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Pattern February 2024

CltNative90 said:
This is the second year in a row I’ve booked a mountain vacation for the first weekend in February a long ways out. With a vacation scheduled, my focus is and was on a specific time frame. Looking back at last year, I remember the roller coaster of possibilities - models and ensembles first looked warm and rainy a couple weeks out, then showed a possible winter storm, then went back to warm, and so on. It ended up being cold and dry while I was there, probably the second coldest stretch of the winter besides the one around Christmas 22. That wasn’t presented on the models until a few days out, and while I didn’t get to see snow falling, I still took a day trip up to higher elevations and saw snow on the ground- the only snow I’d see all last winter.

I’m trying this go round not to get down or overly excited about anything this far out. While a lot of this hobby is about dwelling on the future, the eventual outcome is going to be the same no matter what the models show two weeks, one week or one day in advance. Looking at models provides entertainment for all of us, good or bad, but it’s also important to enjoy the present, whether it’s sunny or rainy, warm or cold, and especially if it’s snowy.
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“This far out”? This far out would mean predicting early spring weather.

Winter is here and now, and not much of it left barring a 1993 type event.
 
Avalanche said:
“This far out”? This far out would mean predicting early spring weather.

Winter is here and now, and not much of it left barring a 1993 type event.
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Yep. Need to get out and enjoy the winter weather while we have it. Ensembles agree at this point that the weather during early February looks like early Spring. The premise of my earlier post was not that the models or ensembles are wrong, but that there will inevitably be variability between now and early February, and while it’s entertaining to look at and discuss/ complain about/ declare as fact specific details of each individual run, the end product is rarely if ever exactly what is shown 240 or 300 hours out. I was just using my own experience and observation from last year to back this up, since what was being advertised by the models 2 weeks out ended up completely different from what verified in reality.

Below are two trend GIFs of the GEFS. The first is for 12z on January 30th and the second is for 0z on February 2nd. Last 6 runs. What I see is a lot of moving pieces that are changing each run.

B360B996-0A7C-486F-8CD1-C03316E4502B.gif
EC1C21A2-7D84-4EA8-976D-1372A261BBF6.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 142941
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You know there have certainly been some impressive storms that occurred during a short 4-5 day window like these ensembles are showing…February 1989 comes to mind and honestly February 2014 happened after highs in the 60s on the 2/9, cold front dropped through on the 10th, smaller storm on the 11th, big storm on 12th and 13th, then back close to 50 on the 14th and then well into the 50s on the 15th.
 
Flotown said:
bamwx says winter comes back between feb 5 to 10th he says we aint done
..
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JB - leans more towards 15ish when winter comes back. But could come back in a vengeance with the cold air centered in the east this time.


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