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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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lol 12z euro ensembles through day 10
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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'd also like to see some amplification of the low. Those two HPs would help intensify the low if they we're closer to the low. Think of it has magnets, when you try to the stick the magnets together with the same polarity you can feel the force. That's the same concept between highs and lows.

I'd also like to see some support from the Euro. The 0z runs of the Euro does have the second system, it just comes across the SE states as a weak disturbance and intensifying over the Atlantic. I'd expect the 12z Euro runs to have an improvement with the second system.

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There is no support for what the 12z GFS showed today.


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The other models may not support what the GFS is showing right now, we're still 7-8 days away. The GFS has been improving with that second system since 0z last night.

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0492cd90e9b88abaec9780da40e79f31.jpg


Anyone that focuses on model outputs of snowfall and temperatures in the long range have an unbalanced forecast. Look at trends. General upper air pattern. The setup.

What we have is a secondary upper low/disturbance interacting with frontogenesis from the initial low. That's a volatile setup that will not be handled well by models.


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bouncycorn said:
0492cd90e9b88abaec9780da40e79f31.jpg


Anyone that focuses on model outputs of snowfall and temperatures in the long range have an unbalanced forecast. Look at trends. General upper air pattern. The setup.

What we have is a secondary upper low/disturbance interacting with frontogenesis from the initial low. That's a volatile setup that will not be handled well by models.


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no one is looking at temps and snowfall on a hypothetical system . I was trying to find any support on the eps for a second system period and there isn't any . Like I said earlier does that mean there won't be a storm ?? No , of course the gfs could be leading the way . But right now it's all alone . I have seen plenty of times where ensembles were late to the party. in fact the storm earlier this month the eps didn't catch on till around day 5 . But for now we have this

12z eps ......
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Storm5 said:
no one is looking at temps and snowfall on a hypothetical system . I was trying to find any support on the eps for a second system period and there isn't any . Like I said earlier does that mean there won't be a storm ?? No , of course the gfs could be leading the way . But right now it's all alone . I have see plenty of times where ensembles were late to the party. in fact the storm earlier this month the eps didn't catch on till around day 5 . But for now we have this

12z eps ......
bee851bc24391b8079b299160ce5acaa.jpg

c2cff6fedfb4b45989d6476621f1358b.jpg

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Of course. And using ensembles can help balance a forecast a bit. I respect you and know you don't live and die based on what snowfall and QPF charts show at this point.

That was directed for those that may believe the GFS snowfall totals for face value or individuals saying it won't do anything based on snowfall maps


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bouncycorn said:
0492cd90e9b88abaec9780da40e79f31.jpg


Anyone that focuses on model outputs of snowfall and temperatures in the long range have an unbalanced forecast. Look at trends. General upper air pattern. The setup.

What we have is a secondary upper low/disturbance interacting with frontogenesis from the initial low. That's a volatile setup that will not be handled well by models.


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Jenga!

That's actually a great pictorial representation.


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bouncycorn said:
Of course. And using ensembles can help balance a forecast a bit. I respect you and know you don't live and die based on what snowfall and QPF charts show at this point.

That was directed for those that may believe the GFS snowfall totals for face value or individuals saying it won't do anything based on snowfall maps


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to your point about the models not handling the setup well. that may very well be the case here and that's a good point . it's a tricky setup no doubt. how do you feel about it

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So I'm guessing the Euro shows one of this:

A. There is two systems, but they phase into one massive cutter bomb (even more massive than what is being depicted).
B. Only one system, and its a massive cutter.

That's not good and honestly with how massive the first system is, a phase if there is two systems seems like it'd be pretty possible. I mean, would there be something to hold the energy back from just fusing?

HOWEVER, its plenty possible if there is two systems involved with this, that the models will struggle for a while.
 
Storm5 said:
to your point about the models not handling the setup well. that may very well be the case here and that's a good point . it's a tricky setup no doubt. how do you feel about it

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I think that a surface low does form near Louisiana. It'll be pretty weak but I think it'll cut through South Georgia and move through the Carolinas.

But again, it's like throwing a dart in the night here. We just gotta really watch trends and see what becomes more favorable over time. Like many say, I would hate to see an optimum setup this far out. In a way, the *current* look is ultra suppression so the upper disturbance doesn't even interact in the gulf. Suppression tends to happen at this range and scale back. The runs of the GFS and few GEFS runs are all similar in that they show less suppression southwest of our board area.


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NorthGAWinterWx said:
The other models may not support what the GFS is showing right now, we're still 7-8 days away. The GFS has been improving with that second system since 0z last night.

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By no means am I saying this system won't happen. I'm well aware of this type of setup being difficult to handle...I'm hoping against all odds that the GFS is onto something.


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The happy hour run of GFS looks somewhat similar to 12z..Continues some of the trends from the pacific but some of the PNA energy is flatter like on 06z run. Not many differences as of now, though. @hr 87
 
whatalife said:
By no means am I saying this system won't happen. I'm well aware of this type of setup being difficult to handle...I'm hoping against all odds that the GFS is onto something.


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Yeah nothing is in the favor of the SE for winter storms with these setups and no model agreements but it's fun to look for fantasy storms and with proper expectations be glad to accept it's all a ruse most likely in the end.
 
The Arctic HP at 114...is in the same spot as the 12z run.

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Just looking 18z may be slight improvement from 12z for AL/GA, as long as lows pops and follows suit think the cold will be a little better
 
Their's our winter storm at 144 getting ready to drop down into the Plains.

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