Pattern February 2024

[1300m]

Massive differences at H5 in the eastern Pacific even at 96hrs between the Euro and GFS.

 

[accu35]

Gfs really doesn’t like this first wave for wintry

 

[packfan98]

You gotta know when to hold em know when to fold emView attachment 146090

Any good takeaways? Better western ridge and cold air source centered further east?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS is just to progressive with the initial stuff that slides over the lakes, and gives us the initial Cold feed the euro has

 

[1300m]

Massive differences at H5 in the eastern Pacific even at 96hrs between the Euro and GFS.
View attachment 146091
View attachment 146092

FWIW the ICON is similar to the GFS and the CMC is decidedly in the Euro's camp. Based on the recent H5 skill scores and my own observations this winter, I'd lean towards the CMC/Euro being more correct but you never know.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

We're in eight. Where it goes from here, it hasn't a clue.

 

[Ross]

You gotta know when to hold em know when to fold emView attachment 146090

Salutations, on a train rn, my stop in Durham coming soon

I’ve been out of the loop for last 36 hours can someone tell me what I should be cheering for/booing/etc because I don’t see much here

 

[LukeBarrette]

We toss

 

[1300m]

Salutations, on a train rn, my stop in Durham coming soon

I’ve been out of the loop for last 36 hours can someone tell me what I should be cheering for/booing/etc because I don’t see much here

Root for the 12z Euro and EPS adjustments to continue.

 

[SD]

Any good takeaways? Better western ridge and cold air source centered further east?

It's a step toward the euro with a more suppressed height field and less WSW/SW wind at 850. It's obviously not the 12z euro but it at least gives that euro run some validation that we might be progressing in a better direction

 

[SD]

Salutations, on a train rn, my stop in Durham coming soon

I’ve been out of the loop for last 36 hours can someone tell me what I should be cheering for/booing/etc because I don’t see much here

Root for the 12z Euro and EPS adjustments to continue.

^this

 

[SD]

I'm assuming this gfs being deeper with the trough across the upper Midwest isn't helping us either. Here are the 12z icon, cmc, euro vs the 18z gfs but I might just be nitpicking this to death which I shouldn't be

 

[accu35]

Some how don’t know how but 18z gefs has some snow member in the deep south for the wave

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z GEFS looking more like the euro

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Chazwin]

18z GEFS looking more like the euro View attachment 146098View attachment 146099View attachment 146100View attachment 146101

What exactly does it say about an op model when it’s own ensembles are more in line with another op model?

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 146102

fro, can you throw up the 12z for comparison? Thanks

 

[Myfrotho704_]

fro, can you throw up the 12z for comparison? Thanks

 

[Deleted member 609]

18z GEFS looking more like the euro View attachment 146098View attachment 146099View attachment 146100View attachment 146101

Weird that shows snow on the bottom map. Most of the individual members are rain.

 

[Ethan80963]

Weird that shows snow on the bottom map. Most of the individual members are rain.

It’s definitely skewed the members that show snow are monsters

 

[packfan98]

The College of Dupage site only shows 20 ensemble members out of the 30, but the mean seems to show the mix of all 30 from what I’ve observed. Weatherbell shows all 30.

 

[Ethan80963]

The College of Dupage site only shows 20 ensemble members out of the 30, but the mean seems to show the mix of all 30 from what I’ve observed. Weatherbell shows all 30.

Oh yeah I completely forgot that weatherbell had 30 members! Definitely some better members on the other 10. Thanks for posting

 

[JLL1973]

Long range gfs says i need to go ahead and get the camper and boat out of storage. End of February looking warm

 

[WNC_Fort]

Just curious what happened to the great pattern that was expected to develop in Feb and keep us cold and snowy through March? Genuine question of what went wrong as I know a lot of respected mets and contributors on here were very excited about Feb.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just curious what happened to the great pattern that was expected to develop in Feb and keep us cold and snowy through March? Genuine question of what went wrong as I know a lot of respected mets and contributors on here were very excited about Feb.

Long range OP GFS is the starting point of the problem

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Long range OP GFS is the starting point of the problem

 

[Snowfan]

Just curious what happened to the great pattern that was expected to develop in Feb and keep us cold and snowy through March? Genuine question of what went wrong as I know a lot of respected mets and contributors on here were very excited about Feb.

Way too early to write off the pattern. The models have a tendency of overextending the jet at this range and then catching up closer to verification.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z euro continues the trend the moving the S/W in the NW US at day 4-5 further east. Good to see ! This process is crucial to our threat at D8

 

[CaryWx]

Is that that the pna ridge building just off the cali coast on the 18z 90hr?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

18z euro continues the trend the moving the S/W in the NW US at day 4-5 further east. Good to see ! This process is crucial to our threat at D8 View attachment 146109

That's a massive move for a long-wave feature inside of four days. Can we keep this trend going? I sure hope so!

 

[packfan98]

@Myfrotho704_ whats your take on the 18z EPS?

 

[Flotown]

18z euro continues the trend the moving the S/W in the NW US at day 4-5 further east. Good to see ! This process is crucial to our threat at D8 View attachment 146109

for carolinas or others?

 

[Arcc]

for carolinas or others?

It’s good for everyone. The farther east it is, the greater the infusion of cold air and the less interaction with the trough over the Pacific thus it lessens the dampening down of the west coast ridge.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

When will this actually be sampled ? Ik someone posted that the Pacific Ridging could start to die down as we get closer bc Computers struggling to catch up. But Sampled when Monday? Tuesday ?


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[Snowfan]

When will this actually be sampled ? Ik someone posted that the Pacific Ridging could start to die down as we get closer bc Computers struggling to catch up. But Sampled when Monday? Tuesday ?


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Should get better agreement by Monday/Tuesday.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

I know it’s nitpicking but I’d rather this thing come in Friday night or overnight Saturday night…. Idk about height of the storm dead afternoon. I thinks that’s happened 3x in my life it’s snowed in daylight


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[Chazwin]

When will this actually be sampled ? Ik someone posted that the Pacific Ridging could start to die down as we get closer bc Computers struggling to catch up. But Sampled when Monday? Tuesday ?


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Well judging by the way that the EURO, EPS, and JMA changed this afternoon, I’m fairly certain there was new data put into those models

 

[CaryWx]

That's a massive move for a long-wave feature inside of four days. Can we keep this trend going? I sure hope so!

Curious to see if we get another jump like that on the 0z. Can't be up for that one but if it does jump again we might have a ballgame in more of the se

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Myfrotho704_ whats your take on the 18z EPS?

Huge improvement from 12z. Almost no energy now clogging up the western ridge, the pacific trough has backed up the last 3 runs. Probably the best look yet from the EPS

 

[griteater]

Huge improvement from 12z. Almost no energy now clogging up the western ridge, the pacific trough has backed up the last 3 runs. Probably the best look yet from the EPSView attachment 146112View attachment 146113

Better ridge building thru California and Oregon this run