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Pattern February 2024

CMC actually had some snow down in southern SC
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It’s the @1300m winning move
I think it's clear what we're looking for. Still a looong way to go, but the pay window could be about to open. GFS definitely took a step towards it's ensembles, ICON went all the way and even the CMC, which was in the euro camp as far as being furthest east with northern vortex also came a long way back to this idea at H5.

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Just one more of that and something that can’t be unseen will be seen
Couple sizable moves. It’s a shame we’re having to spend all this time backtracking and undoing last nights 00z suite. That was such a backbreaker but that’s the name of the game around here
 
Hard to tell if the gefs is gonna be better or not, you can see certain things that have happened on modeling tonight occur a little but it’s still so smoothed out
Bingo. Comparing the GEFS mean at h5 w/ GFS and ICON, it seems like the northern vortex and our southern ULL are nearly identically placed. As I've been discussing, it's that energy wrapping around the northern vortex that is the make it or break it and it's too far out / too smoothed still to fully pick up on it, but the slight eastward adjustment in the GEFS combined with a stronger, more northern southern ULL track will allow it to better interact potentially. We'll see!
 
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