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Pattern February Discussion

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Oh lord, Winter ice threat returns even down to CAE this 00z GFS run.
 
0z Euro looks like the storm is going to cut with that first system. There's a HP sitting on the SC/NC boarder at 168... definitely a cutter look setting up. Just another possible solution that it could cut.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Storm5, what are the snowfall member snowfall maps looking like during the 10th-13th time period? Accu pro don't have the snowfall member maps. I bet there will be some good members in there.

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the majority of the snow on the gefs members falls before the 11th. the system after the 11th on the 00z gefs cuts in every which way . not many wintry solutions post the 11th

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Storm5 said:
the majority of the snow on the gefs members falls before the 11th. the system after the 11th on the 00z gefs cuts in every which way . not many wintry solutions post the 11th

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someone's up ealry
 
gfs_asnow_us_41.png
cut across TN, but not a cutter.
 
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Here's the 6z GEFS. The signal is for the I-77 corridor in the NC mountains and foothills. Seems like there is at least one storm every year that matches this profile. This could be the one for this year.
 
packfan98 said:
Thanks! I'd love to hear (or see) some more EPS analysis when you have time. Hopefully less cutters this run.
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Yeah reid said it best , they have a little of everything. thing is though it's very active and presents many ways to score from a miller A , to southern slider to a an apps runner . days 7-12 are popping on the eps .
3cf78a57dc37143355c444b9fb402d63.jpg


that's a really big increase on the mean. it is skewed by two MASSIVE members but there was a bug increase on the number of members showing something vs previous runs .

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Euro and GFS are not consistent at all with the specifics this far out, but the storm signal showing is definitely there. Reminds me of how the last storm played out with the models this far out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Euro and GFS are not consistent at all with the specifics this far out, but the storm signal showing is definitely there. Reminds me of how the last storm played out with the models this far out.
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Except only one run has had a massive storm so far. GFS looks like it wants to set up some icing, but will change at 12Z guaranteed. Euro is doing what it has done all along and is just throwing blind darts, hoping to get it right like it did last time. Maybe we should just spin a wheel to see what this one will be. lol
 
CUTTER! :(
 
so which model is it going to be that shows the southern slider solution this time? It's like all of the models are playing hot potato this time, not just one that's wavering.
 
The time period I'm watching is coming up. Please have our good storm GFS. 10th-13th.

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this is the strongest the Pacific has looked for a while on the GFS, I'm not feeling seeing anything close to favorable at all, of course I may be wrong.

Edit: I think the GFS is about to torch everywhere outside of the northern US. Hope I'm wrong but that's what the look suggests.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
this is the strongest the Pacific has looked for a while on the GFS, I'm not feeling seeing anything close to favorable at all, of course I may be wrong.

Edit: I think the GFS is about to torch everywhere outside of the northern US. Hope I'm wrong but that's what the look suggests.
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So I was wrong on the torch but that is one massive NS event. If it doesn't leave quickly I don't know that we're going to see anything and even if it does with how the trough is aligned it'll be more of an event for the Carolinas and Virginia.

And if it leaves quickly it'll probably be a rainer.
 
Ahhh, the GFS has our bigger storm but it's way too far north. It'll get there.

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I'll have to make a YouTube video on what I'll think to show you guys what I'm trying to say just in case some of you don't know what I've been saying over the past few days or so.

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Unrelated to the south but holy moly at the bomb that this run puts out in Canada, it has the low pressure down to 953. If this were to be the ground truth run, there's nothing to make this go south I think.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'll have to make a YouTube video on what I'll think to show you guys what I'm trying to say just in case some of you don't know what I've been saying over the past few days or so.

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I think we get it, the 10-13th is gonna be awesome! Just not on models yet
 
Of course it will change in the next run but I'm not impressed with the look at 228 in regards to a storm in the southeast. The flow is flat and there's nothing that will push that storm coming in from the pacific to the south. It never comes south and bombs out in Canada.
 
Come to think of it though I technically don't think that's the wave we're looking at. The one I think we're actually looking at is further south and west of Mexico but if the Pacific is extremely strong as depicted, it's going to just get crushed.
 
actually a south shift on the 12z gefs . with many members bringing wintry weather to the SE days 7-10 . a few are big deals , most are lighter backside stuff . implies two different systems

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I'm going to be interested in finding out what the Euro says at 12z, hopefully it doesn't also say a cutter for the deal around the super bowl.
 
I can't even get cold enough air for snow to stick from a clipper this winter. Expectations for accumulating snow have been downgraded here due to warmer then forecasted temps. I had really heavy snow falling up until 10 minutes ago but now that the heavy precipitation has ended temps will warm and that's all she wrote. Oh well on to the next one as they say so often in the south.
 
Of course the models are having a hard time with timing with these storms. We may just end up getting two storms, one in the 10th-13th (or sooner or later) and maybe another one in the 15th-17th. It definitely has a stormy look.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Of course the models are having a hard time with timing with these storms. We may just end up getting two storms, one in the 10th-13th (or sooner or later) and maybe another one in the 15th-17th. It definitely has a stormy look.

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the gfs ensembles has two storms before the 10th. the eps has the same genera idea

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