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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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I'd also like to see some amplification of the low. Those two HPs would help intensify the low if they we're closer to the low. Think of it has magnets, when you try to the stick the magnets together with the same polarity you can feel the force. That's the same concept between highs and lows.

I'd also like to see some support from the Euro. The 0z runs of the Euro does have the second system, it just comes across the SE states as a weak disturbance and intensifying over the Atlantic. I'd expect the 12z Euro runs to have an improvement with the second system.

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bouncycorn said:
GEFS not great. The ecmwf has led the charge with this pattern though. The dr


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gefs not great, but better than previous runs. If GFS Op continues to show up, I believe we may see an increase in the ENS.
 
This may be the first trend on the GFS op that we've seen if it continues through 00z.


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SD said:
Looks like a dusting along the I40 corridor. I didnt look at 850s or surface temps just the total snowfall map
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Thanks. I don't think it was showing much on earlier runs. If I see a flake, it's a win!
 
if this hasn't been posted...heck yeah!
16443315_1576819559012363_985341726_n.png
 
May be speaking to soon but the Dr looks like it's getting ready to slap the GFS in the face for it 12z run...LOL!


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It is pretty simple IMO (based on history) for the best chance at a widespread event: the sfc low crossing north FL (to give the well inland/upper south a halfway decent chance) or central FL (to also give deeper south a decent chance). The GEFS members agree.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'd also like to see some amplification of the low. Those two HPs would help intensify the low if they we're closer to the low. Think of it has magnets, when you try to the stick the magnets together with the same polarity you can feel the force. That's the same concept between highs and lows.

I'd also like to see some support from the Euro. The 0z runs of the Euro does have the second system, it just comes across the SE states as a weak disturbance and intensifying over the Atlantic. I'd expect the 12z Euro runs to have an improvement with the second system.

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No. Just no.

On the system, meh. You have the cold biased GFS by itself showing a keyhole system with the Bermuda high pumping at 180hrs. What could go wrong.
 
So for those wanting winter weather you have the gfs and 4/5 gefs members vs the cmc,euro ,euro ensembles ........

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