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Pattern February 2024

iGRXY said:
These things are never as good or as bad as depicted. I’m not trying to sound like a weenie but I’m just not trusting these things to tell me what February is going to look like on January 19th when these things flip around every couple days. Now if it’s the end of January showing this then that’s a totally different story and even then I’d trust it through the first week.in a week we could very easily see a full blown trough in the east or a full United States ridge. My point is seeing people freak out at every model run or even the MJO sitting in a low amp’d bad phase 12 days away is overblown when we should know by now that these things just simply can’t be trusted past day 5 regardless of what it’s showing.
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Relax, nobody is freaking out...this is a Feb weather discussion thread. Keep the mocking to a minimum.
 
I’ve got my fingers crossed for a flurry sighting but I’m not sure what’s on radar to my NW will make it here. The sky is really dark though towards Martinsville.
 
iGRXY said:
These things are never as good or as bad as depicted. I’m not trying to sound like a weenie but I’m just not trusting these things to tell me what February is going to look like on January 19th when these things flip around every couple days. Now if it’s the end of January showing this then that’s a totally different story and even then I’d trust it through the first week.in a week we could very easily see a full blown trough in the east or a full United States ridge. My point is seeing people freak out at every model run or even the MJO sitting in a low amp’d bad phase 12 days away is overblown when we should know by now that these things just simply can’t be trusted past day 5 regardless of what it’s showing.
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This is the second year in a row I’ve booked a mountain vacation for the first weekend in February a long ways out. With a vacation scheduled, my focus is and was on a specific time frame. Looking back at last year, I remember the roller coaster of possibilities - models and ensembles first looked warm and rainy a couple weeks out, then showed a possible winter storm, then went back to warm, and so on. It ended up being cold and dry while I was there, probably the second coldest stretch of the winter besides the one around Christmas 22. That wasn’t presented on the models until a few days out, and while I didn’t get to see snow falling, I still took a day trip up to higher elevations and saw snow on the ground- the only snow I’d see all last winter.

I’m trying this go round not to get down or overly excited about anything this far out. While a lot of this hobby is about dwelling on the future, the eventual outcome is going to be the same no matter what the models show two weeks, one week or one day in advance. Looking at models provides entertainment for all of us, good or bad, but it’s also important to enjoy the present, whether it’s sunny or rainy, warm or cold, and especially if it’s snowy.
 
if im not mistaken didnt we reap the benifits with this recent winter weather due to the lag of mjo beong in favorable phase a couple weeks ago??
 
Flotown said:
if im not mistaken didnt we reap the benifits with this recent winter weather due to the lag of mjo beong in favorable phase a couple weeks ago??
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Not really… the MJO doesn’t have a lag time like the other indicies do. The key this week has been a low amped MJO… next week we’re high amped in phase 5/6 which helps promote the warmth we’ll see.
 
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