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Pattern February 2024

Feb 87 Looks better than most winter months. They dont break out sleet from snow

1987-02-01582441.0-1.72400.000.00
1987-02-02474244.51.62000.150.00
1987-02-03614050.57.51400.000.00
1987-02-04553545.01.92000.000.00
1987-02-05482938.5-4.82600.000.00
1987-02-06602442.0-1.42300.000.00
1987-02-07614050.56.91400.000.00
1987-02-08653248.54.71600.000.00
1987-02-09412533.0-10.93200.000.00
1987-02-10562641.0-3.12400.000.00
1987-02-11592542.0-2.32300.000.00
1987-02-12693250.56.1140T0.00
1987-02-13583245.00.42000.000.00
1987-02-14593346.01.21900.080.00
1987-02-15433338.0-7.0270T0.00
1987-02-16362329.5-15.73501.884.10
1987-02-17322629.0-16.43600.280.95
1987-02-18352831.5-14.1330T0.05
1987-02-19452434.5-11.33000.000.04
1987-02-20512437.5-8.52700.000.04
1987-02-21482938.5-7.72600.000.03
1987-02-22382632.0-14.43300.760.02
1987-02-23533443.5-3.12100.080.01
1987-02-24502738.5-8.32600.000.0T
1987-02-25502939.5-7.52500.000.00
1987-02-26482938.5-8.72600.000.00
1987-02-27423237.0-10.52801.535.22
1987-02-28583446.0-1.71900.760.02
Sum1426837--68105.5210.2-
Average50.929.940.4-4.6----1.0
Normal55.834.245.0-56222.781.4
 
Feb 87 Looks better than most winter months. They dont break out sleet from snow

1987-02-01582441.0-1.72400.000.00
1987-02-02474244.51.62000.150.00
1987-02-03614050.57.51400.000.00
1987-02-04553545.01.92000.000.00
1987-02-05482938.5-4.82600.000.00
1987-02-06602442.0-1.42300.000.00
1987-02-07614050.56.91400.000.00
1987-02-08653248.54.71600.000.00
1987-02-09412533.0-10.93200.000.00
1987-02-10562641.0-3.12400.000.00
1987-02-11592542.0-2.32300.000.00
1987-02-12693250.56.1140T0.00
1987-02-13583245.00.42000.000.00
1987-02-14593346.01.21900.080.00
1987-02-15433338.0-7.0270T0.00
1987-02-16362329.5-15.73501.884.10
1987-02-17322629.0-16.43600.280.95
1987-02-18352831.5-14.1330T0.05
1987-02-19452434.5-11.33000.000.04
1987-02-20512437.5-8.52700.000.04
1987-02-21482938.5-7.72600.000.03
1987-02-22382632.0-14.43300.760.02
1987-02-23533443.5-3.12100.080.01
1987-02-24502738.5-8.32600.000.0T
1987-02-25502939.5-7.52500.000.00
1987-02-26482938.5-8.72600.000.00
1987-02-27423237.0-10.52801.535.22
1987-02-28583446.0-1.71900.760.02
Sum1426837--68105.5210.2-
Average50.929.940.4-4.6----1.0
Normal55.834.245.0-56222.781.4
What’s the location
 
The sleet in 87 was 2 days. On the second day we had heavy sleet and wind with temps in the teens that morning. I remember wral had windchills in the negative single digits. The sleet+cold wind would really sting any exposed skin.
 
Didn’t one of those February ‘87 storms give Raleigh something like 6-8” of sleet?
Yeah, I think it did. That one started as rain here but turned over to sleet. We got around 2 inches of sleet here from it, but areas northeast of me got more because the CAD hit them 1st and more precip fell with cold air in place. The NWS busted big time calling for only rain in upstate SC with it. I do not know what they saw, but I remember it was around 36-37 with rain here as I went to school, while GSO was already down to 27 even before any precip got there. By 2pm or so, we had dropped to 24, while GSO had gone into the teens.
 
1987 was a banner year for GVL North.
I know Anderson got a good snow in Jan.
GVL got a foot..
We had a big sleet storm in Feb.
First time we got snow in April in my life that year also.
85 N got an Inch the closer you got to the NC border in GVL county the totals went up drastically..
Parts of the NC mountains got 2-3 feet.
I'm very surprised at the lack of video or even pictures from any of the storms of 1987.
Mt Pisgah had WLOS transmitter on top,
Got over 30 inches if memory serves in that April storm.




If that low had tracked farther south more of us would have got in on that April storm. If I remember right the low tracked close to I-85 and while it was 50 or so here, Asheville was being pounded with snow. Some snow fell in the mountains right on through that weekend, finally ending on Sunday evening.
 
Yeah, I think it did. That one started as rain here but turned over to sleet. We got around 2 inches of sleet here from it, but areas northeast of me got more because the CAD hit them 1st and more precip fell with cold air in place. The NWS busted big time calling for only rain in upstate SC with it. I do not know what they saw, but I remember it was around 36-37 with rain here as I went to school, while GSO was already down to 27 even before any precip got there. By 2pm or so, we had dropped to 24, while GSO had gone into the teens.
Yeah I remember that the sleet started in Concord while buses were on the road that morning and it was covering the roads right away… when schools were announced closed, many buses got to schools only to be told to turn around and take kids home
 
The reason why I brought up 1987 yesterday as it fooled around in ph7 most of Feb and we saw how great Feb 87 was. Maybe lightning can strike twice.

View attachment 143170
What must it have been like for the MJO to actually be on the left side of the chart during winter. SMH
 
But this was just one factor that… we also had a very strong west based -NAO coupled with a slightly +PNA.
It's all intertwined..driven by MJO/ENSO state. Jan 2010 had a major SSW helped by the big npac low in Dec which was driven by ENSO/MJO. It's all dependent.
 
The blocking day 10+ on the Canadian ens is really sick too...
I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.
 
1707242400-9m4RgYtoupQ.png

Central Canada Ridging with Ridging starting to poke in Greenland. Nice deep trough in the 50/50 Regions and a very active southern stream. All of those heights in Canada and the midwest will build HP with a nice cold air feed to easts east. This is a very interesting look for those of us East of the mountains.
 
I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.
CMC-e and GFS-e have high pressuring traversing the arctic, we obviously need the pacific to improve some but if the atlantic can help this is looking promising for mid-Feb and on.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-7393600.png
 
I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.
Yea. The GFS has virtually no support from it's ensembles either. Almost all of them develop a massive/crawling spinning low over the central plains instead of undercutting the ridge in the 240-300hr timeframe.

I'm fine accepting that fate though. It seems like it'll be a delayed not denied situation, where even if we don't get that pattern as quick as the GFS shows, it should come soon after.
 
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