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Pattern February Discussion

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SD said:
Storm. I'll be there for live shows and model runs.

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Oh, I was just curious. I did drop in for the live stream. Sounds like some awesome stuff is headed our way for the site.

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Come on guys... that's big time! Judah Cohen and JB what??!! And like the swag....if you missed the video check it out on FB.

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Just checked the 12z EPS, it agrees with it's OP. That Gulf low could very well cut that's been showing on the GFS. EPS is interesting 11th-14th.

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DGEX baby!:p
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Looking forward - relaxation for 5 or so days and then could be OK, or better, if the MJO gets to the 8 ball round (not inside the left circle as GaWx (and I) prefer, unfortunately, but better than outside on the right until ...)

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pcbjr said:
Looking forward - relaxation for 5 or so days and then could be OK, or better, if the MJO gets to the 8 ball round (not inside the left circle as GaWx (and I) prefer, unfortunately, but better than outside on the right until ...)

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I'm actually excited about the mjo progression

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pcbjr said:
Me too - that's why I posted it!!!! Folks get to caught up in op runs and forget tropical and other driving mechanisms
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The mjo is what gives me optimism for the rest of winter honestly

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SD, imo, if this displacement /PV split don't materialize for us, we can throw in towel very soon. That's only thing keeping me somewhat intrigued. The big shots are banging the drum on idea still.
 
Good model agreement so far with the 12z Euro OP. Comparing the 0z GFS with the 12z Euro tonight.

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Golferwhotries said:
SD, imo, if this displacement /PV split don't materialize for us, we can throw in towel very soon. That's only thing keeping me somewhat intrigued. The big shots are banging the drum on idea still.
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One small - and I do mean small - part of the picture right now - it's a snare vs a kettle drum
 
Golferwhotries said:
SD, imo, if this displacement /PV split don't materialize for us, we can throw in towel very soon. That's only thing keeping me somewhat intrigued. The big shots are banging the drum on idea still.
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The displacement is well underway. The euro splits the 30 and 50mb vortices by day 10 good things happening above

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SD said:
The displacement is well underway. The euro splits the 30 and 50mb vortices by day 10 good things happening above

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Fab April? Just in time to ruin severe season. :|
 
The gfs continues to show a metwannabe special late Thursday into Friday

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pcbjr said:
One small - and I do mean small - part of the picture right now - it's a snare vs a kettle drum
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Like I said, that's only thing that's keeping me from throwing in the towel. I want to see ultimately what happens. A -ao or nao would be game changers for us imo. I think one should focus more on that possibility. That will be only thing that will save some of winter what we have left of it but I could be wrong
 
Well if wave #3 shows back up being close like today's 18z run, I will be ecstatic! For those that missed it, go back and check out 500mb vort maps for it.
 
That Gulf low should cut on this one. Placement of HP is right on with the 12z Euro.

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The gfs has ticked colder over the last few runs for the start of the weekend.

Edit: Now it's about the same at 114.
 
This new GFS 00z run is looking much different than earlier runs. We are certainly still in time frame for huge changes in overall forecast.
 
Honestly, this run looks like the first of it's kind for the system in the NW and overall H5 @144.. Could be an interesting run for sure.
 
18z kinda looked like it phased with the storm around Feb 5th, this time it just looks like a frontal passage, probably going to be a quick thump of wintry in North Carolina (maybe to the south too).
 
bouncycorn said:
Honestly, this run looks like the first of it's kind for the system in the NW and overall H5 @144.. Could be an interesting run for sure.
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Looking at it is such a change, I had to check I was on the right run. At least it won't be the same as lately. Regardless of outcome.
 
Ehhhh, not looking good in the pac NW for our second system. A strong low forms and looks to move across southern Canada.
 
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