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Pattern February Discussion

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
The reason why I'm not worring/focusing on the temps is because that second system is beyond hr 192. Yes, the system shows up before hr 192 on the GFS but as the system pushes east it is beyond hr 192. The GFS loses resolution beyond hr. 192! Temps will change every run.

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it's not even close temp wise. it's one thing if it was showing upper 30, then yeah wouldn't worry. but it's in the 50s and 60s big difference

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Its only the GFS that was close temps wise, and even then it was 40s.

And its the GFS on its own right now, just about everything else suggests that the issue in Alaska is going to come true, and if so, its forget about it here.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The reason why I'm not worring/focusing on the temps is because that second system is beyond hr 192. Yes, the system shows up before hr 192 on the GFS but as the system pushes east it is beyond hr 192. The GFS loses resolution beyond hr. 192! Temps will change every run.

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While I'm hoping you are right...As Charlie has pointed out there is very little if any support at this time for this 2nd system to bring anything wintery to most in the SE.


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Well, if my prediction comes true, just thank me later lol. If my prediction doesn't come true that's okay too. So far, I've been correct about a storm showing up after the first system. My timing is a little off from what the GFS is showing but still, my prediction is coming true so far with the storm signal.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Well, if my prediction comes true, just thank me later lol. If my prediction doesn't come true that's okay too. So far, I've been correct about a storm showing up after the first system. My timing is a little off from what the GFS is showing but still, my prediction is coming true so far with the storm signal.

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I think everyone on here can agree that we love anyone and everyone to contribute meaningful information to the board.. but you reminding us that you might or might not be right every 10 minutes is getting annoying. Just keep it to analysis rather than so much tooting of your own horn. Especially since everything is a dumpster fire right now and your original guesses have been somewhat off.
 
Cross-Posting Storm5's video. 8PM EST. 7PM Central! You guys are gonna poop if he announces some things I think he may.

 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I think everyone on here can agree that we love anyone and everyone to contribute meaningful information to the board.. but you reminding us that you might or might not be right every 10 minutes is getting annoying. Just keep it to analysis rather than so much tooting of your own horn. Especially since everything is a dumpster fire right now and your original guesses have been somewhat off.
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Well, I compare past model runs and I analyze with newer data. That's probably why it sounds like I might or might not be right every 10 mins. If a member asks me a question. I'm going to answer it back with my opinion. We all have different opinions and I'm just sharing my opinions like every one else here.

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The new GFS coming in looks like the high is about 5mb stronger in the west as the second system forms. The first system is a total early phase and cut though (in fact, the secondary never really forms)
 
Shawn said:
Cross-Posting Storm5's video. 8PM EST. 7PM Central! You guys are gonna poop if he announces some things I think he may.

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Shawn - I'll be on a Skype with Tokyo then - is there/will there be a link to watch a replay?
Phil
 
2nd wave is too warm for majority of us.
 
pcbjr said:
Shawn - I'll be on a Skype with Tokyo then - is there/will there be a link to watch a replay?
Phil
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I think you can go back and watch FB live videos later, but not totally sure.
 
yeah.... this isn't gonna work
e832f2d71d0ba56f4fb06b4e6d744c3e.jpg


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May as well be late October with this look. /done with winter.
 
A favorable climo track is going to go to complete waste with the way this looks. This has been the coldest model and it's still way too warm.
 
Shawn said:
May as well be late October with this look. /done with winter.
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.... but surely there's a model from somewhere in Thailand, or North Korea or Brazil or someplace that has just the right run we'd all like to see ... LOL
 
Temps as the Low is wrapping up off the coast of SC. Not even close.

gfs_T2m_seus_37.png
 
Then some magical way, parts of NC get some backend snow as it pulls away.
 
Lol at this energy. Another system on the heels? Lets see.
 
It's fun to track rainstorms, we are getting to be pros at it!
 
Here's after that second wave. What the..?

wtf.png
 
GaWx said:
So, are we going to have a wave #3 to track for 2/10-1??
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That Wave #3 is very close to being something we might would have a hard time seeing again in our life-times in the SE.
 
Something got to give with one of the 3 systems lol. SMH
 
Shawn said:
That Wave #3 is very close to being something we might would have a hard time seeing again in our life-times in the SE.
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Shawn,
I know you may be thinking about the 18Z GFS' proposed wave #3 being during primetime for Columbia!
 
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