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Pattern February 2024

Webberweather53 said:
You can also see the 18z GEFS is quickly evolving into a big -NAO after Feb 5.

All that westerly momentum in the Pacific Jet that’s creating the mild pattern initially gets used up by large southward-shifted cyclonic wave breaks in/around N America. That process will kickstart a -NAO.

Remember that the -NAO actually is associated with an equatorward shifted storm track in/around N America and N Atlantic. We’re doing just that later in week 2 and even more so into week 3
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Exhibit A
299cfdd414c5da848ec3b8f4db1bd467.gif


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KyloG said:
Just an absurd omega block that looks like it could be a real pain to shake....which is typical.

View attachment 143080
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Rossby wave train printer go brrr. That’s Gonna seed into the upcoming -NAO. But that’s a cool ass omega block. Looks like what we had all of last May/June which completely ruined Memorial Day last year with cold air damming
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Rossby wave train printer go brrr. That’s Gonna seed into the upcoming -NAO. But that’s a cool ass omega block. Looks like what we had all of last May/June which completely ruined Memorial Day last year with cold air damming
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Like I said before, all this talk about a torch .. we would figure out a way to go right into a CAD pattern. Raised heights over the NE and Canada, Lower heights over the Northern Atlantic. Get ready for lots of upper 30's and lower 40 cloudy and misty days.
 
Bet the initial process goes warm this week, then next week we prob get some damming days as we lose connection to the subtropics, but warm days mixed in, then things get more seasonal as the subtropical jet starts to undercut the Canadian ridging and the longwave pattern becomes -tilt out west so we lose connection to any subtropical ridging, we get a plethora of -NAMT which slows down the Atlantic jet, the lower heights in the Atlantic encourage a ATR, and with each southern stream wave that undercuts and breaks, it goes into the development of a -NAO. I’m more confident on that. I think what’s more questionable is the pacific. Do we stay extended for a while ? Or do we retrograde the GOAK low to the Aleutian Islands. On ensembles, it backs up as the undercutting begins, but to me that’s tbd 38C9F921-99BB-41D3-93BB-58EC6C199318.png19A545E0-81FD-462A-8EE8-A25CED460EB5.png11B5CE53-BC41-49CB-9954-B744A004EF1D.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Bet the initial process goes warm this week, then next week we prob get some damming days as we lose connection to the subtropics, but warm days mixed in, then things get more seasonal as the subtropical jet starts to undercut the Canadian ridging and the longwave pattern becomes -tilt out west so we lose connection to any subtropical ridging, we get a plethora of -NAMT which slows down the Atlantic jet, the lower heights in the Atlantic encourage a ATR, and with each southern stream wave that undercuts and breaks, it goes into the development of a -NAO. I’m more confident on that. I think what’s more questionable is the pacific. Do we stay extended for a while ? Or do we retrograde the GOAK low to the Aleutian Islands. On ensembles, it backs up as the undercutting begins, but to me that’s tbd View attachment 143083View attachment 143084View attachment 143085
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Definitely cautious with the longer range ensembles because I think they have just been to fast with everything pattern wise, but they basically do what I expect overall. The big ridge in Canada eventually becomes a -NAO as wavebreaking occurs, the pac trough backs up to the Aleutian Islands. 6D7C5C41-AE7A-447E-9709-F6BC5F90E21B.gif2E9FCF6E-7E9B-4319-B843-B8975069A2BA.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
sometime in February is probably gonna have a KU look/pattern. Just too common with Feb ninos. Question is do we score or does the mid Atlantic score off that
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Yeah my concern is the winning being to our north but it's easy to envision a pattern toward mid Feb that could push snow well well south and suppression be a concern for some of us
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Definitely cautious with the longer range ensembles because I think they have just been to fast with everything pattern wise, but they basically do what I expect overall. The big ridge in Canada eventually becomes a -NAO as wavebreaking occurs, the pac trough backs up to the Aleutian Islands. View attachment 143086View attachment 143087
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Just wanted to compliment you on your ability to recognize patterns at every level,
Esp the 500 level.
Your understanding and ability to read models is off the charts.
You've done it consistently so long at such a young age,
You actually have a wisdom to the progressions and setups.
You're a huge asset here.
I hope your getting your meteorology degree.
If not,
It should be thought about in a serious manner.
It appears to some of us lurkers that this is your calling.
Thank you for being here.
This is a sincere post.

??
 
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Billypg70 said:
Just wanted to compliment you on your ability to recognize patterns at every level,
Esp the 500 level.
Your understanding and ability to read models is off the charts.
You've done it consistently so long at such a young age,
You actually have a wisdom to the progressions and setups.
You're a huge asset here.
I hope your getting your metrology degree.
If not,
It should be thought about in a serious manner.
It appears to some of us lurkers that this is your calling.
Thank you for being here.
This is a sincere post.

??
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Thanks man I really appreciate it. I think this spring/summer I know what I need to do ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not a huge fan of this timeframe but there’s no doubt a quick window of favorability it seems before the secondary extension happens View attachment 143101View attachment 143100View attachment 143102
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TBH, I've hated this time period. Coming off a furnace and with only a short window of opportunity, but half the time that's when we score instead of those obvious windows we're all salivating over.

At least with this look we don't have to worry about it being too far west (famous last words)...
 
Billypg70 said:
Just wanted to compliment you on your ability to recognize patterns at every level,
Esp the 500 level.
Your understanding and ability to read models is off the charts.
You've done it consistently so long at such a young age,
You actually have a wisdom to the progressions and setups.
You're a huge asset here.
I hope your getting your metrology degree.
If not,
It should be thought about in a serious manner.
It appears to some of us lurkers that this is your calling.
Thank you for being here.
This is a sincere post.

??
Click to expand...
Second this notion. I'd be happy to answer any questions or offer any advise as well, if desired! This goes for anyone with an interest / desire to go into meteorology.
 
Billypg70 said:
Just wanted to compliment you on your ability to recognize patterns at every level,
Esp the 500 level.
Your understanding and ability to read models is off the charts.
You've done it consistently so long at such a young age,
You actually have a wisdom to the progressions and setups.
You're a huge asset here.
I hope your getting your metrology degree.
If not,
It should be thought about in a serious manner.
It appears to some of us lurkers that this is your calling.
Thank you for being here.
This is a sincere post.

??
Click to expand...

Thank you for saying this - I’ve been thinking the same. You have a gift @Myfrotho704_ ! The world needs you - plus you should be getting paid for your talents! ?
 
Any chance the cold decides to dump east this time around instead of west again? JB seems to think so.
 
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