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Pattern February Discussion

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Holding my breath for the EURO (no access for me right now)...I've looked at so many maps today that I've forgotten what the Euro looked like at 0z for the first wave???...I hate getting old...
The 0z Euro OP has that first system cutting. Maybe some overrunning of frozen precip for some but as that low gets kicked out...changing to all rain.

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So what happened with the Para? Looks like it threw in the towel 5 days ago. LOL
It's test run is done, it goes live in April or May, and will replace the old GFS at that time. Per the other board
 
Well there ya have it folks, models want no part in second wave atm
 
Me throwing winter in the bushes

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That Euro run was pretty close up this way to probably 2 systems. I am not sure wtf the Euro is doing with the day 10 system that is a mega shortwave coming across the US
 
So with the possibility of completely ending winter after the Super Bowl system, it's CMC/GEFS/EURO vs the GFS.

I have a feeling I know who's going to win this.
 
So with the possibility of completely ending winter after the Super Bowl system, it's CMC/GEFS/EURO vs the GFS.

I have a feeling I know who's going to win this.
What system? There is nothing winter about that system unless cold rain is considered winter.
 
That Euro run was pretty close up this way to probably 2 systems. I am not sure wtf the Euro is doing with the day 10 system that is a mega shortwave coming across the US

Could it be that the Doc is back to being drunk?
In all seriousness, Doc is still King and the GFS has been cold biased. I wish this weren't the case obviously. Keep hope alive though because there are always exceptions and Goofy was so close to something very special for many here near the start of a relatively quite favorable climo period.
 
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Could it be that the Doc is back to being drunk?
In all seriousness, Doc is still King and the GFS has been cold biased. I wish this weren't the case obviously. Keep hope alive though because there are always exceptions.
Even with the GFS, the majority of us are shut out of the Winter games.
 
That Euro run was pretty close up this way to probably 2 systems. I am not sure wtf the Euro is doing with the day 10 system that is a mega shortwave coming across the US
It's been everywhere. Keep in mind this time frame is still over a week away. We should not take the model output as something reasonable until at least 100 hours out, and even then it is susceptible to change, as we saw last storm the Euro flipped everywhere even 24 hours out. Don't throw this one in the trash can until we see cutter and/or torch be very consistent. However, it may very well be that it will keep showing a torch and we will get a torch. Who really knows, but I bet we will see one run the next 48 hours that will excite everyone.
 
Even with the GFS, the majority of us are shut out of the Winter games.

True, Shawn, but Goofy was close. I still think that a track 100-150 miles SE of the 12Z GFS would likely result in cold enough for a widespread winter storm, especially when considering history around that time of year (start of 2nd week in Feb.).
 
True, Shawn, but Goofy was close. I still think that a track 100-150 miles SE of the 12Z GFS would likely result in cold enough for a widespread winter storm, especially when considering history around that time of year (start of 2nd week in Feb.).
Yeah, but with recent storms over the last while, I'd like to see it cold and shoved down to Cuba. As we get closer, they always tend to come North.
 
Yeah, but with recent storms over the last while, I'd like to see it cold and shoved down to Cuba. As we get closer, they always tend to come North.
I would think we are in that time frame where it goes south. We have only had 4 consistent runs in a row where the storm appears in the Gulf, so it would be time to watch trends.
 
I would think we are in that time frame where it goes south. We have only had 4 consistent runs in a row where the storm appears in the Gulf, so it would be time to watch trends.
I tend to agree with you. Plus, it's much more likely that the storm misses a phase than becomes very wrapped up.
 
Yeah, but with recent storms over the last while, I'd like to see it cold and shoved down to Cuba. As we get closer, they always tend to come North.
We don't want to see it that way with it being that far out cause it usually tends to come farther and farther north and warmer. I like on where the GFS is placing the low and track. I'm not even worried about the temps right now. Just focusing on consistency of the storm signal and putting my thoughts on probable outcome. Models aren't going to be perfect and that's why we have to put human input (our thoughts) in them as well and not just let the model do all the work itself.

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Yeah, but with recent storms over the last while, I'd like to see it cold and shoved down to Cuba. As we get closer, they always tend to come North.

I don't disagree and the cold GFS bias is consistent with trending north. So, I, too. wouldn't bet against that. However, there are always exceptions and that time of year has had well above average winter storm activity for CAE, ATL, and others.
 
the 12z eps is a disaster . anyone that tells you otherwise is lying to you . 2m temps are on fire with a BRIEF 48 hour cool down day 8
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day 12
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2m temps on the eps during the period we are interested in are on fire

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Not saying that it can't happen, but I seriously doubt that it will verify. The Euro still has trouble with low-level cold air damming. The thing that concerns me most is that the Canadian, which is usually better in seeing potential CAD, is warm as well. Waiting on the models to trend toward a colder solution is not a good place to be. In my opinion, the first storm has the best chance for winter weather. As it has been stated over and over again.... we need some blocking if we want a board-wide event.
 
I just looked over the 12z Euro OP. It's about the same as it's 0z run, except the timing of that 2nd system. If you look at the vorticity, that energy over NM/TX is the 2nd system. You can see it being dragged in by the first system over the Pacific NW. The timing projection is more accurate on the Euro. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS showing the 2nd system coming in later on than what it has been showing. 10th-13th is the time as I been mentioning. Then again, it may come in early as the 8th or 9th just depends on how fast the first system comes in.

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I'm trying not to be overly negative or bittercast but even with the idea of yeah yeah its too early to look at details idea, I don't think we want to see a bunch of models showing an idea with a future pattern that is really bad for most of the US winter weather wise period. And its one that's very possible and IF it were to occur, its over winter wise.
 
the 12z eps is a disaster . anyone that tells you otherwise is lying to you . 2m temps are on fire with a BRIEF 48 hour cool down day 8
ced4d39392dd0022ad91b64fb47a830b.jpg


day 12
648331369a021e3440bbb22a100f32f8.jpg


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Winter cancel?


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We don't want to see it that way with it being that far out cause it usually tends to come farther and farther north and warmer. I like on where the GFS is placing the low and track. I'm not even worried about the temps right now. Just focusing on consistency of the storm signal and putting my thoughts on probable outcome. Models aren't going to be perfect and that's why we have to put human input (our thoughts) in them as well and not just let the model do all the work itself.

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time to start worrying about temps . all ops and ensembles are not even close . they are all too warm . the gefs and eps are disasters temp wise . to hell with the low , time to figure out where the cold source is cause right now there isn't one

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from Robert at WxSouth
But by Thursday night a new front sort of oozes down through the Ohio Valley and brings colder air back south toward the mid South region of Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, but again, nothing too cold.
Its at this point, the models all have different ideas going forward. The flow is "split" ,meaning part of the westerlies go up and over the Alaskan ridge. Another part of the jet comes directly ashore the West Coast. From then on, its a parade of waves in the streams and it could get interesting somewhere in the TN Valley, Apps or along the East Coast and MidAtlantic in early February. Timing on anything is hard to get a handle.
 
We don't want to see it that way with it being that far out cause it usually tends to come farther and farther north and warmer. I like on where the GFS is placing the low and track. I'm not even worried about the temps right now. Just focusing on consistency of the storm signal and putting my thoughts on probable outcome. Models aren't going to be perfect and that's why we have to put human input (our thoughts) in them as well and not just let the model do all the work itself.

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It's best to not focus on the temps. You really don't wanna know.


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time to start worrying about temps . all ops and ensembles are not even close . they are all too warm . the gefs and eps are disasters temp wise . to hell with the low , time to figure out where the cold source is cause right now there isn't one

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Yeah it's be multiple runs in a row of bad temps and at this point I don't see that changing, there's just nothing to push the cold air southward.
 
GFS OP barely cold enough for some, CMC down-right hot. Ensembles/Euro very warm.

It's Kaput.
 
The reason why I'm not worring/focusing on the temps is because that second system is beyond hr 192. Yes, the system shows up before hr 192 on the GFS but as the system pushes east it is beyond hr 192. The GFS loses resolution beyond hr. 192! Temps will change every run.

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