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Pattern February Discussion

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pcbjr said:
Gawd I hope this is a bad dream:
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Do you go by Packbacker on the other board!?
 
But seriously. What's up with the models showing the great setups having too warm temps?


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The Euro might be having its bias play a factor with that good look I saw on the Euro but I'm not sure why I saw that look I saw on the GFS last night after these storms that was too warm at the surface but looked good climatologically.
 
It's because the ecmwf op has a straight pacific flow for most of us


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Cold air seems a little a little further south so far on GFS. Let's see what the old 18z brings us today!
 
I don't think this one is going to cut because of the PV event I'm seeing in the Northeast/Canada. But who knows.
 
Looks like a good CAD setting up with that first system.

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Popcorn is back posting, you know there's a legit threat now! Bet the happy hour GFS has a big winter storm for NC!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Popcorn is back posting, you know there's a legit threat now! Bet the happy hour GFS has a big winter storm for NC!
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It's a thread the needle event for sure. The cold air needs to stick around and the precipitation needs to be a little faster. Definitely a better run than 12z though.
 
Lol, looks like it's going to cut. I'm not feeling it with that first system for winter wx. I'm really bumped up about the 10th-13th.

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Looks like there is a tendency to flatten it, weaken the wave on this run. Maybe we will see a slower solution over time as the GFS tends to be too quick.

That 1050+ high moving across could help make a big Winter event for a chunk of the SE if it can slow.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Lol, looks like it's going to cut. I'm not feeling it with that first system for winter wx. I'm really bumped up about the 10th-13th.

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It doesn't really cut. The system never digs enough to get to the gulf and be a Miller A. It moves due east and gets strung out before reforming up the coast. If the timing was a bit faster and the system was at least 50 miles further south, there would be a nice overrunning southern slider event. Still time...
 
Oddly that 1050+ high dropping in weakens to 1029 by 6 hours. That is, well, odd.
 
packfan98 said:
It's a thread the needle event for sure. The cold air needs to stick around and the precipitation needs to be a little faster. Definitely a better run than 12z though.
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The high is over Bermuda when the precip starts, this just ain't looking like a big threat, as modeled on GFS
 
Actually the trend has been to push both streams through faster and faster.
 
Shawn said:
Looks like there is a tendency to flatten it, weaken the wave on this run. Maybe we will see a slower solution over time as the GFS tends to be too quick.

That 1050+ high moving across could help make a big Winter event for a chunk of the SE if it can slow.
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That's funny, I was thinking it could speed up and give us some nice overrunning instead of a big system.
 
This run is setting up for a storm possibly towards Wed-Thur that week.. kinda like what the 12z ecmwf hinted (strong high retrograding into the area with a rocky low forming underneath). The GFS has been insanely inconsistent though... the models are all having a tough time. We may have a totally different solution tomorrow.
 
Here comes second system, let's see what it does
 
Nice looking setup setting up at 198... We could have a better winter storm during the 10th or so (maybe sooner).

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Classic banana high with a low 20mi south of the coast but still too warm. What is this lol
 
204 is setting up for at least a good upper south winter storm....unless the PV event in the northeast moves out quickly.
 
The hammer comes down on you NC weenies lol.. ATL metro sits on the r/s line... Great run for that system though.
 
It's not going to be a perfect look right now. It's just a rough "sketch" if you will. Definitely the look I want to see.

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