Thanks for the feedback! I think wrt solar minimum, if we are able to observe another easterly QBO/weak-moderate CP NINO combo in concert w/ this solar background, then it's feasible we could see at least 1 or 2 winters with exceptional high latitude blocking over the next several years, in fact this is the most conducive ENSO/QBO/Solar configuration for blocking. In a nutshell the general physical reasoning for this has to do w/ low solar activity allowing for accumulation of ozone in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino enhancing transport (& destruction) into the mid-high latitudes, and easterly QBO focusing RW activity in the winter hemisphere and onto the polar vortex. Granted, the recent slowing of the north Atlantic branch of the thermohaline circulation (via melting from adjacent Greenland ice sheet and internal naturally-induced inertia built into the AMO) may act to thwart this unusually favorable bgd forcing... Wrt, cooler weather for the SE US during the spring, I've noticed that the -ENSO composites as well as extrapolation of the early winter analogs are suggesting a relative break down of this mild pattern over the spring, but it's uncertain whether we will go BN for once and/or this is actually still a legitimate possibility as I will have to re-initialize my analog packages when time permits...
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