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Pattern February Discussion

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Second one has some good snow in North Carolina and is an ice storm in South Carolina, the ice gets pretty uncomfortably close to me but thankfully the low track is far enough north I don't see anything (which I'm fine with due to it being ice).
 
Wow that's a nice storm. Quick hitting northern stream system deposits some nice low dewpoints then the bigger system moves in

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GFS looks great! Look at that wedge, yo!
 
Much better look with that system on this run. I agree with the model showing the winter wx confined to northern TN, NC and KY. CAD over the typical area's but I think the WAA will over take over the CAD for some. Then again, this entire system could just get suppressed.

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I'm not terribly enthused about the idea of a storm after this one (or two?). Either there's going to be a PV that parks up ahead in Canada and the far NE US that just suppresses everything and then a torch later or we're just going to torch after it. Maybe said PV ends up a little weaker and something can be snuck underneath it but...yeah.
 
The time frame I'm watching is coming up. Come on GFS.

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well a storm is trying to set up that has a good climatological look but it's not cold enough. (or is it?)
 
I like the look on the 500 MB maps for this storm if it can move. Just question the temps...although it's a bit early to be doing it.
 
The look I want to see is there. Of course models will have a hard time pointing out certain things with it being far out.

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Everyone on the other board (mostly people in the Carolinas) seem a lot happier with this run than people on this board do.
 
Wow, that was such a good run for the time period I'm watching. Just checked the 500mb, nice ridgeing out west and blocking going on to the NE (models have shown this look before) trough digging down nicely. The 10th-13th is our window for the bigger winter system.

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So the GFS has two southern slider solutions, I'll take my chances with at least one of them working. If it's not the first one, it'll be the second one.

It's just as possible that it doesn't happen but if the idea of a quick storm happening before the real thing ends up verifying (as shown here) I actually think there's a good chance an upper south winter storm ends up actually happening around the super bowl.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
So the GFS has two southern slider solutions, I'll take my chances with at least one of them working. If it's not the first one, it'll be the second one.

It's just as possible that it doesn't happen but if the idea of a quick storm happening before the real thing ends up verifying (as shown here) I actually think there's a good chance an upper south winter storm ends up actually happening around the super bowl.
Click to expand...
Well, at least we won't have to worry about that in GA, because I would be crushed if my power went out for the big game.
 
If that blocking holds true, we can easily see a decent strong low (maybe a 995mb low, 29.38). I want to see good amplification with a low and that blocking to the NE may just do the trick for a decent strong low.

2m anomalies are looking good during this time period and also the 850 anomalies are looking good too.

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Storm5, what are the snowfall member snowfall maps looking like during the 10th-13th time period? Accu pro don't have the snowfall member maps. I bet there will be some good members in there.

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gfs_asnow_us_41.png
Oz gfs
 
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