Interesting trend on the CMCE 
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That's a pretty stout piece of energy heading south out of Greenland
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?
00z Euro had some odd interactions underneath the ridge early on, but it has definitely stepped towards the ICON/GFS/UKMET overall at H5 with the northern vortex regardless of where it goes from here.
You don’t see a Charlotte Special everyday
Damn 
And with that, I’m off to bed, let’s hope we see things continue later on 
iGRXY
Member
Yuck
Cary_Snow95
Member
Long term op finally starting to see the light for the pattern change
BHS1975
Member
rburrel2
Member
We hug.
Brick Tamland
Member
The timing of the possible storm is getting pushed back, too. We were talking around the 4th and now we're looking at the 7th.
Control run moved the 850 temp isobars all about 100-150 miles south from 0z op by hour 144.
rburrel2
Member
The bad news, we're done with snow chances after next weeks threat that's on life support until February 15th.
The good news, February 15-20 looks chef's kiss perfect for a winter storm.
The good news, February 15-20 looks chef's kiss perfect for a winter storm.
BHS1975
Member
Cross polar flow
-nao
Ridge out west
50/50 low
Beefy southern jet
If we don't score with that we suck.
rburrel2
Member
Ummm..
06z Euro control just came in a lot colder at the end of it's run??
Precip maxima is shifted a tad south but I think the upstate was about to be cooking with grease.
06z Euro control just came in a lot colder at the end of it's run??
Precip maxima is shifted a tad south but I think the upstate was about to be cooking with grease.
Wedge underdone. I’ve gotta bury my head in the sand and just believe. 12z gonna be a pants party.
rburrel2
Member
This one is far from over. I think it's pretty clear who's still in the game though. Eastern side of the NC Mountains and especially the escarpment/foothills area back to Charlotte. And possibly Upstate SC.
What we need? The northern vortex to trend a little deeper and further south, while keeping the southern wave robust and in tact enough to get the back axis in to the cold air feed on Monday.
Euro control is pretty much the playbook for this. The GFS/Euro/CMC show the same idea but are just a little too late/too warm to capitalize. (Euro did show some snow around charlotte.)
The dynamics with this storm are strong so there is upside potential if things go right. Also there will be a ripping CAD feed Monday morning so we shouldn't have to fight much of a boundary layer as 925mb temps will crash quick,(assuming the northern lobe drops in hard and heavy beforehand like the Euro control shows)
What we need? The northern vortex to trend a little deeper and further south, while keeping the southern wave robust and in tact enough to get the back axis in to the cold air feed on Monday.
Euro control is pretty much the playbook for this. The GFS/Euro/CMC show the same idea but are just a little too late/too warm to capitalize. (Euro did show some snow around charlotte.)
The dynamics with this storm are strong so there is upside potential if things go right. Also there will be a ripping CAD feed Monday morning so we shouldn't have to fight much of a boundary layer as 925mb temps will crash quick,(assuming the northern lobe drops in hard and heavy beforehand like the Euro control shows)