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Pattern February Discussion

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pcbjr said:
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Time to bring out the sun tanning lotion...


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Oh wow, the storm is showing up during that time period. I'm not looking at temps at this point. Just looking for that storm signal and the 18z GFS has it. Looking at temp maps in the long range isn't a good idea. It's not accurate from the GFS.

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Just don't understand the idea of a PV NOT setting up after a big storm like what is depicted. If this happens to be the ground truth in the long haul we can forget it with a winter storm.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Oh wow, the storm is showing up during that time period. I'm not looking at temps at this point. Just looking for that storm signal and the 18z GFS has it. Looking at temp maps in the long range isn't a good idea. It's not accurate from the GFS.

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lol looking at storms post day 5 on the gfs is a horrible idea. talk about not accurate

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Lol 18Z with stronger highs coming down from Canada than 12Z yet it is much warmer. It just rams the storm into all that confluence. Another good example of not paying a lot of attention to surface features at this lead.
 
Storm5 said:
lol looking at storms post day 5 on the gfs is a horrible idea. talk about not accurate

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The weeklies showed this storm during this period that I'm watching. The best thing to look for in the long range on the GFS is heights and storm signals. The GFS is accurate with storm signals in the mid to long range. Once it has consistency of that storm signal, then there will most likely be that storm. Not looking for the specifics with the storm itself at this point.

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If anything this winter has been busy in the severe department, I feel as maybe the upper south/MA would see a chance at a winter storm then the deep south at this point.
 
Storm5 said:
lol looking at storms post day 5 on the gfs is a horrible idea. talk about not accurate

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As much as I dislike the GFS, it did a decent job of predicting the early January system beyond 5 days.


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NorthGAWinterWx said:
The weeklies showed this storm during this period that I'm watching. The best thing to look for in the long range on the GFS is heights and storm signals. The GFS is accurate with storm signals in the mid to long range. Once it has consistency of that storm signal, then there will most likely be that storm. Not looking for the specifics with the storm itself at this point.

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accurate in the LR with storm signals???? Have you seen its verification scores in the LR. The gfs is never accurate with anything in the LR much less storm signals. That's why we see such MASSIVE changes at 500mb every 6 hours

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Storm5 said:
accurate in the LR with storm signals???? Have you seen its verification scores in the LR. The gfs is never accurate with anything in the LR much less storm signals. That's why we see such MASSIVE changes at 500mb every 6 hours

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I totally agree
 
Storm5 said:
accurate in the LR with storm signals???? Have you seen its verification scores in the LR. The gfs is never accurate with anything in the LR much less storm signals. That's why we see such MASSIVE changes at 500mb every 6 hours

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I was stating that in general the best thing to look for in the long range on the GFS is storm signals and heights. I wasn't looking at heights in the time period I'm keeping an eye on just yet (not in depth any way). Just that storm signal alone. The weeklies are more accurate than the GFS. On the 18z GFS run the storm signal is there, supporting what the weekly showed.

I'm not sure what Weather Bell shows as the weeklies cause I don't use Weather Bell. Accu pro actually shows the 1000-500 maps on the weeklies. Does any here use Accu Pro as well?

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