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Pattern February 2024

KyloG said:
True...and I agree we probably see BN temps the last 10 days of Feb but that gives us 10 days, give or take, to score for folks east of 77/85 corridor.

But until ensembles are inside day 12 it's hard to trust day 15-16. We had been eyeing the 10th as a change but that can has been kicked to the 15th....does it get kicked to the 20th.
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I understand. I really do think this change has legs though, but what sucks is this is likely our last shot. If we screw mid to late Feb up, we will be betting on an anomaly in March (yes, I know there has been monsters in March). This pattern change showing up has a ton of pressure to perform or this Winter is a wrap.
 
KyloG said:
12z EPS saw my cynical smacking ass comment and now is rubbing my face in positive changes...

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Being skeptical is part of our DNA in the SE and rightly so. A strong nino in February with MJO 7-8-1 and models consistently spitting out some cold and split flow is all we can ask for though from a long range standpoint. Let the chips fall
 
Mitch West said:
I understand. I really do think this change has legs though, but what sucks is this is likely our last shot. If we screw mid to late Feb up, we will be betting on an anomaly in March (yes, I know there has been monsters in March). This pattern change showing up has a ton of pressure to perform or this Winter is a wrap.
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I'll be honest, if we miss on weeks 2-4 in February it's almost certainly over. Usually mid march is the cutoff but considering we can't snow during peak climo, there's zero reason to think we can during the transition period into Spring. Now with that said, this is as promising of a 2 week period as we've had in a while around here. I think we get one solid storm at least but if we don't I think it's onto winter 24-25.
 
At the risk of being ridiculed for posting the 384hr GFS... but this is exactly what you'd expect to get with the pattern being shown on all the ensemble/long range modeling. Cross polar flow, mega high pressure pressing down, monster blocked 50/50 low, Active southern stream beginning to interact with the northern stream. This run was going to be an absolute massive winter storm for the South encompassing a large area, IMO.

But it just shows what we hopefully have to look forward to at some point Feb 15-20th.

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SnowNiner said:
Yeah I was thinking the lobe of the pv itself, not the trough lower heights. January it got trapped in Central Canada and everything got caught out west.
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I do also think that we were affected by a poor phase of the MJO that did promote the SER to poke its way up east of the mountains. That shouldn’t be much of an issue in phases 7.8,1 and a strong STJ
 
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