I really wish the mid to late week clipper had a colder airmass to work with.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
I'm starting to get a little antsy and concerned about a delay
Cary_Snow95
Member
Tarheelwx
Member
I think weeklies are just an extension of bad long range models. We've been showing the holy grail on weeklies since December I believe.
TW
TW
Nam0806
Member
Oh well. There’s always next year.
rburrel2
Member
Well the icon is a huge improvement over the 00z run. Appears to be setting up a 50/50 and hopefully far enough east to get precip in to our area from the undercutting jet.
One problem with this threat is we're having to thread two needles. We need the strong PV lobe, but then we need it positioned so that it doesn't squash/deflect the energy pouring out of the Southwest. So basically, about like every setup we always have, haha.
One problem with this threat is we're having to thread two needles. We need the strong PV lobe, but then we need it positioned so that it doesn't squash/deflect the energy pouring out of the Southwest. So basically, about like every setup we always have, haha.
For good or ill, the pattern past six days is as uncertain as I ever recall seeing it. Let's see if the other 12Z modeling flips like a landed fish this morning too.
Seems like patterns often take longer to change than expected, sometimes for good and sometimes for bad. As it is, any delay puts us into the second half of February, where we’re really going to have to hope for a repeat of 2015 or 1960 or else we’re going to be doomed.
There's also one more fairly big needle to thread (my image is at 171 and yours is at 180, but I don't think that matters all that much in this case):
That's a monster wedge building south on the icon
But this look to the west leaves a lot to be desired
But this look to the west leaves a lot to be desired
NCSNOW
Member
RC that's a Junior Varsity Met observation. Haven't you heard before, "It will make its own cold air" and " the rates will trump warm ground temps"
What a mess
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The supposed "torch" pattern in early Feb continues to get beaten down
Honestly I would’ve rather had the torch if it meant snow later on. I’d take that trade off all day. I know there’s no correlation, just saying.
Gefs looks better
rburrel2
Member
Best run yet for actually showing winter storms. Also a few ice storm members not shown on the snow mean below.
Hello friends
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Classic CAD look here at 500mb with active southern stream undercutting a slow eastward moving Canadian ridge & 50-50 low. Just need some minor tweaks to the longwave pattern in the medium range & a properly timed wave in the southern plains
? 
We are starting to pull some really tasty analogs out from the gefs pattern
1960
1969
1981
1983
We are starting to pull some really tasty analogs out from the gefs pattern
1960
1969
1981
1983
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That’s actually the best gefs run yet, looking at H5 
Feb 3/4th was the day models have been trying to take the AO negative. GFS sticking with that.
I wish the GEFS had this also with ice. I'd be really interested in seeing a freezing rain mean.
ghost1
Member
I know this isn’t a popular opinion but after January 31 I’m done with wishing for cold and frozen precip. Give me 55-70 deg highs in Feb. I’m ready for golf/fishing weather
def a unique look here. And we like our cold air sourced out of SE Canada. Idk where we go from here but it’s at least interesting 
Dang homie we can't have February at least? Sheesh.
Well I just assumed the Euro must not be promising in fantasy range. I assumed wrong.
Dang and this is before the good pattern even kicks in? Sign me up.
This is an unusually complex situation. If you get an Omega block setup like this, unusual things could happen. But it is beyond silly to even think the deterministic guidance will have a chance of resolving this beyond D5.
Tarheelwx
Member
Still it just doesn't look that cold. For now, I think we'd be more like to get snow or sleet vs. any freezing rain. Maybe the cold comes later.
TW
TW
First wave doesn't work, wave behind it with a CAD that just got done working in might would do it. Looks great for a timeframe that personally I would consider a bonus if anything happens.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looks like there were 2 separate waves between 222 and 240
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Look at the CAD working in.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That isn't CAD necessarily it's an entire cold press across both sides of the mountains because of the high placement being so far west with the cold being further west than normal too. That kind of look you can send a low through and someone would likely see a nice overrunning event.
That is a good point. Same push on the Western side of the Apps. But that initial push does look like a small scale CAD look.