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Pattern February Discussion

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So far, 0z GFS is agreeing with 12z Euro OP. Should see some big changes on this run far as I can tell.

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Actually it's only out to 156 so our first system hasn't even hit yet... Crazy run inbound! Remember the last time we had a crazy different 00z GFS run? Early JAN... about this far out.
 
Geeeeezzzz, look at the strength of that storm coming in from the Pacific. There's another storm that is trying to pop to the south of it but that strong storm diving in from Canada may flood warm air into much of the US.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
So far, 0z GFS is agreeing with 12z Euro OP. Should see some big changes on this run far as I can tell.

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The ECMWF had a wrapped up trough in the NW CONUS.. The new GFS has no such thing but does have lots of s/w energy over Nevada. @GFS 162
 
After 2/5, it warms up on the GFS. First run that begins to join the other guidance here, but we'll see if it's temporary.
 
00z GFS? We bake! lol Huge low over in the plains. Maybe it'll dig into the gulf and that high in Canada will drop in?
 
bouncycorn said:
The ECMWF had a wrapped up trough in the NW CONUS.. The new GFS has no such thing but does have lots of s/w energy over Nevada. @GFS 162
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Yep, just seen that, there is some changes as it gets into that hr but it's roughly about the same.

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strong pac flow=warm warm warm

We were saying this... The GFS was the only model that didn't have it warm for a while but every other model did, and now the GFS is with the warm trend. This is very bad.
 
The DGEX is due to be right once, I mean it can be right one in a thousand times...right?:D
of course knowing it, it will change drastically in the morning.:(
 
Jesus, is this a triple phaser, or at least one phase? That low is at a very low pressure.

This would be major snow in the north and a severe weather event in the south.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Jesus, is this a triple phaser, or at least one phase? That low is at a very low pressure.

This would be major snow in the north and a severe weather event in the south.
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The best is yet to come. This is just absolutely ridiculous for a run.
 
We should start to see our winter storm to take shape...

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This GFS run isn't drunk lol..it's agreeing with the 12z Euro OP and EPS.

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We should see something interesting 10th-14th according to the 12z EPS

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This is so ridiculous, I just closed all the modeling sites.
 
That storm is so massive on the GFS there probably isn't going to be anything after it.

and lol, GFS goes from showing a gulf low to a triple phaser that cuts....uh what?
 
That should be our winter storm (something close to it) coming in the Pacific NW at 240

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The EPS honestly doesn't look good for 10-15. In fact, it shows the high retrograding to our east, pushing warm air into the region.
 
Not a good day, modelwise. New day starts tomorrow 06z. Let's hope for some new trends lol.


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Is it my imagination or is that a Marchlike SE massive rainstorm during the heart of SE snow climo, 2/13-4?
 
GaWx said:
Is it my imagination or is that a Marchlike SE massive rainstorm during the heart of SE slow climo, 2/13-4?
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Even better. It's likely severe weather with the dynamics of the system. It might have been a triple phaser, and it at least phased.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Even better. It's likely severe weather with the dynamics of the system. It might have been a triple phaser, and it at least phased.
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GG, You think lots of severe with that setup even with the last of that cool wedge hanging on for dear life? I do see +12C 850's along the SE coast and an inland 995 mb low. So, I do see the reason for your suggestion of severe. I don't think severe would make it up to Atlanta-Augusta.
 
12z Euro EPS is colder during that 11th-14th period. Oh well, that run was still fun and systems are showing up.

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GaWx said:
GG, You think lots of severe with that setup even with the last of that cool wedge hanging on for dear life? I do see +12C 850's along the SE coast and an inland 995 mb low. So, I do see the reason for your suggestion of severe. I don't think severe would make it up to Atlanta-Augusta.
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Not a lot, but some mild severe in the southern areas of the states.
 
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