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Pattern February 2024

Cary_Snow95 said:
Wow fro is right

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Main problem now is the S/W isn’t lagging behind but could argue if we see a little more of this could have a sheared wave with a light event, unless we find a way for the S/W to hang back some more if western ridging trends even stronger, or tilt the northern piece some more with lower heights to our NE
 
LukeBarrette said:
Looks all modeling trended to suppression…
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It at least sets the stage for us to possibly score with a followup wave, which is how most of the ensemble members that show wintery are getting it done.

We may need something like the 00z CMC showed where a fresh followup wave from the pacific re-blooms precips across our area. It just wasn't cold enough with the initial push, but seems that's trended way better at 06z.
 
rburrel2 said:
It at least sets the stage for us to possibly score with a followup wave, which is how most of the ensemble members that show wintery are getting it done.
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Wasting that really strong southern shortwave is going to be really bad if can’t get it to work.
 
SD said:
Staring to really open the phase door with this trend
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There are all kinds of scenarios still on the table however I see two being the most likely.
1: Sheared out wave that gives light snow to the majority of VA/NC (cold chasing moisture).
2: Phase too early and most of us are rain.
 
LukeBarrette said:
There are all kinds of scenarios still on the table however I see two being the most likely.
1: Sheared out wave that gives light snow to the majority of VA/NC (cold chasing moisture).
2: Phase too early and most of us are rain.
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I thought the 0z gfs was a winner at h5 but since you cant get a word in edgewise here with the negative posters I just left it alone.

That said yeah I agree with you on her 2 scenarios unless we get some changes which seem likely
 
Not great but models have been struggling with the fast pacific even at day 6-7, that I’m not sure we even want them showing snow as it will change. Kind of hoping we see just enough hope and then day 4 we start seeing something more tangible.

IMG_0654.png
 
tarheels2 said:
What does that even mean
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He's talking about how close this has gotten to a phase between the polar jet and the sub-tropical jet which would result in a strong LP system that jackpots some while flooding those east of the core with warm air.
 
SD said:
I thought the 0z gfs was a winner at h5 but since you cant get a word in edgewise here with the negative posters I just left it alone.

That said yeah I agree with you on her 2 scenarios unless we get some changes which seem likely
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I agree with this also but dang what a roller coaster of events between the last couple cycles. Best to see if the 06z runs were the start of a trend or still just an oscillation as more and more data gets ingested into future runs. 6z GFS was really close to a phase and rapid cyclogenesis.
 
SD said:
I thought the 0z gfs was a winner at h5 but since you cant get a word in edgewise here with the negative posters I just left it alone.

That said yeah I agree with you on her 2 scenarios unless we get some changes which seem likely
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Close to a big phase event but that a high risk high reward type of storm. Got to time it just right. Too early and up comes the WAA to scour out the cold ahead of the low. Too late and, well, what you see on most of the models right now.
 
rburrel2 said:
It at least sets the stage for us to possibly score with a followup wave, which is how most of the ensemble members that show wintery are getting it done.

We may need something like the 00z CMC showed where a fresh followup wave from the pacific re-blooms precips across our area. It just wasn't cold enough with the initial push, but seems that's trended way better at 06z.
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I actually think that’s where the 0z ICON would have gone if it went out further. It showed a 1040mb high coming in on the backside of the initial wave with moisture blossoming in the western GOM while a piece of energy was coming in from the west
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Icon looks like major suppression
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Yeah, it shreds the Baja S/W.
icon_z500_vort_us_53.png
 
I realize we are not finished with changes and lots of time for a final solution, but it is frustrating to always have either cold and dry or warm and wet. Now we see suppression as an outcome after we get the stronger Ridge in the west. Maybe the N stream will not be as dominant, and we can have a nice overrunning event?
 
Forevertothee said:
I realize we are not finished with changes and lots of time for a final solution, but it is frustrating to always have either cold and dry or warm and wet. Now we see suppression as an outcome after we get the stronger Ridge in the west. Maybe the N stream will not be as dominant, and we can have a nice overrunning event?
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I don’t think people realize how crucial it is to get that PNA strength and positioning correct. We need a digging wave. Always have. It’s a thing of beauty when it finally clicks and you get the digging and the tilt correct with a jammed flow high pressure settled in out front.
 
Forevertothee said:
I realize we are not finished with changes and lots of time for a final solution, but it is frustrating to always have either cold and dry or warm and wet. Now we see suppression as an outcome after we get the stronger Ridge in the west. Maybe the N stream will not be as dominant, and we can have a nice overrunning event?
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overrunning is exactly where my mind went. Relying on a specifically well-timed phase is tough.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
CMC is so close and so far at the same time. It’s a sick game
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Yep. Closest to the solution I want. But then the big pacific low moves in, and what was some nice northern stream confluence and a trailing high, gets blasted by the pacific, also the energy digging in squashes the overall pattern even more initially
 
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