Canadian looks good.. temps are crashing NW of the sfc low as it bombs off shore. Just a little too warm verbatimCMC looks like crap so far at the SFC but it’s so much better at H5 View attachment 144251
a 975 off frying pay shoals? are we sure we don't need to pay attention to wind shear and SSTsThis is so close to a nuking View attachment 144258View attachment 144259View attachment 144260View attachment 144261
Never liedCMC looks like crap so far at the SFC but it’s so much better at H5 View attachment 144251
Just one more of that and something that can’t be unseen will be seenNever lied View attachment 144263
I think it's clear what we're looking for. Still a looong way to go, but the pay window could be about to open. GFS definitely took a step towards it's ensembles, ICON went all the way and even the CMC, which was in the euro camp as far as being furthest east with northern vortex also came a long way back to this idea at H5.It’s the @1300m winning move
Couple sizable moves. It’s a shame we’re having to spend all this time backtracking and undoing last nights 00z suite. That was such a backbreaker but that’s the name of the game around hereJust one more of that and something that can’t be unseen will be seen
Bingo. Comparing the GEFS mean at h5 w/ GFS and ICON, it seems like the northern vortex and our southern ULL are nearly identically placed. As I've been discussing, it's that energy wrapping around the northern vortex that is the make it or break it and it's too far out / too smoothed still to fully pick up on it, but the slight eastward adjustment in the GEFS combined with a stronger, more northern southern ULL track will allow it to better interact potentially. We'll see!Hard to tell if the gefs is gonna be better or not, you can see certain things that have happened on modeling tonight occur a little but it’s still so smoothed out