Yeah and that look gets better when you go forward a few days. One thing I’m noticing is that as all of the modeling is keeping east and southeast Canada very cold even through our torch. If we can get a good CAD to set up, it’s got a great source region to tap into
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
rburrel2
Member
Yep, something similar to what the 384hr 18z GFS was showing basically. That's probably the mostly likely type of setup we could get for the first week of February to score.
Well I’ll always prefer a strong CAD set up here. Cold doesn’t have to come over the mountains and they typically hang in longer than expected. Who knows… maybe we can get a good so east of the Apps can score while west of the Apps is watching
BHS1975
Member
I can’t tell if you guys are joking. There isn’t much encouraging in this. The NPac low getting going maybe.
Over the arctic blows
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I like the trend in the Atlantic though
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No we’re not joking. You’re mistaken on this one. That location of the TPV is no way bad. What do you think is causing that CAD and ice signal on the GEFS at a time that’s supposed to be part of the torch. If it were to closer to the pole to the pole then the risk would be of it becoming coupled with the SPV and that would probably start an early spring. Here though you can see the higher heights are over the pole. This is isn’t the best look, but it’s by no means the worst.
Edit: Also if you remember back to February 2021, ensembles were originally showing a TPV in that area and it was leading to plenty of runs with multiple ice/snow/mixed bag storms in the Carolinas. However the MJO was getting very amped up in phase 5 going into phase 6 and the reaction to that was a stonger WAR and SER that trended the PV west and dumped the cold west. Now we look to be drastically amping down the MJO at that time and with what looks like a good STJ the SER and WAR would be muted.
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The TPV here is far south enough that it could root to something in the lower latitudes if some quick transient ridge axis goes up around the NW territories. especially in the NE US and produce a CAD setup with trailing +heights, especially as wavelengths shorten over the next few weeks. I think that’s what people are referring to. That’s not your classic +NAM aka it’s over look which 2020 had that problem. It’s more closer to a +TNH due to the -WPO. certainly not a great look because the progressive nature of that look, but it’s not the stereotypical 1000mb to 500mb +NAM look that ends it all.
Pattern has to reload! Alaska getting cold, ready to dump end of February! For marvelous March! When TN gets below zero, that’s full Siberia discharge! It’ll build back up! ?
Flotown
Member
we didnt really think we was gonna get this winter weather a few weeks back...JS
iGRXY
Member
Last mega CAD we had was Jan 2022 miller B storm. Solid mid to low 20’s for the entirety of that storm.
iGRXY
Member
That look can easily be workable. Especially if you start dropping the TPV further south east. Very close look to getting cross Polar Flow as well. And let’s not forget this is the extended off hour GEFS and that’s all I have to say on that.
NCSNOW
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We no doubt hoover around normal temp wise post 1/29-1/30 onward. You roll through the 6z GFS OP and its a constant parade of one NE HP after another which is great news for us east of Apps. But something else transpires 1/30 all the way out. Its bone dry across most of the entire conus / at least on this fairy tale Long Range gfs Op run. So we warm up for a few days next week and get soaked as well, Then flip to normal temp wise as Fab Feb rolls in. I have to give credit. The models have been pretty good this winter/ consistently correct. They do really well when you have a dominant signal.
Twister
Member
Avg normal temps for Feb here in upstate is 57° if we are normal for Feb and that looks like it could be the case, then Winter is over
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Oconeexman
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It's been that way for a while. Daffys and trees start blooming in Feb now. Get maybe 1 cold snap late Feb or early March but for the most part winter is over here once we get past Feb 10th-ish...
The GEFS and GEPS, I can’t pull up the EPS out past 10 days, both still have a fairly strong CAD signature in the 1/28 to 2/1 timeframe and moisture coming through. After that both keep that TPV in eastern Canada and towards the Baffin Bay… that thing really prevents any of the milder air to reach east and se Canada and gives a good source region for CAD. Out west the ridge does stay up and another is up near Alaska… it’s honestly surprising to see the higher heights east of the Mississippi with that set up.
Split flow off of the WC will try to keep things cooler the farther E you go but it looks like eventually the nose of the pacific jet will simply get too far E and we will warm.
You can easily see why the was/is still great optimism for Feb with the traditional split flow and the parade of highs to our north. We are just flying too close to the sun with too much pac jet. If we see and we should to some degree a retraction of this jet the pattern should get better but a total pac jet collapse might have a tendency to over load with cold or drop cold to our W
iGRXY
Member
The worst thing that has happened to our weather here in the east is the Pac Jet being the dominate feature in our patterns. It just completely destroys even solid looking patterns by being too far east or over extended.
