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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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It will be colder than what the model is showing. A 1037mb Arctic HP NW of the low with a cold NE wind. Need to check temps up in the NE I'm sure it will be freezing cold up there.

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Yeah so for like ATL and stuff.. even parts of Bama, I am willing to bet there is some snow involved. Just 6 hour frames aren't too telling. As the low gets "going" or whatever and the colder air scoots in, places like Eastern GA, SC, NC get a good event. In SC, even Charleston sees snow on this run if the ptype maps are to be believed.
 
haha

The east GA warm nose works its magic again. Also kind of hard to believe that the 850s are as good as they are with bad surface temps.

Still, a great run for TN/NC/SC. So I think the split wave idea might be true but we're going to be working out the details over the next week. With the way the winter has been, this is likely the best bet, slipping a system in after a cutter.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
It will be colder than what the model is showing. A 1037mb Arctic HP NE of the low with a cold NE wind. Need to check temps up in the NE I'm sure it will be freezing cold up there.

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Lacking good snowpack up there. I like the idea of at least a 6-8 inch event + where the HP is to help.
 
Remember folks, we are still like 7 days out. Setup + Trends. Let's not get wrapped up in ptype of a 7 day outlier GFS run.

The setup and trends look very favorable. In fact, this model progression reminds me of Jan 2011.
 
bouncycorn said:
There is time for sliding south but I like this track given the setup. I don't think we'll get a strong low in this situation and you'd need a strong low if you're relying on precip from a low south of the FL Panhandle. With such a strong HP and weak low, the track given by the 00z GFS is almost optimum.
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Actually a weaker system often give us frozen precip. Too strong and it's too hot. I'd like to see a nice weak system coming thru the gulf with that high over head, but another coming down behind it to reinforce the cold. The cold is nearly always borderline around here, and this warm winter leave us needing some good cold, and I don't think one high will do it, lol. T
 
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Well all at this point you have to be happy that this storm keeps showing up. Way way to early to get excited just yet. If the euro picks up on it tonight it will definitely get my attention.
 
gfs_asnow_us_34.png
much better with the low placement, need the cold to push more. Other than that this has great potential
 
bouncycorn said:
Remember folks, we are still like 7 days out. Setup + Trends. Let's not get wrapped up in ptype of a 7 day outlier GFS run.

The setup and trends look very favorable. In fact, this model progression reminds me of Jan 2011.
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I agree, it's still too early to really tell on p-types. I'm still at that stage of looking for trends of placement of HP and track of low.

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This so dangerous to say and could the GFS truly be onto something...I'm going to ride w/it b/c after the last half a month it can't get an worse. SMH!


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And after this storm is out in the sea, it's getting pushed south by that big system in Canada hahahahahaha.
 
What I notice on this run is that a LP hangs around for a good bit over there off the coast at 192+. If that is closer to the coast, we will see non stop snow. I've got to make a video.

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Lets not forget our TN friends. They aren't in a bad spot with this deal. When we wish the low South, it steals their precip.

Personally here in CAE, I'm selfish. I just want the low to travel across North Central FL and have the high over head. ;/ I like to see the cold air in place first of course.

Too much to go wrong here still. The GFS might be onto something but as a model that is more progressive might not be showing the first wave having more influence on the secondary because of the progressive bias.

CMC is 4dVar and Euro aren't wanting to bite and I will STILL put my trust in the EPS/CMC over the GFS for now.

I want to see a major uptick on the GEFS mean/members.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
What I notice on this run is that a LP hangs around for a good bit over there off the coast at 192+. If that is closer to the coast, we will see non stop snow. I've got to make a video.

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A big system in Canada is actually pushing it south a bit when it's out in the sea.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
What I notice on this run is that a LP hangs around for a good bit over there off the coast at 192+. If that is closer to the coast, we will see non stop snow. I've got to make a video.

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please do lol
 
If the Euro sides with the GFS tonight (which I highly doubt) then business is gonna pick up on this board.

Even the GEFS agreeing with OP would raise some eyebrows
 
Yeah, I don't get why that low pushes off the coast a good ways, then retrogrades, and sits and spins all wound up :) T
 
The cmc now shows two systems early but they interact later and the initial one doesn't really block much.


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Im just learning alot from being on here! I feel like the overwhelming warmth from last 2 winters (record warmth) are a sign that times are a changing down here!! Am i wrong are is this a pattern we will have to get use to?!
 
Ensemble forecasting is where it's at. Living and dying by these OP runs is silly. Lets see if the GEFS improves versus the last two runs. If so (if the mean really ticks up with various southern low solutions), I can see the GFS being right getting that lead wave separated out in front. If not much support from it's own ensembles, well poop.
 
Shawn said:
Ensemble forecasting is where it's at. Living and dying by these OP runs is silly. Lets see if the GEFS improves versus the last two runs. If so (if the mean really ticks up with various southern low solutions), I can see the GFS being right getting that lead wave separated out in front. If not much support from it's own ensembles, well poop.
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I'm sure they'll be a Debbie Downer.


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dsaur said:
Hey, Larry, if you are up...where did they do the official readings in 1880? And who took them? How about in Sav? Is there year to year continuity in both places? Once they started they never missed a year? Thanks, T
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Hey Tony,
1) The US Weather Bureau office in Atlanta handled the readings starting in 1878. The station was then downtown at the Kimball House at Pryor and Decatur Streets. The Airport Station became the official ATL station in 1934. No, they never missed a year and they missed very few days, if any, due to bad weather.

2) SAV Weather Bureau records started in 1874. They also eventually transitioned from the city to its airport. There's year to year continuity here as well as in most major US cities.

3) The US Weather Bureau started in 1870.
 
if anything the little gefs the op had earlier today shifted north this run

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Storm5 said:
if anything the little gefs the op had earlier today shifted north this run

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Yeah it's funny, the OP went south again at oz lol. Still a good ways out, hopefully something will happen but who knows
 
accu35 said:
Yeah it's funny, the OP went south again at oz lol. Still a good ways out, hopefully something will happen but who knows
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Lets not forget how far South the GFS was with the last major threat. I think we'll end up with a KY track at the furthest when all is said. The lead wave will likely influence the secondary more and shear/tear it up and force it to follow in whatever form it decides to be.
 
Here is the junk the 00z GEFS put out:
itsjunk.png
 
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