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Pattern February 2024

I'm starting to get a little antsy and concerned about a delay
We certainly can’t afford it. I know for the last 10 days I’ve been watching it to move forward in models and hasn’t happened yet. Weeklies and extended continue to advertise it but we are already putting all our chips in a 2 week window.
 
Well the icon is a huge improvement over the 00z run. Appears to be setting up a 50/50 and hopefully far enough east to get precip in to our area from the undercutting jet.

One problem with this threat is we're having to thread two needles. We need the strong PV lobe, but then we need it positioned so that it doesn't squash/deflect the energy pouring out of the Southwest. So basically, about like every setup we always have, haha.Screen Shot 2024-01-26 at 10.48.58 AM.png
 
For good or ill, the pattern past six days is as uncertain as I ever recall seeing it. Let's see if the other 12Z modeling flips like a landed fish this morning too.
icon_z500_mslp_us_61.png

icon_z500_mslp_us_55.png
 
Seems like patterns often take longer to change than expected, sometimes for good and sometimes for bad. As it is, any delay puts us into the second half of February, where we’re really going to have to hope for a repeat of 2015 or 1960 or else we’re going to be doomed.
 
Well the icon is a huge improvement over the 00z run. Appears to be setting up a 50/50 and hopefully far enough east to get precip in to our area from the undercutting jet.

One problem with this threat is we're having to thread two needles. We need the strong PV lobe, but then we need it positioned so that it doesn't squash/deflect the energy pouring out of the Southwest. So basically, about like every setup we always have, haha.View attachment 143419
There's also one more fairly big needle to thread (my image is at 171 and yours is at 180, but I don't think that matters all that much in this case):

icon_T2m_namer_58.png
 
There's also one more fairly big needle to thread (my image is at 171 and yours is at 180, but I don't think that matters all that much in this case):
RC that's a Junior Varsity Met observation. Haven't you heard before, "It will make its own cold air" and " the rates will trump warm ground temps"
 
? View attachment 143444

We are starting to pull some really tasty analogs out from the gefs pattern
1960
1969
1981
1983
1960 huh? Apparently Feb and March were amazing, looking at maps the entire state got in on the action at one point or another
 
This is an unusually complex situation. If you get an Omega block setup like this, unusual things could happen. But it is beyond silly to even think the deterministic guidance will have a chance of resolving this beyond D5.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-1706270400-1706702400-1707134400-20-3.gif
 
Look at the CAD working in.
View attachment 143458
That isn't CAD necessarily it's an entire cold press across both sides of the mountains because of the high placement being so far west with the cold being further west than normal too. That kind of look you can send a low through and someone would likely see a nice overrunning event.
 
That isn't CAD necessarily it's an entire cold press across both sides of the mountains because of the high placement being so far west with the cold being further west than normal too. That kind of look you can send a low through and someone would likely see a nice overrunning event.
That is a good point. Same push on the Western side of the Apps. But that initial push does look like a small scale CAD look.
 
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