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Pattern February 2024

Wild Weather Monger said:
Crazy I know, but I just quite bring myself to bury this one. Hoping for that tried and true last-minute NW trend and the modeling dampening that Baja S/W just a little too much.
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I was fixing to post this one lol. You go another frame or two it shows other members with little snow as well far south Al. Globles not showing this solution just yet but the gefs ens have been consistent with these little northern edge snow for the past few days now. Last adjustment will occur.
 
accu35 said:
I was fixing to post this one lol. You go another game or two it shows other members with little snow as well far south Al. Globles not showing this solution just yet but the gefs ens have been consistent with these little northern edge snow for the past few days now. Last adjustment will occur.
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Yep. I peeked at the soundings for MBY on Sunday AM. Definitely supportive of snow if the precip pushes just a little further north.
 
The MJO wave that models saw for a while, is basically dead, probably a reason why models look awful now. It’s losing influence and that was what was forecasted to drive the 2nd half of Feb/March. It was suppose to continue into the WHEM then the Indian Ocean. 8B56447A-ECF8-43D3-B320-F5A227478744.jpeg
But still why are we headed to a PR regime ? What’s the reasoning behind that ?
The MJO was suppressed in dec by the strong positive Indian Ocean dipole, and the pattern was just a reflection of a strong El Niño aka Pacific trough regime/poleward shifted overextended jet. This time around Pacific at d10 is just a weird looking retracted jet, but with split flow out over the open pacific and a strong subtropical jet, I don’t get that reaction still from a subseasonal standpoint. We have a lot left to learn about wx
 
SD said:
Amazeballs agreementView attachment 146537View attachment 146538View attachment 146539

This later in March or april freeze is going to be not good
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I’d like to have a spring for once, Highs in low 60s / Lows 40-45 until at least Easter before it gets into the 80s . If we can hold that off Till May I might survive, but I absolutely despise heat and anything over 75 especially with Humidity


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
I’d like to have a spring for once, Highs in low 60s / Lows 40-45 until at least Easter before it gets into the 80s . If we can hold that off Till May I might survive, but I absolutely despise heat and anything over 75 especially with Humidity


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Going to be a long year I'm afraid
 
NCSNOW said:
CFS says just wait till March 18th. Like SD said , our biggest goal is to hold off leaf out now. I did get some frost last night, hopefully that will help. Tree limbs starting to get that swelling, crimson red appearance unfortunately.

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As much moisture is in the ground, it’s going to be very difficult to not see the trees start blooming very quickly if the models are right for late February.
 
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