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Pattern February Discussion

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Oh lord, Winter ice threat returns even down to CAE this 00z GFS run.
 
0z Euro looks like the storm is going to cut with that first system. There's a HP sitting on the SC/NC boarder at 168... definitely a cutter look setting up. Just another possible solution that it could cut.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Storm5, what are the snowfall member snowfall maps looking like during the 10th-13th time period? Accu pro don't have the snowfall member maps. I bet there will be some good members in there.

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the majority of the snow on the gefs members falls before the 11th. the system after the 11th on the 00z gefs cuts in every which way . not many wintry solutions post the 11th

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Storm5 said:
the majority of the snow on the gefs members falls before the 11th. the system after the 11th on the 00z gefs cuts in every which way . not many wintry solutions post the 11th

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someone's up ealry
 
gfs_asnow_us_41.png
cut across TN, but not a cutter.
 
snod.conus.png
Here's the 6z GEFS. The signal is for the I-77 corridor in the NC mountains and foothills. Seems like there is at least one storm every year that matches this profile. This could be the one for this year.
 
packfan98 said:
Thanks! I'd love to hear (or see) some more EPS analysis when you have time. Hopefully less cutters this run.
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Yeah reid said it best , they have a little of everything. thing is though it's very active and presents many ways to score from a miller A , to southern slider to a an apps runner . days 7-12 are popping on the eps .
3cf78a57dc37143355c444b9fb402d63.jpg


that's a really big increase on the mean. it is skewed by two MASSIVE members but there was a bug increase on the number of members showing something vs previous runs .

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Euro and GFS are not consistent at all with the specifics this far out, but the storm signal showing is definitely there. Reminds me of how the last storm played out with the models this far out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Euro and GFS are not consistent at all with the specifics this far out, but the storm signal showing is definitely there. Reminds me of how the last storm played out with the models this far out.
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Except only one run has had a massive storm so far. GFS looks like it wants to set up some icing, but will change at 12Z guaranteed. Euro is doing what it has done all along and is just throwing blind darts, hoping to get it right like it did last time. Maybe we should just spin a wheel to see what this one will be. lol
 
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