CNCsnwfan1210
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Southern Track
Member
START THE THREAD THE FANTASY RUNS ARE BACK FAB FEBRUARY IS INEVITABLE.
There’s a reason we are getting interesting runs. That H5 pattern coming up is wedge happy. Looks warm now on ens but the mean ridge over Canada and the Great Lakes normally results in wedges 
This past dec was impressive up there as well
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Fairly big difference between GEFS/EPS...let's hope EPS is right, would fit right into the mid Feb flip.
Rossby wave train printer go brrr. That’s Gonna seed into the upcoming -NAO. But that’s a cool ass omega block. Looks like what we had all of last May/June which completely ruined Memorial Day last year with cold air damming
iGRXY
Member
Like I said before, all this talk about a torch .. we would figure out a way to go right into a CAD pattern. Raised heights over the NE and Canada, Lower heights over the Northern Atlantic. Get ready for lots of upper 30's and lower 40 cloudy and misty days.
Bet the initial process goes warm this week, then next week we prob get some damming days as we lose connection to the subtropics, but warm days mixed in, then things get more seasonal as the subtropical jet starts to undercut the Canadian ridging and the longwave pattern becomes -tilt out west so we lose connection to any subtropical ridging, we get a plethora of -NAMT which slows down the Atlantic jet, the lower heights in the Atlantic encourage a ATR, and with each southern stream wave that undercuts and breaks, it goes into the development of a -NAO. I’m more confident on that. I think what’s more questionable is the pacific. Do we stay extended for a while ? Or do we retrograde the GOAK low to the Aleutian Islands. On ensembles, it backs up as the undercutting begins, but to me that’s tbd 
Definitely cautious with the longer range ensembles because I think they have just been to fast with everything pattern wise, but they basically do what I expect overall. The big ridge in Canada eventually becomes a -NAO as wavebreaking occurs, the pac trough backs up to the Aleutian Islands.
The NAO graphs are starting to do what we saw in the late part of December looking forward to the previous cold period - they are going more strongly negative than positive with the spread later on in the runs.
sometime in February is probably gonna have a KU look/pattern. Just too common with Feb ninos. Question is do we score or does the mid Atlantic score off that
Yeah my concern is the winning being to our north but it's easy to envision a pattern toward mid Feb that could push snow well well south and suppression be a concern for some of us
Heelyes
Member
Lows below 50? Sounds like a win?
We can hope...priority #1 is snow...priority #2 let's enjoy the cool/cold nights for as long as possible. We will have lows in the 70's before we know it.
Just wanted to compliment you on your ability to recognize patterns at every level,
Esp the 500 level.
Your understanding and ability to read models is off the charts.
You've done it consistently so long at such a young age,
You actually have a wisdom to the progressions and setups.
You're a huge asset here.
I hope your getting your meteorology degree.
If not,
It should be thought about in a serious manner.
It appears to some of us lurkers that this is your calling.
Thank you for being here.
This is a sincere post.
??
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