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Pattern February Discussion

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12z GFS tries to reinforce the PV dynamic in Canada, doesn't do it strongly enough for the southeast, does do it strongly enough for the MA/NE.

That's your difference from the 0z and 6z.
 
It doesn't really matter what storms show after this storm, if there isn't at least a PV dynamic up above, it won't be a winter storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm pretty sure aside from subsequent melting and its effect on the ambient temperature, sun angle doesn't matter a whole lot to begin with if you're encased in a thick cloud deck during the middle of a storm...
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Agreed. Also, one way to solve the faster melting is to get sleet instead. The 2/17-8/79 great ATL sleet took seemingly forever to melt! Ahhhh, the glories of a good sleet.
 
Storm5 said:
12z was an improvement with the track it's much further south vs 00z and south of 06z fwiw

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Yeah, we have seen this before. Seems to be the norm for the models now to show a threat north, then move it way south, and then back NW as we get closer.
 
The look with the dynamics from 288-312 is pretty good if something can slip underneath it.

problem is I'm not sure that something can.
 
Just to throw my two cents in about winter weather in south, if you're south of Tennessee/North Carolina, there is a window but it's VERY short. The window is January-mid February, about 6 weeks.

Now it doesn't mean winter weather won't happen before and after then, but it's rarer than January-mid February, and the best events tend to happen in a short stretch in February.

Back on this time period we want to try to reel in:

If there were cold air in place, the track that the CMC shows would be good for Tennessee/North Carolina.

There isn't cold air in place to start though.
 
12z gefs favors a cutter
there are plenty of members that bring wintry to the southeast but it's all in different ways. some have the low far enough south but most are backside situations as the low pulls away
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GaWx said:
Agreed. Also, one way to solve the faster melting is to get sleet instead. The 2/17-8/79 great ATL sleet took seemingly forever to melt! Ahhhh, the glories of a good sleet.
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An inch of sleet probably has the staying power of about 3-4 inches of straight up snow.
 
Storm5 said:
12z gefs favors a cutter
there are plenty of members that bring wintry to the southeast but it's all in different ways. some have the low far enough south but most are backside situations as the low pulls away
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Click to expand...

Fear the JB...LOL!


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Storm5 said:
ground temps are WAY overplayed . we hear it every year yet we see winter weather all the time with prior weeks leading up to it in the 60s . Yawn

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No joke one of the dumbest phrases that mets barf out of there mouth all the time.
 
Majority of GEFS members (from member mslp, crap maps) are over land. For my SC friends, sorry.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Just to throw my two cents in about winter weather in south, if you're south of Tennessee/North Carolina, there is a window but it's VERY short. The window is January-mid February, about 6 weeks.

Now it doesn't mean winter weather won't happen before and after then, but it's rarer than January-mid February, and the best events tend to happen in a short stretch in February.

Back on this time period we want to try to reel in:

If there were cold air in place, the track that the CMC shows would be good for Tennessee/North Carolina.

There isn't cold air in place to start though.
Click to expand...
I've lived here in far north Ala all my life. We've had some good winter storms in late Feb and even into March. Had a great 2 inch sleet storm in March not too long ago.
 
Meh, the 12z run did okay with the time period I'm keeping an eye on. It didn't have the storm as I was expecting.

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