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Wintry February 7-8 Winter storm

3km NAM was good this morning with moisture. Thunderstorms and hail. Maybe it’s not being too aggressive after all. May be right for Saturday
 
Snowflowxxl said:
3K NAM would be amazing. Gonna put on my clown shoes and ride it to glory.
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Might as well, we got nothin' to lose. We already lost. lmao I have more faith in this snow potential tomorrow than the snow flurries this morning. Looks like the bands of precip is setting up south of the ATL metro unless a couple more start developing north and west of us.
 
RGEM is really close for a lot of areas in the metro. 850s are fine throughout the event for areas north of I-20 on Saturday, but 925s are between 1-2 celcius. I'm more likely to believe the RGEM unfortunately. I can see areas where it's showing rain actually be mix or sleet with mostly snow in heavier bands of precip, but it's definitely not as cold as the NAM...probably more likely the NAM trends towards the RGEM than vice versa.

It really does feel like all winter we've struggled with the boundary/surface temps even when the mid levels are below freezing.
 
The only other short range model that comes close to the NAM is that WRF model that was posted in here last night.
 
National weather service GSP

A broad trough will remain over the eastern CONUS tonight, with
western mountain upslope moisture briefly diminishing. Anticipate a
return to below climo temperatures throughout today through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EST Friday: The next shortwave diving into the broad
eastern trough will cross the southern Appalachians on Saturday.
This should be a very quick hit of moisture and forcing, which
should greatly limit any snow accumulations. However, profiles could
well support brief, wet snow even east of the mountains Saturday
during the peak of the moist upglide. A brief shot of northwest flow
moisture will then occur behind the wave Saturday evening before
drying up overnight. Accumulations in the mountains look to be sub-
advisory, but this can revisited after the brief Friday snow shower
episode is over. Temps remain below climo.
 
Sitting in paulding county and got my little grapel/blizzard going I'll take it I guess
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The only other short range model that comes close to the NAM is that WRF model that was posted in here last night.
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Tack on the HRRR too at 6Z
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_32.png
 
Bsud said:
The upstate will likely see snow tomorrow, just not sure how limited the accumulations will be

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All I would want to see is flakes fall I wouldn’t care if it sticks or not but a light dusting would be nice
 
Clem282340 said:
All I would want to see is flakes fall I wouldn’t care if it sticks or not but a light dusting would be nice
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Well most of the models are on board now even the GFS, so Flakes look to fly for sure

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For us in central nc I don't think its completely impossible to think we get a snow flake tomorrow afternoon. That being said its more likely any radar returns we do see are rain or maybe sleet than snow
 
I think the upstate sees enough lift out of tomorrow system that they do well. I could see it putting down some heavy rates and some see a surprise inch out of it.

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My sister just said it was sleeting and that it then changed to snow in an area of the northern part of ATL (near Lenox Square). It was enough to keep her from driving momentarily and to call me out of concern. But now it has stopped. The temp is 36/7 now. The skies are partly cloudy with clouds at various levels.

Here’s her pic of the sleet that preceded the snow:

A04FEB85-179C-425C-AA1C-FD778139030C.jpeg
 
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LovingGulfLows said:
RGEM is really close for a lot of areas in the metro. 850s are fine throughout the event for areas north of I-20 on Saturday, but 925s are between 1-2 celcius. I'm more likely to believe the RGEM unfortunately. I can see areas where it's showing rain actually be mix or sleet with mostly snow in heavier bands of precip, but it's definitely not as cold as the NAM...probably more likely the NAM trends towards the RGEM than vice versa.

It really does feel like all winter we've struggled with the boundary/surface temps even when the mid levels are below freezing.
Click to expand...

rgem_asnow_us_42.png
 
Few thoughts on the upstate sc snow potential.

1. If we get a inch in upstate. It would completely save winter for me.

2. If this thing happens in daylight afternoon. It’s gonna be hard for it to stick.

3. Temps will still be very marginal. National weather service says a high of 45

So while I’m very optimistic I’m also skeptical. Because I don’t want to get my hopes up. But if a inch falls thats a advisory type event for the upstate!


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