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Pattern February Discussion

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Shawn said:
Here's after that second wave. What the..?

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Rain with that 540? It must be showing real warm above ....
 
GaWx said:
Shawn,
I know you may be thinking about the 18Z GFS' proposed wave #3 being during primetime for Columbia!
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Yeah, that would be good for a chunk of people if it were to get going a bit sooner. Did you take a look at the energy?
 
GaWx said:
So, are we going to have a wave #3 to track for 2/10-1??
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Larry, don't think we could handle a 3rd rain storm out of this pattern! It would be mass hysteria and pandemonium
 
Tarheel1 said:
Larry, don't think we could handle a 3rd rain storm out of this pattern! It would be mass hysteria and pandemonium
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Mack,
You know there is but one "rainstorm" and he/she left years ago for parts unknown. ;)

Edit: the poster "rainstorm" may be before Mack's time on wx BB's.
 
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Shawn said:
Yeah, that would be good for a chunk of people if it were to get going a bit sooner. Did you take a look at the energy?
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Oh yes. Of course it may just be Goofy playing around. OTOH, it is primetime climo for a Miller A crossing FL. So, we need to monitor this period since there's a lot of energy flying around along with a nice +PNA and potential cold air to the north.
 
That system showing up in the 10th-11th...never mind I better not say no further lol.

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accu35 said:
540 line that south, would that be more than just rain for AL/GA?
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Exactly the same question I raised a few posts back - I'm mobile and can't pull stuff up right now to look, and then have to Skype a client in Tokyo, Japan, in a while, but I'm wondering what 850's and surface temps are modeled to look like then ...
 
pcbjr said:
Exactly the same question I raised a few posts back - I'm mobile and can't pull stuff up right now to look, and then have to Skype a client in Tokyo, Japan, in a while, but I'm wondering what 850's and surface temps are modeled to look like then ...
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Here is the skew-T for the center of the county I am in at 264.
gfs_2017013018_264_34.25--84.0.png
 
there are MANY cutters on the 18z gfs for the second and possible 3rd wave . MANY


there are about 7 or 8 that have a more miller A type look . most are too warm lol
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I think I can see why the 3rd wave if it were to come to fruition is very close to being something that would never be seen again if it worked out. There is tons of energy in Florida with this one at the upper levels. Imagine that working early.

But again the GFS is completely on its own. Every other model is suggesting the worst case scenario possible with the future pattern that would end winter.
 
The big problem is the fact even though we get that nice ridge over Ak it gets undercut and we see energy spill down the eastern side of the ridge itself into the PNW and we start to see big systems in that area.There is no good way to tap arctic air with a west to northwest flow across the CONUS thus you get these close call airmasses across the northern parts of the south and near normal to the south. If we were to have a nice western ridge coupled with that Alaskan ridge we would be looking at significantly colder period upcoming but one that might be somewhat inactive since the pacific wave train would be blocked from entering the US. Overall though I see no good reason to punt winter yet....
 
All I can say is that the GFS is having serious issues. In the meantime, I'm going to make a new music playlist for tonight's 0z run.

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Storm5 said:
Latest weeklies say close the February thread

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Disagree...I'll take my chances with the look for the 2nd half of feb. The big issue would be a loss of all the cold toward Siberia but give me an Aleutian low and western ridge any day

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SD said:
Disagree...I'll take my chances with the look for the 2nd half of feb

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I mean they improve the last week of Feb into March but by then we are pushing our luck

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Storm5 said:
I mean they improve the last week of Feb into March but by then we are pushing our luck

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I won't say what I sent you through FB but I will say sometimes you gotta take what you can get

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Facebook live coming up in less than 30 mins.

Cant wait to see reactions.
 
whatalife said:
Poor Charlie. Someone peed in his cereal this morning...LOL!


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I mean I understand the concern but I'll take the Aleutian low some western ridging and eastern trough look versus a trough in the SW and a ridge in the east.

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SD said:
I mean I understand the concern but I'll take the Aleutian low some western ridging and eastern trough look versus a trough in the SW and a ridge in the east.

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Absolutely. It's better then nothing.


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Storm5 said:
I mean they improve the last week of Feb into March but by then we are pushing our luck

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March 1960 says hello!!
#GRASPINGATSTRAWS
 
Here is a video I just recorded. I hope this clears things up.

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JB and Cohen are doing Skype interviews with us? Wow!
 
Who was doing the live stream? Was it SD or Storm5?

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