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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Yep.. two distinct systems... And the initial one should start digging strongly soon, a really powerful jetstream in it's entrance region.
 
I don't think the first system even wraps up this time..less confluence?
 
The low pressure of the cutter is further south and east, this means that our winter storm maybe further south than the 18z.

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Yep and the initial low closes off at 132 (much later than what the 12z and 18z runs showed).. I don't want a new trend of flattening out the first wave though, that'd be no good.
 
Good look so far, our possible winter storm is slipping underneath the Arctic HP at 138.

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Storm5 said:
our wrapped up low in the NE is NE of its 18z position , that's not gonna help anything

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Regardless of that small difference, the HP is more spread out and forces the low south. About to interact in the gulf at 159hr
 
The LP is further south than it's 18z run at 150...good news!

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Oh my lord here it comes. This is the big dog, NGAWWX, for us at least!
 
The change in low positioning from the first one seems marginal and if the high pressure could get in front it might help.
 
IDK how far y'alls sources are, but @171hrs it looks like NGA gets some juicy snowfall. IDK about ptype but 850's below 0c
 
bouncycorn said:
IDK how far y'alls sources are, but @171hrs it looks like NGA gets some juicy snowfall. IDK about ptype but 850's below 0c
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Stormvista is ugly. :( Fast though. Unless you're on instantweathermaps
 
System is south and east on this run. Central NC and some SC folks may get in on the action too!
 
Tropical tidbits has type as heavy rain for most of NGA with 850s well below 0c but surface temps in the mid 30s.
 
40+ in CAE. Mmm. Nobody looks to be freezing outside the mountains & TN. Maybe an area of NE GA is close though.
 
Looking good there at 168...we'll see what happens when the low gets off the coast.

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The 850s are good but 2M temps are ugly, climo wise this is a good setup buuuuuuttttt....the blocking that we're relying on is a former cutter instead of an actual cold setup. This will be another good run for TN/NC, and after the low winds up, maybe SC too.
 
ATLwxfan said:
That will absolutely verify. LOL


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Yep.. lol.

Anyways, is this like 5 runs showing a favorable setup for a snow event across the board? I think I will consider 5 consistent runs of GFS this year in this range even if it has fierce opposition.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The 850s are good but 2M temps are ugly, climo wise this is a good setup buuuuuuttttt....the blocking that we're relying on is a cutter instead of an actual cold setup. This will be another good run for TN/NC, and after the low winds up, maybe SC too.
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The blocking is the high, which is very strong btw. In fact, it almost suppressed the surface energy at one point as they were moving south through the plains.
 
East GA, most if not all of SC, and huge chunk of NC get a snow hit on the back side.
 
dsaur said:
Need it in the gulf crossing below the pan handle, or Ga is out of play. There is time for it to get right :) T
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There is time for sliding south but I like this track given the setup. I don't think we'll get a strong low in this situation and you'd need a strong low if you're relying on precip from a low south of the FL Panhandle. With such a strong HP and weak low, the track given by the 00z GFS is almost optimum.
 
Hey, Larry, if you are up...where did they do the official readings in 1880? And who took them? How about in Sav? Is there year to year continuity in both places? Once they started they never missed a year? Thanks, T
 
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