This thread is dogshit. Keep ruining the whamby thread and keep this ---- out of an actual thread
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
rburrel2
Member
We're toast through February 6/7th. That might be a record for perfect agreement. EPS looks the same too. Might be time to step away from the computer for a week.
Very nice progression from the cfs weekly version on tidbits
20 days seems about right so 2/10ish
Lol sheesh we suck. I’m going back to looking at the 10 day forecast off the weather channel. ?
TC messing with RMM phase charts use VP charts
well that's butt ugly. still holding out hope it doesn't bend after the 27th
We always want to blame TC interference when we don’t get the MJO chart we want. If that’s the case then we should get a wild swing in extended modeling.
I meannnn
By the time we get that look wrt main rising over the whem, it’s towards the latter half of the respective ens runs, so something at H5 wouldnt verbatim show up yet
You are showing a bunch of ph6-7 and by end of EPS run it’s a muddled ph6/7. I guess we can agree day 10+ is a lot of unknown so that way the cup half full people will feel good.
Yea I guess
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wouldn't bet the farm on it happening yet, but there's a real chance of CAD when you get a pattern like this.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm personally skeptical of the big torch pattern in early Feb for much of the SE US (esp Carolinas).
Sure it looks generally mild overall, but I've seen so many long range warm patterns like this turn into cloudy, chilly CADs. This is a very conspicuous pattern here w/ a trough lurking near Atlantic Canada & the Pacific jet extending and undercutting a progressive block over south-central Canada. That's usually how you get sneaky CADs to show up in the medium range in Nino winters.
Unlike the late January warm pattern, the ridge in early February is not rooted in the subtropics, which means you're prone to undercutting it w/ sneaky southern stream waves. Notice on the GEFS mean the 500mb ridge is nosing up from the Bahamas in late January, whereas in early February, it's squashed into S America.
Sure it looks generally mild overall, but I've seen so many long range warm patterns like this turn into cloudy, chilly CADs. This is a very conspicuous pattern here w/ a trough lurking near Atlantic Canada & the Pacific jet extending and undercutting a progressive block over south-central Canada. That's usually how you get sneaky CADs to show up in the medium range in Nino winters.
Unlike the late January warm pattern, the ridge in early February is not rooted in the subtropics, which means you're prone to undercutting it w/ sneaky southern stream waves. Notice on the GEFS mean the 500mb ridge is nosing up from the Bahamas in late January, whereas in early February, it's squashed into S America.
Are you saying CAD with respect to possible getting sneaky winter events or saying CAD in that we won t be highs in the 60-70’s?
