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Pattern February Discussion

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Maybe the Doc will be drunk tonight and bring home the bacon! Any takers on that possibility?
 
GaWx said:
Maybe the Doc will be drunk tonight and bring home the bacon! Any takers on that possibility?
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I wouldn't be shocked at all to watch the euro go to a colder solution while the cmc and gfs go warmer. it would be fitting

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I'm not surprised by the changes of the 0z GFS. The Euro showed that it could happen and it did with that 0z run.

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The GFS actually overcorrected. It went further NW than the Euro. It'd be fitting if the GFS and Euro basically swapped places.

I'm still shaking my head. I think I'm going to check out of checking out comments on the Euro tonight. That run was nuts.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
What's it looking like for 11th-14th?

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it's still coming out , but it looks active with multiple solutions from app runners, to cutters to a few gulf lows . but the gulf lows look really warm and show rain

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Things look ugly, I don't believe them!! Of course I'm never right................ I believe the SE will get at least one more good winter storm before spring.
 
SD said:
The gfs continues to show a metwannabe special late Thursday into Friday

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You keep saying these things and they keep failing to occur..... stop stealing my mojo. Lol
 
Storm5 said:
Webberweather is smoking all the paid seasonal forecasters out there. His outlook has been spot on

just saying

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If JB would just forecast a torch winter forecast once! He might be right!
 
Storm5 said:
Webberweather is smoking all the paid seasonal forecasters out there. His outlook has been spot on

just saying
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Definitely. One thing that has been interesting is that most were calling for a warm February and early spring back in November. Then as January rolled through they changed to a colder Feb based on strat warming and other indicators. Looks like they should have stuck with their original forecasts.
 
Storm5 said:
this might be one of the best posts ever !

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accu35 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png
I think this system has potential.
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If the low center was 300 miles further southeast, but we all know that won't happen. This has been trending NW with each model run and it will not change unless we get some blocking. A 1026 high centered north of the Lakes will not get it done. Looks good if you're in Ohio.
 
Stormlover said:
so it's all negative, all the time now? he's right, it's not far from bringing snow to many of us
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it's called reality . good luck getting snow with the low plowing into eastern Tennessee. plus I'm speaking about that run VERBATIM . relax man we all want winter weather

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gfs_asnow_us_41.png
just saying, this is far out so it has Potential. It has time to go either way NW or South. It's not far from being something good
 
Yesterday's 12z Euro had that system coming in the Pacific NW 7th-8th. If you compare the 06z GFS at 192 and yesterday's 12z Euro run at hr 234... you can see the similarities.

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Storm5 said:
yep it does , looks like a good rain maker

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I like it! It's not negative at all! Sometimes the truth hurts!
 
ao.sprd2.gif

AO forecast to plunge..... PNA forecast to remain positive. If only the darn NAO would go negative, we would be in great shape.
 
Storm5 said:
Webberweather is smoking all the paid seasonal forecasters out there. His outlook has been spot on

just saying

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packfan98 said:
Definitely. One thing that has been interesting is that most were calling for a warm February and early spring back in November. Then as January rolled through they changed to a colder Feb based on strat warming and other indicators. Looks like they should have stuck with their original forecasts.
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Thanks! Yeah, there are obviously some things I can work on and it's not perfect, but a few valuable points I've learned over the past few years in doing this and aworth brining up here, are that I think if more long range forecasters treated historical analogs like a computer model and produced forecasts that the public, weather enthusiasts, and researchers needed to hear instead of interjecting their own inherently biased, emotionally motivated forecasts, we wouldn't have nearly as many issues w/ seasonal forecasts. I meticulously tweaked and weighted my analog package to where it provided an adequate hindcast and properly initialized current atmospheric, oceanic conditions as well as external forcings which provided an operational analog composite. Then, I produced analog composite members w/ slight variations of this operational analog composite to detect the array of potential variability from the background state to derive uncertainty estimates and the spread in possible solutions for each mont. I merged those composites together, and then used an older, cooler base period (1895-2000) to slant the composites towards above normal temperatures to account for the recent spike in global temperatures and increased frequency in AN-well AN temperatures in the US and southeastern US. I also was fortunate that intraseasonal variability has been suppressed this year (thanks in large part due to the exceptional westerly QBO regime), my forecast likely would be more susceptible to large/egregious errors if rampant MJO activity had dominated the global tropics. I wasn't particularly impressed w/ the stratospheric warming event. Aside from the already unfavorable QBO/solar bgd, we turn cooler much less frequently following major SSWEs or displacements in neutral-NINA winters, El Nino SSWEs on the other hand tend to consistently produce amazing results especially here in the SE US (obviously coupling & juxtaposition to bgd ENSO helps a lot). I'm actually becoming a little concerned that I wasn't warm enough nationwide in February, although I will probably be fine in the southern US... I think my forecast as a whole for Feb will be okay, but it will be hard pressed to get BN temps down into the central Rockies, however, it's more feasible in the northern Rockies & Pacific northwest. I guess I shouldn't complain terribly much considering I made the forecast at the beginning of December.
 
Well Eric, at least you didn't go "cold and snowy" because you're a weenie or money grabber. Doesn't matter exactly how much you were off on warmth, you had the general idea that looks to be coming true.

And guys, I know seeing a prolonged period of "blue and green" on temp anomaly maps is good to see, but it isn't required to get a Winter storm. The month can be above average, and still produce a Wintry event. I have to go back and research more into the year, but in 1973 we were close to 80F here in CAE before the infamous snowstorm (biggest on modern record here), and then a few days later we were back to the 70s.
 
Shawn said:
Well Eric, at least you didn't go "cold and snowy" because you're a weenie or money grabber. Doesn't matter exactly how much you were off on warmth, you had the general idea that looks to be coming true.

And guys, I know seeing a prolonged period of "blue and green" on temp anomaly maps is good to see, but it isn't required to get a Winter storm. The month can be above average, and still produce a Wintry event. I have to go back and research more into the year, but in 1973 we were close to 80F here in CAE before the infamous snowstorm (biggest on modern record here), and then a few days later we were back to the 70s.
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You are right. This month will end up around 8 degrees above normal and I saw 2-3" of snow, so a cold month is not necessary. Feb 2015 was 7 below normal and I had no snow at all.
 
Best part of living in the Southeast, you never know what you going to get
 
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