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Pattern February Discussion

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Arcc said:
You know the part where the Winter Warlock's heart melts and he changes. That is me after the past few weeks of warm weather.

Sorry but Spring is winning.

"Put one foot in front of the other and soon Winter is out the door. "
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I think I'm the only one enjoying this warm weather.
 
I see the gfs dropped the snow stripe imby but has a little sleet maybe some wet snow

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Shawn said:
It's not bad if we aren't getting a Winter storm. Pointless to have expensive heating bills without something in return.
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I agree. It will help save a lot of people money. Also, I'm kinda ready to start doing yard work. I haven't cranked up the lawn mower since September because things got so dry last fall that the grass was dead by the end of September.
 
Golferwhotries said:
SD, is the ao and nao forecasted to go negative on gefs and eps due to mjo in phase 8 later or is it both that and PV split potential?
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You could make a chicken/egg argument here but it seems like the pv displacement did the dirty work and the EPO/Siberia ridge are finishing this process

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The GFS looks more like a early spring pattern than anything. The pacific jet flexes its muscles through most of the rest of the run after 2/5.
 
Man, I got to say I'm a little disappointed with how things are going with winter. I'm always hoping we will see a change and have something to follow. I'm giving all I can to keep hope alive, but it's hard as of now.
 
I'm not worried with these wild op swings . ensembles are much colder vs op run. with the mjo cranking into p8 and the AO headed negative the ops are going to continue to spit out crazy long range solutions . I'm encouraged where the pattern is headed

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accu35 said:
GFS has nothing to offer except, disappointment.
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One big factor is that after the -AO pattern gets established within a few days and lasts til the start of week #2, the 18Z GFS then ends the -AO pattern as it goes forward in week #2 with lower than normal heights over much of the Arctic vs the 0Z GEFS (which is used to do the daily AO prediction), which keeps 500 mb heights higher than normal over much of the Arctic through day 16. As you may recall, I mentioned earlier that operational runs were liable to vary more than normal from run to run in week 2 based on the big disagreements of the individual GEFS members as regards its AO predictions. 0Z GEFS members' AO predictions varied at day 10 from +2.5 to -4.0!! No, that's not a typo.

So, going forward into mid-Feb, especially considering the MJO's projected move to phase 8, I think the AO will be extra crucial for mid Feb in the SE US. The GEFS does have a bias of ~-1.0 for the AO at day 14. Hopefully, this doesn't mean that today's GEFS day 14 AO prediction of -1.0 is going to verify way too negative. We'll see.

Edit: What storm5 said. I saw that after I posted.
 
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OP models are still all over the place. 12z Euro OP has that cutter coming about further south. 18z GFS has it coming down from Canada. 18z GFS has the second system coming in over the Pacific NW at 138 but it catches up with the first low. I don't see how that's possible with different air flow after that first system. NW winds coming down from after the first system should not allow that other system to cut or catch up with the first low so quickly.

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I'm so confused, scared, optimistic, angry, tired, hopeful and energized by all these possible solutions. Did I leave anything out?
 
Storm5 said:
18z gefs is far more entertaining days 7-10 vs the gfs op

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It is after this period that I'm not crazy about on the 18Z GEFS mean as it has over the North Pole heights fall to a little below normal by the end of week 2 vs the continued slightly above normal hts on the 00Z GEFS, which had helped keep its mean AO prediction down at -1.0 as of day 14. If tonight's 0Z GEFS is similar, I fear that tomorrow's AO forecast for day 14 will not be as negative as the -1 of this morning.
 
Storm5 said:
18z gefs is far more entertaining days 7-10 vs the gfs op

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Oh good, it's about time some model is starting to make since.

Models got me like
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Go out to dinner with some folks to do this planning thing on a project, eat good sushi, have a couple Japanese beers, get back, and we're still doom and gloom. Trying here to find a positive in all of this should-still-be-winter routine we're in (much less - what winter have we been in, frankly?), and well ... nothing jumps out except that high temps here, despite the "torch", never surpass 75º out to 384 on the 18Z. Guess it's good to have something positive to end a day on ... FWIW (though I'm still betting on a miracle of sorts!).
Enough pontificating ....
 
accu35 said:
So when are you expecting these changes to occur, giving how the GEFS looks better vrs Op run day7/10 on 18z?
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Hard to say for sure, the model may show something more realistic 5 days before the time frame, or at the last minute.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Here are my thoughts on the 18z GFS and what may occur.

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Thanks for the video. Very good discussion!

I've been forecasting for some time, not a long time though. Most of my knowledge,however, comes from research and studies of historical systems than experience. But I do caution whenever a forecaster says that x "should" happen. I'm sure you have more experience than myself in winter forecasting. But Models are based on physics, so anything it shows is physically able to happen. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate more on why you think that the low should be held back and separated more.

Also, what about that low that gets completely suppressed under the high out west? Do y'all think anything could come of that?


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Somebody just got NAM'd, I think!?
 
bouncycorn said:
Thanks for the video. Very good discussion!

I've been forecasting for some time, not a long time though. Most of my knowledge,however, comes from research and studies of historical systems than experience. But I do caution whenever a forecaster says that x "should" happen. I'm sure you have more experience than myself in winter forecasting. But Models are based on physics, so anything it shows is physically able to happen. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate more on why you think that the low should be held back and separated more.

Also, what about that low that gets completely suppressed under the high out west? Do y'all think anything could come of that?


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Yeah, I should cut back on saying that "it should happen" lol cause nothing is a guarantee in meteorology. The low that gets suppressed would be held back if that second system gets held back.

I think the second system may get held back because of the NW air flow behind the first system. I'm thinking that Arctic HP that I showed in the video will come down after the passage of the first system, helping to push that second system further south.

In my video, I said that the cold air start settling in here but it won't happen right away since the cold air lags behind the front. We could see that second system come in about the same time as the cold air does setting up the winter storm.

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Dear Lord, I pray for Oz GFS tonight, along with my weather weenies who are around there computers tonight
 
Just looked at the 12z EPS, that second system does get held back but it's a late bloomer, blooming over SW Atlantic with some spotty light precip over AL, GA and the Carolina's.

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