Pattern February 2024

[lexxnchloe]

Feb 87 Looks better than most winter months. They dont break out sleet from snow

1987-02-01	58	24	41.0	-1.7	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-02	47	42	44.5	1.6	20	0	0.15	0.0	0
1987-02-03	61	40	50.5	7.5	14	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-04	55	35	45.0	1.9	20	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-05	48	29	38.5	-4.8	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-06	60	24	42.0	-1.4	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-07	61	40	50.5	6.9	14	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-08	65	32	48.5	4.7	16	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-09	41	25	33.0	-10.9	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-10	56	26	41.0	-3.1	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-11	59	25	42.0	-2.3	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-12	69	32	50.5	6.1	14	0	T	0.0	0
1987-02-13	58	32	45.0	0.4	20	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-14	59	33	46.0	1.2	19	0	0.08	0.0	0
1987-02-15	43	33	38.0	-7.0	27	0	T	0.0	0
1987-02-16	36	23	29.5	-15.7	35	0	1.88	4.1	0
1987-02-17	32	26	29.0	-16.4	36	0	0.28	0.9	5
1987-02-18	35	28	31.5	-14.1	33	0	T	0.0	5
1987-02-19	45	24	34.5	-11.3	30	0	0.00	0.0	4
1987-02-20	51	24	37.5	-8.5	27	0	0.00	0.0	4
1987-02-21	48	29	38.5	-7.7	26	0	0.00	0.0	3
1987-02-22	38	26	32.0	-14.4	33	0	0.76	0.0	2
1987-02-23	53	34	43.5	-3.1	21	0	0.08	0.0	1
1987-02-24	50	27	38.5	-8.3	26	0	0.00	0.0	T
1987-02-25	50	29	39.5	-7.5	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-26	48	29	38.5	-8.7	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-27	42	32	37.0	-10.5	28	0	1.53	5.2	2
1987-02-28	58	34	46.0	-1.7	19	0	0.76	0.0	2
Sum	1426	837	-	-	681	0	5.52	10.2	-
Average	50.9	29.9	40.4	-4.6	-	-	-	-	1.0
Normal	55.8	34.2	45.0	-	562	2	2.78	1.4

 

[lexxnchloe]

2 nd from the right is daily snow

 

[NCSNOW]

Yea that sleet storm in 87 was a monster. It was like walking in beach sand. The sleet was around for weeks too.

Had lightening as well.

 

[LickWx]

Feb 87 Looks better than most winter months. They dont break out sleet from snow

1987-02-01	58	24	41.0	-1.7	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-02	47	42	44.5	1.6	20	0	0.15	0.0	0
1987-02-03	61	40	50.5	7.5	14	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-04	55	35	45.0	1.9	20	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-05	48	29	38.5	-4.8	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-06	60	24	42.0	-1.4	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-07	61	40	50.5	6.9	14	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-08	65	32	48.5	4.7	16	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-09	41	25	33.0	-10.9	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-10	56	26	41.0	-3.1	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-11	59	25	42.0	-2.3	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-12	69	32	50.5	6.1	14	0	T	0.0	0
1987-02-13	58	32	45.0	0.4	20	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-14	59	33	46.0	1.2	19	0	0.08	0.0	0
1987-02-15	43	33	38.0	-7.0	27	0	T	0.0	0
1987-02-16	36	23	29.5	-15.7	35	0	1.88	4.1	0
1987-02-17	32	26	29.0	-16.4	36	0	0.28	0.9	5
1987-02-18	35	28	31.5	-14.1	33	0	T	0.0	5
1987-02-19	45	24	34.5	-11.3	30	0	0.00	0.0	4
1987-02-20	51	24	37.5	-8.5	27	0	0.00	0.0	4
1987-02-21	48	29	38.5	-7.7	26	0	0.00	0.0	3
1987-02-22	38	26	32.0	-14.4	33	0	0.76	0.0	2
1987-02-23	53	34	43.5	-3.1	21	0	0.08	0.0	1
1987-02-24	50	27	38.5	-8.3	26	0	0.00	0.0	T
1987-02-25	50	29	39.5	-7.5	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-26	48	29	38.5	-8.7	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
1987-02-27	42	32	37.0	-10.5	28	0	1.53	5.2	2
1987-02-28	58	34	46.0	-1.7	19	0	0.76	0.0	2
Sum	1426	837	-	-	681	0	5.52	10.2	-
Average	50.9	29.9	40.4	-4.6	-	-	-	-	1.0
Normal	55.8	34.2	45.0	-	562	2	2.78	1.4

What’s the location

 

[lexxnchloe]

What’s the location

Raleigh. The last column is the amount of snow(or sleet) remaining on the ground

 

[ColdAMO]

The sleet in 87 was 2 days. On the second day we had heavy sleet and wind with temps in the teens that morning. I remember wral had windchills in the negative single digits. The sleet+cold wind would really sting any exposed skin.

 

[JHS]

Didn’t one of those February ‘87 storms give Raleigh something like 6-8” of sleet?

Yeah, I think it did. That one started as rain here but turned over to sleet. We got around 2 inches of sleet here from it, but areas northeast of me got more because the CAD hit them 1st and more precip fell with cold air in place. The NWS busted big time calling for only rain in upstate SC with it. I do not know what they saw, but I remember it was around 36-37 with rain here as I went to school, while GSO was already down to 27 even before any precip got there. By 2pm or so, we had dropped to 24, while GSO had gone into the teens.

 

[JHS]

1987 was a banner year for GVL North.
I know Anderson got a good snow in Jan.
GVL got a foot..
We had a big sleet storm in Feb.
First time we got snow in April in my life that year also.
85 N got an Inch the closer you got to the NC border in GVL county the totals went up drastically..
Parts of the NC mountains got 2-3 feet.
I'm very surprised at the lack of video or even pictures from any of the storms of 1987.
Mt Pisgah had WLOS transmitter on top,
Got over 30 inches if memory serves in that April storm.

The Spring Snowstorm of April 2-5, 1987

www.weather.gov

The surprise snowstorm of April 1987

In April 1987 a surprise winter weather hit North Carolina.

spectrumlocalnews.com

If that low had tracked farther south more of us would have got in on that April storm. If I remember right the low tracked close to I-85 and while it was 50 or so here, Asheville was being pounded with snow. Some snow fell in the mountains right on through that weekend, finally ending on Sunday evening.

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah, I think it did. That one started as rain here but turned over to sleet. We got around 2 inches of sleet here from it, but areas northeast of me got more because the CAD hit them 1st and more precip fell with cold air in place. The NWS busted big time calling for only rain in upstate SC with it. I do not know what they saw, but I remember it was around 36-37 with rain here as I went to school, while GSO was already down to 27 even before any precip got there. By 2pm or so, we had dropped to 24, while GSO had gone into the teens.

Yeah I remember that the sleet started in Concord while buses were on the road that morning and it was covering the roads right away… when schools were announced closed, many buses got to schools only to be told to turn around and take kids home

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Stormdoc]

Last nights Euro had the same feature, it just did not dig it nearly as SW

 

[KyloG]

Allan had put this MJO composites together years ago and still great value.

MJO.html

Jan ph6 composite matches up quite well with the ensembles.




Feb ph7 looks solid and is matching up with what the ensembles are hinting at.

 

[KyloG]

The reason why I brought up 1987 yesterday as it fooled around in ph7 most of Feb and we saw how great Feb 87 was. Maybe lightning can strike twice.

 

[Rain Cold]

The reason why I brought up 1987 yesterday as it fooled around in ph7 most of Feb and we saw how great Feb 87 was. Maybe lightning can strike twice.

View attachment 143170

What must it have been like for the MJO to actually be on the left side of the chart during winter. SMH

 

[KyloG]

What must it have been like for the MJO to actually be on the left side of the chart during winter. SMH

And we wonder why end of Jan and Feb 2010 was so good

 

[CaryWx]

Yep, was in 8!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Keep fooling around with this look

 

[SASQUATCH]

Keep fooling around with this look View attachment 143179

FAFO?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Definition of split flow right here with a eqt shifted pac jet

 

[KyloG]

Definition of split flow right here with a eqt shifted pac jet View attachment 143180

Southern stream parade set up.

Dare I say it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Chazwin]

And we wonder why end of Jan and Feb 2010 was so good

View attachment 143172

But this was just one factor that… we also had a very strong west based -NAO coupled with a slightly +PNA.

 

[KyloG]

But this was just one factor that… we also had a very strong west based -NAO coupled with a slightly +PNA.

It's all intertwined..driven by MJO/ENSO state. Jan 2010 had a major SSW helped by the big npac low in Dec which was driven by ENSO/MJO. It's all dependent.

 

[iGRXY]

Southern stream parade set up.

Dare I say it

View attachment 143182

CAD galore

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 143183View attachment 143184View attachment 143185View attachment 143186

The rare CAD Miller A combo. No SER with the -NAO and a screaming southern Stream

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So much wedging this GFS run. Lol

 

[Oconeexman]

So much wedging this GFS run. Lol View attachment 143187View attachment 143188View attachment 143189

Endless possibilities with that look. Hopefully EPs agrees and we have a great stretch of wx!

 

[SD]

The WC ridge eruption late in the gfs is a beauty

 

[KyloG]

The WC ridge eruption late in the gfs is a beauty

The blocking day 10+ on the Canadian ens is really sick too...

 

[SD]

The blocking day 10+ on the Canadian ens is really sick too...

I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.

 

[iGRXY]

Central Canada Ridging with Ridging starting to poke in Greenland. Nice deep trough in the 50/50 Regions and a very active southern stream. All of those heights in Canada and the midwest will build HP with a nice cold air feed to easts east. This is a very interesting look for those of us East of the mountains.

 

[KyloG]

I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.

CMC-e and GFS-e have high pressuring traversing the arctic, we obviously need the pacific to improve some but if the atlantic can help this is looking promising for mid-Feb and on.

 

[rburrel2]

I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.

Yea. The GFS has virtually no support from it's ensembles either. Almost all of them develop a massive/crawling spinning low over the central plains instead of undercutting the ridge in the 240-300hr timeframe.

I'm fine accepting that fate though. It seems like it'll be a delayed not denied situation, where even if we don't get that pattern as quick as the GFS shows, it should come soon after.

 

[BullCityWx]

Some of the members of the CFS and the GFS Extended control were trapping the PV underneath the ridge last night.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

So much wedging this GFS run. Lol View attachment 143187View attachment 143188View attachment 143189

These are the graphics we like. We want to see these MSLP setups for the next 40 days straight. Bring it

 

[SD]

The euro undercutting at D10 might be the best thing I'll see all day

 

[CaryWx]

The euro undercutting at D10 might be the best thing I'll see all day

pictures?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[BullCityWx]

I think this is going to be a better EPS run - not quite where we want it but it took a decent step.

 

[Mitch West]