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Pattern February Discussion

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DaculaWeather said:
After this last fiasco for some of us here in Georgia, unless I have some decent cold air in place, I am not getting excited about winter weather in our neck of the woods. The way I look at it, if I have to wait on the cold air to arrive, I have a very low confidence forecast. The lack of cold air this year has been a killer for us. Anomalies like this won't work for us.
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that's January, what does that have to do with what we are talking about in 10 days or so?
 
Wow I knew the temps were an improvement, but now that I saw a map that was blown up a bit, it's a big improvement. It won't cut it but it's not that far from doing it.
 
Stormlover said:
that's January, what does that have to do with what we are talking about in 10 days or so?
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I think what he means is we really didn't do too well in Jan for the most part temp or storm wise. There are signs that the majority of Feb could end up warm and crap too.
 
Shawn said:
I think what he means is we really didn't do too well in Jan for the most part temp or storm wise. There are signs that the majority of Feb could end up warm and crap too.
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As long as the first half of Feb delivers, I don't care what happens in the second half. First half of Feb 2011 wasn't bad and then the second half was a torch I believe.
 
DaculaWeather said:
Yes, what I mean is unless I see some decent cold air, I'm not excited at this point. The timing of the last storm depended on the timing of the cold, and that didn't work out for many people.
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Yep, when temps aren't even close it's hard to get excited.
 
Ice map from the first wave:
zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Still need some of that make its own cold magic!?
 
I'm looking over the 0z Euro EPS, it is colder but the storm is weaker and being suppressed. I'm not sure why people are looking for details with temperatures. It is way, way too early to determine details of temps. We're in that stage on where we're looking for consistency of track of low and the storm signal. We're not quite in that stage to start determining details of the storm.

Going back to the 12z GFS, that high that starts coming down at 216, that HP should be more like over the upper Plains. You know my saying, good weather follows bad weather.


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12z gefs just took most of my hope away

massive temperature problems, pathetic looking highs on the individual members

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Webberweather53 said:
Thanks for the feedback! I think wrt solar minimum, if we are able to observe another easterly QBO/weak-moderate CP NINO combo in concert w/ this solar background, then it's feasible we could see at least 1 or 2 winters with exceptional high latitude blocking over the next several years, in fact this is the most conducive ENSO/QBO/Solar configuration for blocking. In a nutshell the general physical reasoning for this has to do w/ low solar activity allowing for accumulation of ozone in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino enhancing transport (& destruction) into the mid-high latitudes, and easterly QBO focusing RW activity in the winter hemisphere and onto the polar vortex. Granted, the recent slowing of the north Atlantic branch of the thermohaline circulation (via melting from adjacent Greenland ice sheet and internal naturally-induced inertia built into the AMO) may act to thwart this unusually favorable bgd forcing... Wrt, cooler weather for the SE US during the spring, I've noticed that the -ENSO composites as well as extrapolation of the early winter analogs are suggesting a relative break down of this mild pattern over the spring, but it's uncertain whether we will go BN for once and/or this is actually still a legitimate possibility as I will have to re-initialize my analog packages when time permits...
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Thanks for the info. It would be a shame to finally get a favorable QBO/Solar state for blocking, only to have it ruined by an unfavorable evolution of ocean currents.
 
The 0z Euro deterministic run doesn't look bad for that second wave at the last hr. Too bad it doesn't go little further out. I can see the beginnings of the second wave. There is a LP reading over TX with the Arctic high to the north. That is a start of a good look. Can't wait to the 12z runs come in.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
The 0z Euro deterministic run doesn't look bad for that second wave at the last hr. Too bad it doesn't go little further out. I can see the beginnings of the second wave. There is a LP reading over TX with the Arctic high to the north. That is a start of a good look. Can't wait to the 12z runs come in.

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huh? the euro has the second wave at day 8 . it's horrible
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Well, the GEFS has spoken for the second wave. Warm. Need a lot of changes to squeak something out for most on the board. Sad that Wave #1 is looking more promising my way now.
 
Storm5 said:
huh? the euro has the second wave at day 8 . it's horrible
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There I circled in red of what I was talking about. That is the beginnings of the second system if it holds together. The timing is better IMO on the Euro. We had that discussion yesterday about the timing.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
There I circled in red of what I was talking about. That is the beginnings of the second system if it holds together. The timing is better IMO on the Euro. We had that discussion yesterday about the timing.

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thats not the second wave. the euro has the second wave I posted it above . anything post day 10 on the euro would be a third wave

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Now I'm looking at the GEFS on the maps I can, it's entirely different from the GFS and I'm guessing that its a much, much warmer look too (and the GFS was already too warm). I'm guessing it's probably 60s-70s during this time period on the GFS.

So it's not 60s-70s, but its basically as warm as the 6z GFS is.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Now I'm looking at the GEFS on the maps I can, it's entirely different from the GFS and I'm guessing that its a much, much warmer look too (and the GFS was already too warm). I'm guessing it's probably 60s-70s during this time period on the GFS.

So it's not 60s-70s, but its basically as warm as the 6z GFS is.
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When the Canadian is warm this time of the year, it's time to take notice. Not that the Canadian is absolutely horrible or anything, but it does tend to be way cold in the longer range. It's ice storm happy if that makes sense.
 
Storm5 said:
that not the second wave. the euro ha the second wave I posted it above . anything post day 10 on the euro would be a third wave

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There could be some precip overrunning before the actual low gets kicked out with that first system. I think that's what's confusing people, thinking that when low gets kicked out is the second wave. If you compare the 12z GFS at hr 174 and the 0z Euro deterministic, you can see the difference and see what I'm talking about. The Euro is slower with that second system.

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Details don't concern me too much, but what concerns me is one of the options in the overall pattern will effectively wrap up winter unless you're in the mountains. If the PV splits and a piece moves over Alaska it's going to end winter. With us being near this time period, we're going to see model runs that show what will happen if this happens.
 
12z CMC agrees with the slower timing of that second system. It shows the beginning of the second system dropping down into the Plains by hr 204-210 roughly. Take note that the resolution of the CMC is terrible in the long range.

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yeah yeah...screw details, but the issue with the CMC for me is it's in a completely different direction from the GFS after the Super Bowl and worrisomely enough it's a direction that's possible.

I hope I'm wrong but the second batch is in all likelihood going to be nothing without several changes coming soon.
 
That system moving from west to east on the CMC from 162 to 204 is good. That allows colder air to come in and allows for a HP to move in across the Dakotas/upper mid west. This is what we want to see. That second system should slip underneath that HP just like the 0z Euro deterministic is showing. Also, the EPS dose have that system moving from west to east as well. The GFS doesn't have that system moving from west to east.

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Holding my breath for the EURO (no access for me right now)...I've looked at so many maps today that I've forgotten what the Euro looked like at 0z for the first wave???...I hate getting old...
 
The GFS late in the run shows a -NAO and massive Greenland block, but because of the Alaska vort it's merely....cool instead of cold.
 
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