Pattern February 2024

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting trend on the CMCE

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Interesting trend on the CMCE View attachment 144277

That's a pretty stout piece of energy heading south out of Greenland

Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[1300m]

?View attachment 144278

00z Euro had some odd interactions underneath the ridge early on, but it has definitely stepped towards the ICON/GFS/UKMET overall at H5 with the northern vortex regardless of where it goes from here.

 

[Ollie Williams]

You don’t see a Charlotte Special everyday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn

 

[Myfrotho704_]

And with that, I’m off to bed, let’s hope we see things continue later on

 

[Swifty]

 

[Swifty]

000
FXUS62 KGSP 300533
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1233 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024

Confidence remains low on the track
of the upper low, but a nonzero possibility of wintry precip does
exist Sunday into Monday across portions of western NC. A wetter/more
northern track could translate to warmer temps and thus increasing
probs of all rain, but on the other hand this would open us up to
instability and thunderstorms particularly over the southern zones.
Wouldn`t rule out either (or both!) at this point, Sunday and/or
Monday.

 

[iGRXY]

Yuck

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Long term op finally starting to see the light for the pattern change

 

[BHS1975]

Damn View attachment 144280View attachment 144281View attachment 144282View attachment 144283View attachment 144284

Monster wedge. Great that it's on the euro.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[rburrel2]

We hug.

 

[Carolina Sky]

The timing of the possible storm is getting pushed back, too. We were talking around the 4th and now we're looking at the 7th.

 

[BullCityWx]

Control run moved the 850 temp isobars all about 100-150 miles south from 0z op by hour 144.

 

[rburrel2]

The bad news, we're done with snow chances after next weeks threat that's on life support until February 15th.

The good news, February 15-20 looks chef's kiss perfect for a winter storm.

 

[BHS1975]

Long term op finally starting to see the light for the pattern change

View attachment 144290

Cross polar flow
-nao
Ridge out west
50/50 low
Beefy southern jet

If we don't score with that we suck.

 

[rburrel2]

Ummm..

06z Euro control just came in a lot colder at the end of it's run??
Precip maxima is shifted a tad south but I think the upstate was about to be cooking with grease.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Wedge underdone. I’ve gotta bury my head in the sand and just believe. 12z gonna be a pants party.

 

[rburrel2]

This one is far from over. I think it's pretty clear who's still in the game though. Eastern side of the NC Mountains and especially the escarpment/foothills area back to Charlotte. And possibly Upstate SC.

What we need? The northern vortex to trend a little deeper and further south, while keeping the southern wave robust and in tact enough to get the back axis in to the cold air feed on Monday.

Euro control is pretty much the playbook for this. The GFS/Euro/CMC show the same idea but are just a little too late/too warm to capitalize. (Euro did show some snow around charlotte.)

The dynamics with this storm are strong so there is upside potential if things go right. Also there will be a ripping CAD feed Monday morning so we shouldn't have to fight much of a boundary layer as 925mb temps will crash quick,(assuming the northern lobe drops in hard and heavy beforehand like the Euro control shows)