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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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No way Feb torches with this look on the GFS ensemble mean. Looks like we will have another chance mid month, +PNA, PV anchored to the NE with cold in the east and blocking trying to form over Greenland, split flow.
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Jon said:
No way Feb torches with this look on the GFS ensemble mean. Looks like we will have another chance mid month, +PNA, PV anchored to the NE with cold in the east and blocking trying to form over Greenland, split flow.
IMG_6282.png
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Not a bad look...


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ForsythSnow said:
For once, the GFS is colder than the CMC, and Florida Freezes on the 6Z in the northern part.
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Don't really matter at this pt. The storm we were looking at on the GFS as gone the way of the Euro. I have my doubts we'll see it again...Hope I'm wrong...


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GaWx said:
I see that one member of the 0Z GEFS develops just offshore from hour 192 to hour 210 into a pretty strong storm (992 mb) while moving very slowly and precip. as a result backs in close to the SE coast before then fully moving out to sea. I suppose this is something to watch out for. Any opinions on this?
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Similar to the one member in the 0Z GEFS as described above, there is one member doing funny stuff on the 06 GEFS with a strong development just offshore along with slow movement. I know Mack will say I'm grasping since this is again just one member of 20 doing this unusual thing. I'm not predicting it will happen. I'm admittedly just describing what it shows to make this stage of the thread halfway interesting. The chances of it being right are very low and will continue that way unless more GEFS members start showing this on subsequent runs. One thing that sort of supports this wacky member is the solidly -AO being forecasted then.

By the way it is great to see Jon, a top quality pattern poster, posting here!
 
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The EPS was really sucking me in around D10-11 then it backed off what could have been a really good look by D15, meh still like where we are headed. As for next weekend good luck sorting that mess out, I really don't think that look is going to produce, its too fast and there is too much going on in the NE but I have been wrong before
 
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