash-in with this one.... unless, of course, it turns out to be a cutter.
Yeah man, welcome back! You're not too far from me. I'm Don from North Georgia Winter Weather Information.I wish all of you were half as pretty as your avatars...
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Nice avatar !
Dang, Webber just nailing the coffin shut. Props on the forecast so far, tho.
Do you think we have any shot at any decent winters in the next 5 years or so? There is this whole solar min thing that's getting some hype, but that may be well overrated.
Do you think we have any shot at any decent winters in the next 5 years or so? There is this whole solar min thing that's getting some hype, but that may be well overrated.
Webber, what are your thoughts on temps for the spring ( march-may) ? Atlanta has had 12 straight months of AN temps. Is there any end in sight or will this warmth last forever ?
RollTide18
Member
Yeah, February will be warm, but will it be so warm that even my pool is too warm to get in?
whatalife
Moderator
12z GFS will show more in the way of severe wx...Book it! 
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^Impressive forecast from Eric Webb for Dec/Jan!
Thanks SER! I know it doesn't look as good as your snake did, but I guess it isn't bad.
Thanks SER! I know it doesn't look as good as your snake did, but I guess it isn't bad.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Dynamic cooling, FTL! It's 10 days away and you can smell desperation already!
As long as that Bermuda high is flexing you might as well right off this next threat for good baring something crazy happens.
If you're counting on the latest Euro runs... you are going to be disappointed. Even the GFS isn't too excited.
The strat warming that is currently underway isn't as robust as hoped, and even though the winds at the 1 hPa level have reversed, it doesn't appear that we will see the same situation at 10 or 30 hPa. Dr. Cohen believes that the strat warming will be a prolonged event, and I hope so, but based on the forecast, it doesn't look like it will be.
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The strat warming that is currently underway isn't as robust as hoped, and even though the winds at the 1 hPa level have reversed, it doesn't appear that we will see the same situation at 10 or 30 hPa. Dr. Cohen believes that the strat warming will be a prolonged event, and I hope so, but based on the forecast, it doesn't look like it will be.
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I wish all of you were half as pretty as your avatars...
They're supposed to bring the snow but they aren't working. I am about to switch to the Grinch.
It's the South. I think people down here need to temper their expectations.
RollTide18
Member
That's true but at least with some winters you get a nice stretch of cold and a couple of major threats mixed in depending on where you live. These last two winters have not been good at all, even the MA and NE has had a crappy winter.
Yeah that's the point we've had several years of bad winter results for the SE which sure happens at times, but this year particularly has been bad as far as even anything to even track and the one major chance was a general bust compared to what we were looking at just 36 hours prior
packfan98
Moderator
The western ridge is taller on the 12z GFS. Let's see if we can get that first system to produce for someone. The cold in the plains is a little stronger, but warmer in the east so far. Come on!
packfan98
Moderator
Looks to be a colder run for the first system...it still has legs yet!
Temps looking much better into TN/NC. Far Northern AL/GA. Upstate SC. 850's could be better for areas outside NC & TN, but we will see. This is wave #1 btw.
Little bit of Winter breaking out in Arkansas by 126
Little bit of Winter breaking out in Arkansas by 126
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks okay for the mountains. Definitely an improvement. The second system will probably be 70s and through the Ohio Valley or south of Cuba and suppressed lol.
This should be an interesting miller b on the GFS
http://1.--.blogspot.com/-27ikjtahI6o/UdzQw6g8c9I/AAAAAAAAADg/t74q9WwiKkg/s1600/vlcsnap-2013-07-09-23h08m16s138.png
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