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Pattern February 2024

griteater said:
Hopefully we have multiple chances between early Feb to mid-Mar, but who knows. 1 chance would be a start for us east of the Apps. But yeah, the weeklies try to move things into a better pattern by kicking that SW trough east while building an AK ridge. We actually need some renewed momentum in the Pac Jet to do that because the initial big jet extension coming in a few days dies out.

Just looking at the surface anomaly charts here on the weeklies from Feb 3 to 23, it is showing low pressure in EAsia being replaced with high pressure (+EAMT), and shortly thereafter, the Pac Jet extends and the Aleutian Low swells and moves east...then the southern stream across the CONUS becomes active again. Long way out of course, but that Feb 17-23 timeframe has the best look at the moment IMO.

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I was a little bummed to see today's EPS run losing the -AO...hopefully just a blip. As you pointed out the models evolve the pattern nicely but still by day 15 there is still much work that needs to be done.

If we get to Feb 5-10th and we still aren't seeing a more conducive pattern being modeled in the day 10-15 I will be ready to throw in the towel on this winter.

In the past 20 years (2005-2024) we've only had 2 Feb events in nino's 1"+....so we really have sucked in Feb nino's.

february_25-26_2015_nc_snowmap.png


february_12-13_2010_nc_snowmap.gif
 
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As mentioned above...EPS lost the -AO...hopefully just a blip. The weeklies have been showing a solid -AO in early Feb for several weeks but that was based on the 0z EPS run. Let's hope the 12z was just a blip.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_dprog-7220800.png
 
I knew the D10 Euro pattern looked to be heading towards familiar territory. Dealing extensively with the Canadian wildfires this past summer, this pattern was persistent for much of June. (June '23 was a top 10-15th coldest on record for much of the Mid-Atlantic).

compday.jmSB7w0HmR.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7048000.png
 
1300m said:
I knew the D10 Euro pattern looked to be heading towards familiar territory. Dealing extensively with the Canadian wildfires this past summer, this pattern was persistent for much of June. (June '23 was a top 10-15th coldest on record for much of the Mid-Atlantic).

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Yeah Fro mentioned earlier about how this type of pattern set up that strong wedge last year over Memorial Day weekend and kept much of western and central NC in the 50s during the day.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
trend the last 24 hours. Can’t ask for much more, but we need more. Gotta like that trend around SE Canada View attachment 143369
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I've probably said this here before but I'll say it again. This is so reminiscent to Feb 2015 where the models would consistently lengthen wavelengths in the D7+ then gradually shorten them as we got closer in time. Obviously this setup is different but there are a lot of the same principles
 
KyloG said:
We buying this

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pawn-stars-yes.gif
 
griteater said:
Hopefully we have multiple chances between early Feb to mid-Mar, but who knows. 1 chance would be a start for us east of the Apps. But yeah, the weeklies try to move things into a better pattern by kicking that SW trough east while building an AK ridge. We actually need some renewed momentum in the Pac Jet to do that because the initial big jet extension coming in a few days dies out.

Just looking at the surface anomaly charts here on the weeklies from Feb 3 to 23, it is showing low pressure in EAsia being replaced with high pressure (+EAMT), and shortly thereafter, the Pac Jet extends and the Aleutian Low swells and moves east...then the southern stream across the CONUS becomes active again. Long way out of course, but that Feb 17-23 timeframe has the best look at the moment IMO.

View attachment 143358


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By the way, here is what today's Euro Weeklies Control run looked like for Feb 17-24

Jan 25 Euro Wk Ctrl 500.png

Jan 25 Euro Wk Ctrl 850.png
 
BullCityWx said:
For a smoothed out ensemble mean that’s 180 hours out, that sort of move is huge
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Yeah this right now is probably one of the strongest signals for a strong CAD at this lead time I’ve ever seen. Honestly it reminds a little bit of how strong the CAD signal was in February 2014… the ensembles were catching onto that wedge 10 days and it only got stronger
 
KyloG said:
Still work to do but it’s getting there…we buying. Would setup a good back half

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Nice seeing the end of the regular GEFS with similar pattern ideas as the extended modeling....i.e. SW trough kicking east as Low pressure in EAsia flips to high pressure and momentum is added into the Pac Jet

Jan 25 GEFS 500.gif

Jan 25 GEFS Sfc.gif
 
Mainly this. Need that energy in Canada to be separated and have some ridging in between them, the more ridging that pushed poleward the better. that then starts the domino effect of stuff diving down and interacting with the weakness in the ATL, at 12z it was far more separated, and allowed it to dive and dig quicker, cool how this trickles to something around D10 though 64C49030-708E-4790-B73A-BED13051DC10.jpegC0BEDB29-9B00-4229-BBFC-647E1865F56D.pngCD6B2B20-61E8-4229-BC8E-1044DCC68305.gif316B9466-80D4-4391-B343-C89809EA4C3C.png
 
The run to run swings on the day 10 threat are wild. 06z GFS giving us a completely new look with regards to the blocking and TPV location. Probably the best run yet, just a little suppressive.

It's a shame the clipper style shortwave dropping down at day 5 has no low level cold air to work with, it seems to be trending towards something. Maybe the mountains can score with it at least. I'm not giving up hope imby on it either, Seems sort of similar to the February 2021 storm. If we can get -3C 850s with it we can get snow to the ground even with the boundary layer problems.
 
rburrel2 said:
The run to run swings on the day 10 threat are wild. 06z GFS giving us a completely new look with regards to the blocking and TPV location. Probably the best run yet, just a little suppressive.

It's a shame the clipper style shortwave dropping down at day 5 has no low level cold air to work with, it seems to be trending towards something. Maybe the mountains can score with it at least. I'm not giving up hope imby on it either, Seems sort of similar to the February 2021 storm. If we can get -3C 850s with it we can get snow to the ground even with the boundary layer problems.
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IMO the type of blocking, setting up over central Canada, is going to cause us to continue to see some wild swings on these op models and some fairly wide spreads on the ensembles.
 
The whole day 10ish system is reliant on undercutting the ridge and pinching the block off over the northern plains south Canada. If it does we are in the game if it doesn't its a normalish temperature regime and we are waiting for the eventual western ridge to kick the SW trough E (see the 0z geps and 6z gefs). The 12z eps snow means we're really buoyed by a massive member for a good many of us in the Carolinas, that is gone with the 0z runs but the quantity of low end snow hits actually looks like it went up. Touch and go essentially all or nothing setups are pain run to run
 
SD said:
The whole day 10ish system is reliant on undercutting the ridge and pinching the block off over the northern plains south Canada. If it does we are in the game if it doesn't its a normalish temperature regime and we are waiting for the eventual western ridge to kick the SW trough E (see the 0z geps and 6z gefs). The 12z eps snow means we're really buoyed by a massive member for a good many of us in the Carolinas, that is gone with the 0z runs but the quantity of low end snow hits actually looks like it went up. Touch and go essentially all or nothing setups are pain run to run
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Yeah looking about 2/9ish to get that movement. We just gotta hope it transpires that way and doesn’t delay
 
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