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Pattern February Discussion

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A little good news, I hope ...

By early Feb and out 14 days - PNA looks to go positive and AO to go negative moving forwardo_O; NAO stays + :( but there is always a fly in the ointment
 
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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I just now looked at the 12z Euro EPS...the timing looks way better than 18z GFS OP. For now, I think there won't be much in the way of winter weather, for MS, AL and GA with that first system. For now, I still think northern, NE TN, parts of NC and far upstate SC (and maybe far NE GA) could start off with freezing rain/sleet changing to all rain.

Also, it appears that the first system will be a quick mover, exiting the SE region by the 6th if timing holds true from GFS OP. Euro EPS also agrees with the timing of 18z GFS with that first system.

The EPS has the second system dropping in the Plains by the 8th (much more realistic timing IMO). The EPS has the low over the east by 9th-10th.

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I don't think it's safe to discount the first system this far out.
 
I'm not feeling the first system outside of the upper south but I may end up being wrong, with it being near the super bowl I might be wrong and us in Georgia might be unlucky with an ice storm because of course we would.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm not feeling the first system outside of the upper south but I may end up being wrong, with it being near the super bowl I might be wrong and us in Georgia might be unlucky with an ice storm because of course we would.
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I really don't know with the first system yet, and am interested at best in the second one. The first one could adjust into a CAD event for some CAD areas, but the second one looks like it would likely go south, but cold air would be a problem here. We want it to lock in a location, not jump all around, since systems that are usually all around have unexpected tracks. However, how accurate have the models been anyway with winter weather lately? Let's just see where we go with this next, but at least we have something to track!
 
bouncycorn said:
I don't think it's safe to discount the first system this far out.
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That first system is now before hr 192, so the GFS has much a higher resolution. The latest CMC and GFS have decent model agreement, except for the CMC keeps the HP to the NE. But with track of low, there won't be much in the way of winter wx. The 12z Euro has a different solution with the moisture further south and a HP staying in the NE. With that look, there would be more winter weather with that solution.



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NorthGAWinterWx said:
That first system is now before hr 192, so the GFS has much a higher resolution. The latest CMC and GFS have decent model agreement, except for the CMC keeps the HP to the NE. But with track of low, there won't be much in the way of winter wx. The 12z Euro has a different solution with the moisture further south and a HP staying in the NE. With that look, there would be more winter weather with that solution.



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Remember, the early January system looked like crap 192 hrs out. We were concerned about a CAD event initially then it went poof and came back 5-6 days out. Still 7-8 days out now.


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I liked the setup that the 12z Euro was suggesting off what I could tell, not just for the super bowl weekend (its too bad with the strength of the Pacific).
 
I'm going to play some music tracks from Neil Young or maybe Willie Nelson while the 0z GFS rolls in tonight lol. Any song recommendations?

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On this date back in 1936, the 2nd snowstorm within a few days struck eastern and central NC, producing as much as 1 foot of snow in far southeastern NC, including Onslow and Carteret counties. This snowstorm is definitely one of the greatest I-20 centric hits in the last century or so, delivering over 6 inches of snow in a large swath from north-central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, central SC, and southeastern NC. A very weak area of low pressure formed in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late on January 29th, with light-moderate overrunning precipitation spreading across the southern plains and the deep south and gradually spreading eastward. The intensity/coverage of the overrunning precipitation increased over MS, AL, and GA as the area of low pressure gradually intensified over en route to crossing the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula on the 30th. This storm system remained well offshore of the Carolinas and relatively weak, with precipitation ending in the coastal carolinas and Virginia early on the 31st. Although a very robust antecedent arctic airmass was well entrenched east of the Rockies, the absence of a significant surface high anchored over the Great Lakes, Midwest, and/or northeastern US during this storm is a notable and rather unusual feature in this event that flies in the face of many canonical overrunning setups in the SE US.
1936013006.gif


January-26-27-1936-NC-Snowmap.png

January-29-31-1936-NC-Snowmap.png
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'm going to play some music tracks from Neil Young or maybe Willie Nelson while the 0z GFS rolls in tonight lol. Any song recommendations?

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Panteras version of " Cat scratch Fever" it's great! Almost better than uncle Ted!
Or the AC/DC classic "shot down in flames" featuring the late great Bon Scott! As that pertains to our storms
 
Webberweather53 said:
On this date back in 1936, the 2nd snowstorm within a few days struck eastern and central NC, producing as much as 1 foot of snow in far southeastern NC, including Onslow and Carteret counties. This snowstorm is definitely one of the greatest I-20 centric hits in the last century or so, delivering over 6 inches of snow in a large swath from north-central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, central SC, and southeastern NC. A very weak area of low pressure formed in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late on January 29th, with light-moderate overrunning precipitation spreading across the southern plains and the deep south and gradually spreading eastward. The intensity/coverage of the overrunning precipitation increased over MS, AL, and GA as the area of low pressure gradually intensified over en route to crossing the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula on the 30th. This storm system remained well offshore of the Carolinas and relatively weak, with precipitation ending in the coastal carolinas and Virginia early on the 31st. Although a very robust antecedent arctic airmass was well entrenched east of the Rockies, the absence of a significant surface high anchored over the Great Lakes, Midwest, and/or northeastern US during this storm is a notable and rather unusual feature in this event that flies in the face of many canonical overrunning setups in the SE US.
1936013006.gif


January-26-27-1936-NC-Snowmap.png

January-29-31-1936-NC-Snowmap.png
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Webb - Fabulous!
Phil
 
Nice job Webb, love these past storms, good to compare with current weather patterns and what to look for. That storm did have a nice PNA ridge and a robust 50/50 near Newfoundland, 2 features that usually help us to get a storm.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'm going to play some music tracks from Neil Young or maybe Willie Nelson while the 0z GFS rolls in tonight lol. Any song recommendations?

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this would be a great idea. let one member a week pick the song of the night for every 00z run and play it through the site

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Storm5 said:
this would be a great idea. let one member a week pick the song of the night for every 00z run and play it through the site

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I remember when Eastern was where we were and had alot of fun posting songs and videos Excellent idea, Big Frosty was always good at that too
 
Storm5 said:
this would be a great idea. let one member a week pick the song of the night for every 00z run and play it through the site

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Yeah, that came to my mind. There's just something about listening to some good tunes while looking at model runs as they come in. Make a playlist and let it play automatically while the model data rolls in.

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