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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Gfs continues it's hate of the 10mb pv
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Maybe better there's no storm! My TWC local forecast has a high in the 60s Friday and Saturday
 
GaWx said:
If we get the extremely rare +2 PNA, there'd be legit hope for around midmonth considering the -AO and MJO 8. Only 1 in 2,000 DJF days has had a +2 PNA (last one in 2/1983)!

I'm not giving up on 2/10 either. What I think is that there will be two opportunities, 2/10 and ~2/13-16. If 2/10 turns out be nothing, I have a feeling that midmonth is going to get mighty interesting. I think model consensus for midmonth is likely going to change and the much colder 0Z GFS for then may turn out to be the first hint of changes to come.
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Larry, great stuff! If we score a storm on any of the two dates you listed above, you will be my hero! I just see a lot of warm temps and t storms
 
This remains disconcerting - just as the NAO is finally progged to go negative, the EPO is progged to go fairly positive. Too much counterbalance, at least theoretically (although the PNA looks great).
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pcbjr said:
This remains disconcerting - just as the NAO is finally progged to go negative, the EPO is progged to go fairly positive. Too much counterbalance, at least theoretically (although the PNA looks great).
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And IF the EPO is the drive this winter well....


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ForsythSnow said:
Lol, it's not likely. I think things look about the same for chances of a storm as yesterday. 12Z should be the same solution or another one.
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I agree. I do know that when we get a big storm, the models usually have a better handle on the system much earlier. Huge red flag that we are going to strikeout if there's only an occasional op run or a couple of ensemble members per day that shows anything.
 
Outside of a low sparking much further west the 6z GFS was meh. And after it sparked it just scooted OTS I think.
 
Looks like the second system is coming in much further south at hr 72 than past runs. We want to see it coming in further south.

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This *could* be an interesting run if things hold the way their looking right now.

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The low is in th right spot at 108...it looks better than past runs.

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Per prelim maps: It looks like due to upper trough hanging back further west that there will be more action with the 2/10 storm on the 12Z GFS but will it be cold enough?
 
So now the second low stays more defined outside of an early piece splitting out. I have a feeling this might be our first CMC solution on the GFS and those have been too warm.
 
Well, this run is back to improvement

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Let's see what the ensemble shows...this run looks identical to a past ensemble member I have seen.

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Its not organized but the GFS seems to be trying its darnedest to move back toward a previous solution we were seeing before it lost the storm. Instead of it being well OTS, its tried to organize a low on the southeast coast for the last two runs before it scoots away.
 
That was more interesting for 2/10. Now let's see whether or not the 12Z GFS gets more interesting during the possibly near record high +PNA being projected for the period centered on 2/14.
 
The CMC is in a completely different direction we don't want to see at all. It doesn't get cold after the cutter, and there is a wave two but it tries to cut and just stretches out and disappears.
 
Definitely better GFS run, and as far as the CMC, well, it's the crazy uncle we all know, so maybe it will fix itself. The real factors will be the GEFS and the 12Z Euro.
 
GaWx said:
That was more interesting for 2/10. Now let's see whether or not the 12Z GFS gets more interesting during the possibly near record high +PNA being projected for the period centered on 2/14.
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Not on this run but I maintain that there's still lots of potential and larger than normal uncertainty for the period centered on 2/14 due to the progged near record high for winter +PNA in combo with both the residual effects of the progged strong -AO for just prior to this period and the progged strong MJO phase 8 (along with taking into account the 2nd week in February having had the largest # of major winter storms in history of any week for many in the SE). Keep in mind that period is still some 10 or so days away.
 
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