Do the models ever NOT have issues ?Yeah models are having issues. That's why we must focus on large scale trends and not let our guard up.
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Do the models ever NOT have issues ?
Yeah like maybe a summer pattern when every day is 90 degrees for 3 months straight ?There are some patterns that models handle better than others, yes.
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Yeah like maybe a summer pattern when every day is 90 degrees for 3 months straight ?
Do you think in general the models have more problems in the winter than during the summer ?They tend to do better in strong La Niña/el Niño. They do better during established patterns. They do better when the continental ocean ssts are closer to average. They tend to do better when mjo is in the circle. During oscillanic continuity.
None of which we have going into the next week.
Do the models ever NOT have issues ?
no, much warmer than beforeMaybe I'll end up eating my words, but the 0Z Euro as of hour 168 doesn't look encouraging vs the 0Z GFS nor the 12Z Euro.
At least we know 12Z will be different! As far as cold air, it is several degrees too warm, but at least it isn't that far off. If the models give us some colder air, we will be seeing great model runs.I agree Charlie...Not a good set of runs since the 18z GFS. Very little hope at this pt b/c of what appears to be a lack of cold air.
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50s and 60s is far offAt least we know 12Z will be different! As far as cold air, it is several degrees too warm, but at least it isn't that far off. If the models give us some colder air, we will be seeing great model runs.
For 6Z? Maybe for the coast and a bit inland.50s and 60s is far off
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I guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.Temps aren't even close. I understand it is a ways out there, but damn, it's not even close.
Thanks!Webb - Fabulous!
Phil
For 6Z? Maybe for the coast and a bit inland.
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At 850, it may be questionable for eastern North Carolina, but not Georgia and Alabama. The temps remain in the upper 30s and low 40s through the run.
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Only model showing 50s and 60s is the CMC, and we know how it does at 240.
even the 00z euro was in the 60s. still lots of time no doubt. just a little discouragingI guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.
Oh, I don't have access to the Euro surface temperatures, so I couldn't see how everyone was getting 50s and 60s. Thanks for clearing that up!Thanks!
The Euro is considerably warmer than either the GFS or CMC. Definitely would be more concerned about severe wx and thunderstorms than wintry wx if this even came close to panning out...
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Hopefully we can get a better look today. Still way way out there.I guess they aren't close, but it certainly isn't a torch. As I said, 12Z will likely be different, so we will likely have another solution. My definition of close is within 7 or so degrees of freezing at 850, which it was. If surface temps are in the 40s, I take into account that if the 850s were below freezing, the surface would likely be colder since decent rates are present. Sorry if I was confusing everyone.
we need the next two weeks to work out . The second half of February isn't looking good ATM
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Agreedwe need the next two weeks to work out . The second half of February isn't looking good ATM
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DGEX didn't look bad...#GraspingAtStraws...Well those overnight runs were a real letdown
Whew we are gold!DGEX didn't look bad...#GraspingAtStraws...
That track of low on 06z GFS is too good not to have cold air. There as to be cold air!
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PervI have some words I'd like to say but I'll reframe.
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That track of low on 06z GFS is too good not to have cold air. There as to be cold air!
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