• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion Part II

Status
Not open for further replies.
I see that one member of the 0Z GEFS develops just offshore from hour 192 to hour 210 into a pretty strong storm (992 mb) while moving very slowly and precip. as a result backs in close to the SE coast before then fully moving out to sea. I suppose this is something to watch out for. Any opinions on this?
 
Shawn said:
Here is the junk the 00z GEFS put out:
itsjunk.png
Click to expand...
WOW,lol. All we can ask for is luck from here on out
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
So either a lot of models are wrong or the GFS has been wrong for five straight runs.
Click to expand...

I'll go with the GFS being wrong for "5 runs" that I keep hearing over other guidance. It's own ensembles don't even agree with it for the most part.
 
Even the GFS ensemble has the low stalling out or moving very slowly.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Wow, just an absolutely textbook late winter strong-super NINO 500mb pattern on both the GEFS/EPS suites by week 2. Definitely makes sense given the superposition of an anomalous mid-latitude RWT excited by the MJO w/ favorable intrinsic extratropical variability (i.e. canonical retrogression of northeast Pacific/Alaska ridge being immediately followed by a deep Alaskan/Aleutian vortex.) The Pacific jet is liable to be on steroids, seeing numbers as high as 200-205 knots in the core of the jet after next week... Yea, that's pretty nuts...

eps_z500a_nh_61.png
gefs_z500a_nh_65.png
Qa76J9GjLU.png

eps_uv200_c_nh_43.png
 
Mid-late winter strong-super NINOs are notorious for promulgating all or nothing wrt wintry weather in the eastern US, especially over the mid-atlantic... Likely applicable in this case too
 
Webberweather53 said:
Mid-late winter strong-super NINOs are notorious for promulgating all or nothing wrt wintry weather in the eastern US, especially over the mid-atlantic... Likely applicable in this case too
Click to expand...
I'm just a bit confused. When you say strong NINO are you talking about El Nino ?
 
Once again, it appears that the King will not have the SE storm. The amazing disagreement continues!
 
bouncycorn said:
Aannnndddddd.... it's gone


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Just gone for one run after 5. Going to have to watch the next several and if it disappears, maybe it will reappear a few days form now. As Brick said a bit back, either the GFS is a genius or is on crack. We will see what it is in a few days for sure.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top