I really wish the mid to late week clipper had a colder airmass to work with.
If ifs were fifths we’d all be drunkI really wish the mid to late week clipper had a colder airmass to work with.
I'm starting to get a little antsy and concerned about a delayYeah looking about 2/9ish to get that movement. We just gotta hope it transpires that way and doesn’t delay
We certainly can’t afford it. I know for the last 10 days I’ve been watching it to move forward in models and hasn’t happened yet. Weeklies and extended continue to advertise it but we are already putting all our chips in a 2 week window.I'm starting to get a little antsy and concerned about a delay
Yep, we're in troubleI'm starting to get a little antsy and concerned about a delay
Oh well. There’s always next year.Yep, we're in trouble
There's also one more fairly big needle to thread (my image is at 171 and yours is at 180, but I don't think that matters all that much in this case):Well the icon is a huge improvement over the 00z run. Appears to be setting up a 50/50 and hopefully far enough east to get precip in to our area from the undercutting jet.
One problem with this threat is we're having to thread two needles. We need the strong PV lobe, but then we need it positioned so that it doesn't squash/deflect the energy pouring out of the Southwest. So basically, about like every setup we always have, haha.View attachment 143419
RC that's a Junior Varsity Met observation. Haven't you heard before, "It will make its own cold air" and " the rates will trump warm ground temps"There's also one more fairly big needle to thread (my image is at 171 and yours is at 180, but I don't think that matters all that much in this case):
Honestly I would’ve rather had the torch if it meant snow later on. I’d take that trade off all day. I know there’s no correlation, just saying.
GFS week 2 has trended better for blocking...op run so grain of salt but past 5 runs
View attachment 143429
1960 huh? Apparently Feb and March were amazing, looking at maps the entire state got in on the action at one point or another? View attachment 143444
We are starting to pull some really tasty analogs out from the gefs pattern
1960
1969
1981
1983
Dang homie we can't have February at least? Sheesh.I know this isn’t a popular opinion but after January 31 I’m done with wishing for cold and frozen precip. Give me 55-70 deg highs in Feb. I’m ready for golf/fishing weather
Dang and this is before the good pattern even kicks in? Sign me up.
Looks like there were 2 separate waves between 222 and 240
That isn't CAD necessarily it's an entire cold press across both sides of the mountains because of the high placement being so far west with the cold being further west than normal too. That kind of look you can send a low through and someone would likely see a nice overrunning event.Look at the CAD working in.
View attachment 143458
That is a good point. Same push on the Western side of the Apps. But that initial push does look like a small scale CAD look.That isn't CAD necessarily it's an entire cold press across both sides of the mountains because of the high placement being so far west with the cold being further west than normal too. That kind of look you can send a low through and someone would likely see a nice overrunning event.