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Pattern February 2024

Mitch West said:
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More of this please. Increasing ridging over AK or pulling the CAN ridge back west allows for more cold energy to be directed down the eastern side of the ridge into the eastern US. This in turn should set up a pretty nice wave train at least across SE can into the natl which could help be the catalyst for flexing the NAO -. You can see that action on this r2r change plot. After looking pretty bad for days it's good to see some instability in the eps. That monster omega block with the ridge axis over the eastern US wouldn't have been the death of winter but it would have put it in the hospital
 
Chazwin said:
This might be a stupid question and this is something I seldom worry about at this range, but is that the type of set up that can squash all of the energy too far south in the GOM?
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It's very possible at least for a time. This setup is going to be fun to watch from a weather nerd perspective but those wanting to see purples and model snow its going to struggle to watch. That ridge axis location, how waves break down the eastern side, any CAD influence, the pac jet momentum and eastward extent are all going to combine for a huge spectrum of outcomes from potential snow, to cold and dry, to mundane and normal, to warm and wet, to near record highs.
 
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SD said:
More of this please. Increasing ridging over AK or pulling the CAN ridge back west allows for more cold energy to be directed down the eastern side of the ridge into the eastern US. This in turn should set up a pretty nice wave train at least across SE can into the natl which could help be the catalyst for flexing the NAO -. You can see that action on this r2r change plot. After looking pretty bad for days it's good to see some instability in the eps. That monster omega block with the ridge axis over the eastern US wouldn't have been the death of winter but it would have put it in the hospital
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It’s beneficial as well that wavelengths start shortening over the next couple of weeks which allows room for a more amplified pattern in general. Last late spring/summer was a good example of the omega block in Canada being good for - departures across the east, and the reason why Memorial Day I was nearly suicidal
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s beneficial as well that wavelengths start shortening over the next couple of weeks which allows room for a more amplified pattern in general. Last late spring/summer was a good example of the omega block in Canada being good for - departures across the east, and the reason why Memorial Day I was nearly suicidal
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Memorial Day weekend last year for us in the Carolinas was absolutely miserable. We deserve the payoff after that for the similar set up in February to give us a huge dump of snow.
 
Chazwin said:
Memorial Day weekend last year for us in the Carolinas was absolutely miserable. We deserve the payoff after that for the similar set up in February to give us a huge dump of snow.
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That weekend was so awful. We were like 30 degrees below normal that weekend. Absolutely awful. I hope this upcoming one is in the upper 90s. That’s another form of revenge. May cutoffs suck
 
Snowlover87 said:
Upper 70s in Atlanta that weekend. I can’t imagine Charlotte being that much colder.
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We were completely wedged in that weekend in the CLT area. Temperatures fell into the 50s overnight on Friday and stayed there with on/off light rain and drizzle through Sunday night. Just a miserable weekend. The sun finally broke through on Memorial Day itself in time to get us up close to 70.
 
I'm still not really convinced of the "big torch" pattern in early Feb that's been discussed on social media, esp over the SE US and coastal mid-Atlantic. Mild maybe, but unseasonably so? I doubt it outside the Great Lakes, south-central Canada & Midwest.

Pacific jet is extending yes, but it's also shifting equatorward, which opens the door for troughs to cut underneath, esp in El Niño years like this.

Active southern stream w/ a Canadian blocking ridge over the top & a sneaky trough lurking off the East Coast & Atlantic Canada is usually how you get cold air damming.
 
This jet ext is more of a hit-and-run and doesn't look as bad as the one in late Dec. Low pressure moves west to east across Asia in the Jan 27-Feb 2 timeframe which helps with the pullback downstream

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BullCityWx said:
Okay cool
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I mean, I like the pretty image, but we've seen similar images more than a few times this winter, along with commentary about how we used to laugh people off of boards for posting 384 GFS maps in the main threads. I do hope it's right.
 
Really the trend we want to see the next couple of days since there’s plenty of time (and if you want to score in this type of pattern consisting of the Canadian ridge/omega block, Is a shortening of wavelengths, and most importantly in this setup is getting some pieces of northern stream/a TPV extension to dig down and phase with the energy in the Atlantic, preferably around and S/SW of Atlantic Canada, tilt the ridge axis slightly more positive in order to suppress the height field further, and a stronger ATL trough in general to suppress any subtropical ridge influence. Biggest thing I wanna see right now is to continue backing up those lower heights in the Atlantic and deepening it around Atlantic Canada, and getting a better N/S fetch to inject a valid cold source into the Atlantic trough and would be trailing high. Ens still look warm in general, but the 00z EPS and especially 06z GEFS made some strides for the better. A lot of these damming setups often show up in the medium range anyways A109C433-B9F6-425E-BC68-F354DEB6CE95.jpeg
 
There's been very little support for wintry on the GEFS members, but that's roughly like 8 of the last 10 GFS runs that has showed a CAD winter storm 300+ hours out, (06z run didn't). Prior to this stretch the GFS has been very stingy with fantasy storms showing basically none at all most of the winter.

Seems like a solid signal that something might be brewing, I just hope the ensembles catch on to the threat soon.

Either way I've got a feeling if we miss out on this one, the following week should be rife with opportunities as well.
 
rburrel2 said:
There's been very little support for wintry on the GEFS members, but that's roughly like 8 of the last 10 GFS runs that has showed a CAD winter storm 300+ hours out, (06z run didn't). Prior to this stretch the GFS has been very stingy with fantasy storms showing basically none at all most of the winter.

Seems like a solid signal that something might be brewing, I just hope the ensembles catch on to the threat soon.

Either way I've got a feeling if we miss out on this one, the following week should be rife with opportunities as well.
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This is a solid notice. I've mentioned a couple times that since I would say last Winter, the GFS has really got a hold of itself with dishing out fantasy runs left & right. I think as you said, we MIGHT be able to respect noise 300+ hours out on the GFS a little more IF something does play out in that timeframe of interest showing up.
 
Rain Cold said:
I mean, I like the pretty image, but we've seen similar images more than a few times this winter, along with commentary about how we used to laugh people off of boards for posting 384 GFS maps in the main threads. I do hope it's right.
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Are you just going to say that every time something positive is posted in the extended time? Why? We get it, you don't believe any of them. Ok.
 
Order #: 111-3877115-9554608

Cold Rain, I must agree with you. I have watched for years and have commented several times that a lot of folks are wishing our lives away with a 10 day forecast that never makes it 10 days. Yes I am in the same row boat as many I hope that it comes THRU !
 
Stormlover said:
Are you just going to say that every time something positive is posted in the extended time? Why? We get it, you don't believe any of them. Ok.
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He,
We East of the Apps have a right to be skeptical at this point.
He's not saying it won't or can't happen.
Just take everything with skepticism until we close in on 72 hours then you can really start to buy in...
Maybe us East of the Apps ppl want to see actual frozen precip falling & sticking before we completely buy in...
Being skeptical is a Self defense mechanism at some point.
 
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