• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
The 0Z GEFS mildly suggests a Miller A crossing FL 2/8-9, but cold is lacking to the north.
 
Yeah models are having issues. That's why we must focus on large scale trends and not let our guard up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah like maybe a summer pattern when every day is 90 degrees for 3 months straight ?
Click to expand...

They tend to do better in strong La Niña/el Niño. They do better during established patterns. They do better when the continental ocean ssts are closer to average. They tend to do better when mjo is in the circle. During oscillanic continuity.

None of which we have going into the next week.
 
bouncycorn said:
They tend to do better in strong La Niña/el Niño. They do better during established patterns. They do better when the continental ocean ssts are closer to average. They tend to do better when mjo is in the circle. During oscillanic continuity.

None of which we have going into the next week.
Click to expand...
Do you think in general the models have more problems in the winter than during the summer ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Do the models ever NOT have issues ?
Click to expand...

The GFS has had a strong cold bias so far this winter, especially during the 11-15. Time after time a cold 11-15 has verified much warmer. However, that has not been the case for the usually warmer EPS. That's why I love to see cold EPS 11-15's.
 
Last edited:
I'd like to see that high that I circled to the south and west to help force some colder air in. Which it should be more south and west because normally after a system like that, a high pressure would move in after the low pushes off to the NE.
edea00343b6270c67c53a98338d1a530.jpg


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Maybe I'll end up eating my words, but the 0Z Euro as of hour 168 doesn't look encouraging vs the 0Z GFS nor the 12Z Euro.
 
Great look on the 6z GFS for a Classic Miller A on the 8th...... with no cold air. Tons of rain for everyone. What a waste of a setup.
 
dissapointing overnight runs for the day 8-10 system on the ops and ensembles. sure looks like we will have a system but cold air is gonna be a massive massive problem

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
I agree Charlie...Not a good set of runs since the 18z GFS. Very little hope at this pt b/c of what appears to be a lack of cold air.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Liking the Feb 14th timeframe! Everything until then looks to be rain sadly at this point!
 
whatalife said:
I agree Charlie...Not a good set of runs since the 18z GFS. Very little hope at this pt b/c of what appears to be a lack of cold air.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
At least we know 12Z will be different! As far as cold air, it is several degrees too warm, but at least it isn't that far off. If the models give us some colder air, we will be seeing great model runs.
 
Storm5 said:
50s and 60s is far off

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
For 6Z? Maybe for the coast and a bit inland.
gfs_T2m_seus_40.png

At 850, it may be questionable for eastern North Carolina, but not Georgia and Alabama. The temps remain in the upper 30s and low 40s through the run.
gfs_T850_seus_40.png

Only model showing 50s and 60s is the CMC, and we know how it does at 240.
 
WXinCanton said:
Temps aren't even close. I understand it is a ways out there, but damn, it's not even close.
Click to expand...
I guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.
 
pcbjr said:
Webb - Fabulous!
Phil
Click to expand...
Thanks!
ForsythSnow said:
For 6Z? Maybe for the coast and a bit inland.
gfs_T2m_seus_40.png

At 850, it may be questionable for eastern North Carolina, but not Georgia and Alabama. The temps remain in the upper 30s and low 40s through the run.
gfs_T850_seus_40.png

Only model showing 50s and 60s is the CMC, and we know how it does at 240.
Click to expand...


The Euro is considerably warmer than either the GFS or CMC. Definitely would be more concerned about severe wx and thunderstorms than wintry wx if this even came close to panning out...
ecmwf_t2m_se_37-1024x768.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
I guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.
Click to expand...
even the 00z euro was in the 60s. still lots of time no doubt. just a little discouraging

00z euro
6e08acc18e59b72360dc68a9acd0dfe0.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Thanks!



The Euro is considerably warmer than either the GFS or CMC. Definitely would be more concerned about severe wx and thunderstorms than wintry wx if this even came close to panning out...
ecmwf_t2m_se_37-1024x768.png
Click to expand...
Oh, I don't have access to the Euro surface temperatures, so I couldn't see how everyone was getting 50s and 60s. Thanks for clearing that up!
 
ForsythSnow said:
I guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.
Click to expand...
Hopefully we can get a better look today. Still way way out there.
 
Storm5 said:
we need the next two weeks to work out . The second half of February isn't looking good ATM

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Next two weeks aren't even looking that good. I know temps shouldn't be a issue this far out but the GFS doesn't have anything close to frozen except for the upper south on Super Bowl Sunday. Looks more like a cool March than a February.
 
At least the 06z gefs was an improvement over the overnight runs..... still has the system, anything from a cutter, apps runner to just offshore but the mean lp placement is more offshore and the mean snow total much higher than the 0z gefs. However, that is skewed somewhat by about 4 or 5 big dogs and unfortunately mostly TN and the Carolina's. The silver lining is there still is a chance this can work in our favor however slim it may be.
 
Just glossing over various runs and "snowfall/ice maps" from recent runs, looks like the storm track and temps screw a lot of us in the SE. If it's a good track, it's rain. If it's cold air close by, it cuts inland.
 
That track of low on 06z GFS is too good not to have cold air. There as to be cold air!

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
That track of low on 06z GFS is too good not to have cold air. There as to be cold air!

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The track sucks for many of us in GA, SC, likely NC. No cold in sight to help TN/AL/MS on the backend. Even if there was a strong wedge in place, we'd end up with a mess of an ice/sleet event for many.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top