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Pattern February Discussion

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Rain Cold said:
Dang, Webber just nailing the coffin shut. Props on the forecast so far, tho.

Do you think we have any shot at any decent winters in the next 5 years or so? There is this whole solar min thing that's getting some hype, but that may be well overrated.
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SoutheastRidge said:
Webber, what are your thoughts on temps for the spring ( march-may) ? Atlanta has had 12 straight months of AN temps. Is there any end in sight or will this warmth last forever ?
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Thanks for the feedback! I think wrt solar minimum, if we are able to observe another easterly QBO/weak-moderate CP NINO combo in concert w/ this solar background, then it's feasible we could see at least 1 or 2 winters with exceptional high latitude blocking over the next several years, in fact this is the most conducive ENSO/QBO/Solar configuration for blocking. In a nutshell the general physical reasoning for this has to do w/ low solar activity allowing for accumulation of ozone in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino enhancing transport (& destruction) into the mid-high latitudes, and easterly QBO focusing RW activity in the winter hemisphere and onto the polar vortex. Granted, the recent slowing of the north Atlantic branch of the thermohaline circulation (via melting from adjacent Greenland ice sheet and internal naturally-induced inertia built into the AMO) may act to thwart this unusually favorable bgd forcing... Wrt, cooler weather for the SE US during the spring, I've noticed that the -ENSO composites as well as extrapolation of the early winter analogs are suggesting a relative break down of this mild pattern over the spring, but it's uncertain whether we will go BN for once and/or this is actually still a legitimate possibility as I will have to re-initialize my analog packages when time permits...
 
On this run, the GFS puts the winter weather in the realistic area's. Still, not much in the way of winter weather. It will change to all rain as WAA kicks in.

Now, here comes my part that I've been watching...

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Looking at preliminary maps before system #2, it does appear that there will probably be colder air in place vs. the 0Z/6Z runs and may be more like the 18Z. Let's see. Could be good.
 
Here is the snow map that takes all frozen as snow. The mountains do well for wave #1.
gfs_asnow_seus_29.png
 
Nice little system trying to get organized with a 1033 HP for wave #2.
 
The energy is not as strong...not going to be a phased bomb this time I don't think...we have a chance!
 
Keep in mind, we go into Truncation now. So the important details lose a chunk of resolution. Not a horrible look through 192 for Wave #2!
 
Less CAD with system #2 vs prior runs but nice track. May still work well for parts of NC.
 
This marks 4 runs in a row of GFS showing a stout system around the same area with wave #2.
 
If you want to score with wave 2 that's about the best way to do it. The northern stream wave out runs the southern wave, you get a cold dry air mass in play then the southern wave comes through. Otherwise its a bomb on the front edge of a colder air mass and some places might change to snow but its meh overall
 
Verbatim, 40's for many in SC, GA, AL. Rain.​
Low crossing over/close to Tallahassee.
 
Track of 12Z was better (more SE) than that of 0z/6Z and similar to 18Z. The best hope for many is a track further SE by ~100 miles.
 
whatalife said:
Nice look... but cold air deprived for most...


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That track would nail us with ZR/Sleet in theory. Not sure we want the low crossing over FL that far North. BUT without much cold around, doesn't really matter.
 
Again I love this look climo wise for those in North Alabama/North Georgia/Upstate SC and further north, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, temps. It took a step in the right direction though I feel.
 
Shawn said:
That track would nail us with ZR/Sleet in theory. Not sure we want the low crossing over FL that far North. BUT without much cold around, doesn't really matter.
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Yep and I always hated theories class in college...LOL!


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Yes, this is an improvement on the 12z GFS. I think there will be a good winter event with that second wave.

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Need to start checking the ensemble members for temps now. The system is on it's 4th run of the GFS in a row after being off and on for a bit. If the majority of members aren't supportive of temps even close, we have a problem.
 
The track and look is perfect for a deep south Winter Storm but temps...But at this point this as good a look as you can ask for

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_35.png


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png


Temps in the Low 40s for Central Alabama and upper 30s for North Alabama. Cold chasing moisture will not cut it though unfortunately.
 
After this last fiasco for some of us here in Georgia, unless I have some decent cold air in place, I am not getting excited about winter weather in our neck of the woods. The way I look at it, if I have to wait on the cold air to arrive, I have a very low confidence forecast. The lack of cold air this year has been a killer for us. Anomalies like this won't work for us.
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Shawn said:
That track would nail us with ZR/Sleet in theory. Not sure we want the low crossing over FL that far North. BUT without much cold around, doesn't really matter.
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I think it could very well be cold enough with a track further SE as I think there'd be more cold air.
 
DaculaWeather said:
After this last fiasco for some of us here in Georgia, unless I have some decent cold air in place, I am not getting excited about winter weather in our neck of the woods. The way I look at it, if I have to wait on the cold air to arrive, I have a very low confidence forecast. The lack of cold air this year has been a killer for us. Anomalies like this won't work for us.
post images
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Truth. The last true snow storm we had here in CAE, the cold was entrenched well before the low rolled through. Then, the latest sleet/zr event in 2014 (big one), again, the high was anchored down well in place... with snowpack to the North.
 
Gonna take a wild guess with the CMC...it goes in the direction of welcome spring after that super bowl storm system.
 
DaculaWeather said:
After this last fiasco for some of us here in Georgia, unless I have some decent cold air in place, I am not getting excited about winter weather in our neck of the woods. The way I look at it, if I have to wait on the cold air to arrive, I have a very low confidence forecast. The lack of cold air this year has been a killer for us. Anomalies like this won't work for us.
post images
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And yet somehow we managed to get 2-3" of snow in early January !
 
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