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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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DaculaWeather said:
The operational's don't jive with the teleconnections at the moment.
Right now the GFS and Euro are almost identical in what they depict for the main teleconnections. As of today, the AO and NAO go negative around the 5th, the EPO stays negative through the 10th, the WPO stays negative. the only negative (no pun intended... ok... maybe) is the PNA which remains negative. Looking at past history, it appears a combination of those would indicate a colder than normal pattern around next weekend... or at least until everything changes next model run. :) Here are how those teleconnections look in February.
PNA


EPO


WPO


AO


NAO

http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/
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Yep and combine that with MJO and SSWE and they all look cold.

This is why models will continue to be super variant. They tend to continue patterns and don't want to change large scale stuff.


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bouncycorn said:
Why are you looking at confluence? What does that impact?

I'm just curious. I've not really been using confluence at all.


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confluence helps keep everything pressed south and west the longer that hangs on the better chance of a 12z like solution.

if the low gets way out in front of the high dropping into the plains we become dependent on the NE confluence to help keep it south. this run it was weaker and moved NE quicker and the end result was a further north low track

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Stormlover said:
not much better...it's just about 50 miles difference..the overall look is very close...parts of middle Tenn get buried on this one...I am very happy right now, I think we are on to something one week out
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your right, GFS may be on something that other models may follow eventually. Hopefully the low will be little more south
 
Another good run from this run. I'd like to see that low further south on this run but it will. The model will adjust it's self in the coming days. Even the LP of the cutter was different than it's 12z run.

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Off topic for a sec - I tossed a bunch of general links into the Weather Links thread - hope someone finds one or two of them useful (at least they're free!)
 
I'm in the bullseye 7 days out. What could go wrong? If this pans out it will save the winter up here and give me 3 good ones in a row. Problem is it's 7 days away and not much support from other models yet. Either way hopefully these good trends continue and we have something to track for a while.

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One thing I know for sure is we're one run away from me feeling that the GFS is on to something with the idea of there being two different waves. With the way the last few nights have gone though, watch that second wave go poof in the 0z run or end up phasing into a monster.

(or even better, turn into something that will really make me a weenie, but most of the time I've stayed much more mature than I was as a 13-14 year old on a different board and no I'm not meaning THAT board, a different board....oh those old days)

This doesn't necessarily mean a winter storm if the second wave idea is true though, but it means it's more possible.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
One thing I know for sure is we're one run away from me feeling that the GFS is on to something with the idea of there being two different waves. With the way the last few nights have gone though, watch that second wave go poof in the 0z run or end up phasing into a monster.

(or even better, turn into something that will really make me a weenie, but most of the time I've stayed much more mature than I was as a 13-14 year old on a different board and no I'm not meaning THAT board, a different board....oh those old days)

This doesn't necessarily mean a winter storm if the second wave idea is true though, but it means it's more possible.
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Man I feel old. When I was 14 in 1993 the internet Was a few years away I believe.
 
Those two HPs at 120 will help the separation between the two system's. You can see the second system off shore. Nice separation between the two system's.

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FWIW, the new weeklies look quite juicy...


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The 18z GEFS says "what secondary low?"


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Just not enough support on it's own ensembles for me to care now.
 
The Goofus is either genius or on crack. No support from any other model and even the ensembles.
 
I can say that the GFS is good at "detecting" other things than other models, but not all the time.

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GFS did a pretty good job with the general idea of the last storm. It was a bit too far south with the good stuff, but it's just hard to get the specifics right here.
 
Brick Tamland said:
GFS did a pretty good job with the general idea of the last storm. It was a bit too far south with the good stuff, but it's just hard to get the specifics right here.
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The GFS did especially well in long range. At day 7, it was too far north. Day 5 is when it started showing big dogs.


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olhausen said:
Yes but haven't the ensembles showed many good members a few times this year and we ended up with jack. Maybe this is the one that the gfs OP will be right on and everything else is wrong?
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GFS definitely has better computing power and resolution than the ens members. Plus the op did better at long range for last storm.


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Yeah, seems the pattern is for it to start too far north, go south, and then end up more NW somewhere in between.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, seems the pattern is for it to start too far north, go south, and then end up more NW somewhere in between.
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Agree with that, and who knows if this will go the way of the last storm, look terrible way out and look great closer. However, we need multiple data cycles of GFS runs to tell if we will even have a storm at all. We so far have one, so let's hope the next one has our storm, but even better.
 
Honestly what I'll be looking for still on the 0z GFS is for there to actually be a second wave. The details can be worked out as long as there is a second wave. The second wave behind a cutter solution is a pretty good solution to no blocking, details will just have to be ironed out.
 
SD said:
Oh look another special. You going to be around for the live show

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It's only a special if it occurs haha.... not sure I'll try to been a long day (at Wake Med all day with my parents)

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