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Pattern February 2024

KyloG said:
We always want to blame TC interference when we don’t get the MJO chart we want. If that’s the case then we should get a wild swing in extended modeling.
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By the time we get that look wrt main rising over the whem, it’s towards the latter half of the respective ens runs, so something at H5 wouldnt verbatim show up yet
 
2005 is an analog to what globals are spitting out for first week of Feb. We don't talk about 2005 nino much...for good reason.

Similar MJO pass...fooled around in 6-7 for much of month.


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I'm personally skeptical of the big torch pattern in early Feb for much of the SE US (esp Carolinas).

Sure it looks generally mild overall, but I've seen so many long range warm patterns like this turn into cloudy, chilly CADs. This is a very conspicuous pattern here w/ a trough lurking near Atlantic Canada & the Pacific jet extending and undercutting a progressive block over south-central Canada. That's usually how you get sneaky CADs to show up in the medium range in Nino winters.

Unlike the late January warm pattern, the ridge in early February is not rooted in the subtropics, which means you're prone to undercutting it w/ sneaky southern stream waves. Notice on the GEFS mean the 500mb ridge is nosing up from the Bahamas in late January, whereas in early February, it's squashed into S America.

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Webberweather53 said:
I'm personally skeptical of the big torch pattern in early Feb for much of the SE US (esp Carolinas).

Sure it looks generally mild overall, but I've seen so many long range warm patterns like this turn into cloudy, chilly CADs. This is a very conspicuous pattern here w/ a trough lurking near Atlantic Canada & the Pacific jet extending and undercutting a progressive block over south-central Canada. That's usually how you get sneaky CADs to show up in the medium range in Nino winters.

Unlike the late January warm pattern, the ridge in early February is not rooted in the subtropics, which means you're prone to undercutting it w/ sneaky southern stream waves. Notice on the GEFS mean the 500mb ridge is nosing up from the Bahamas in late January, whereas in early February, it's squashed into S America.

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Are you saying CAD with respect to possible getting sneaky winter events or saying CAD in that we won t be highs in the 60-70’s?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm personally skeptical of the big torch pattern in early Feb for much of the SE US (esp Carolinas).

Sure it looks generally mild overall, but I've seen so many long range warm patterns like this turn into cloudy, chilly CADs. This is a very conspicuous pattern here w/ a trough lurking near Atlantic Canada & the Pacific jet extending and undercutting a progressive block over south-central Canada. That's usually how you get sneaky CADs to show up in the medium range in Nino winters.

Unlike the late January warm pattern, the ridge in early February is not rooted in the subtropics, which means you're prone to undercutting it w/ sneaky southern stream waves. Notice on the GEFS mean the 500mb ridge is nosing up from the Bahamas in late January, whereas in early February, it's squashed into S America.

View attachment 143036



View attachment 143037
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Webberweather53 said:
I'm personally skeptical of the big torch pattern in early Feb for much of the SE US (esp Carolinas).

Sure it looks generally mild overall, but I've seen so many long range warm patterns like this turn into cloudy, chilly CADs. This is a very conspicuous pattern here w/ a trough lurking near Atlantic Canada & the Pacific jet extending and undercutting a progressive block over south-central Canada. That's usually how you get sneaky CADs to show up in the medium range in Nino winters.

Unlike the late January warm pattern, the ridge in early February is not rooted in the subtropics, which means you're prone to undercutting it w/ sneaky southern stream waves. Notice on the GEFS mean the 500mb ridge is nosing up from the Bahamas in late January, whereas in early February, it's squashed into S America.

View attachment 143036



View attachment 143037
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Yeah this is something I’ve taken a notice of as well. This is a look that screams a lot of CAD… now weather we can sneak out some winter weather with that CAD remains to be seen.
 
Over the next several weeks (from now til mid-late Feb & early March), we're repeating the same overall pattern progression we had in the latter half of December into early-mid January, except the (anomalously) colder pattern on the backend of this Pacific Jet extension will likely last much longer this time around once we get to it (per usual for Ninos).

The difference I see this time that makes me think we'll end up w/ a more persistent cold pattern later in Feb (& possibly lingering into March) is the collapse of the +IOD, which will favor a slower/stronger bout of Indian Ocean subseasonal forcing (whether that's more MJO-like remains to be seen).

Unlike early-mid winter, Indian Ocean convection in February & March actually favors cold in the east-central US.

In essence: subtropical jet wave train & MJO emergence out of the Maritime Continent >> Pacific Jet extension >> "torch" pattern (centered over the Upper Midwest & Lakes) >> momentum loss (via wave breaking) >> -NAO >> cold pattern w/ legit threats for winter storms.

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Webberweather53 said:
Over the next several weeks (from now til mid-late Feb & early March), we're repeating the same overall pattern progression we had in the latter half of December into early-mid January, except the (anomalously) colder pattern on the backend of this Pacific Jet extension will likely last much longer this time around once we get to it (per usual for Ninos).

The difference I see this time that makes me think we'll end up w/ a more persistent cold pattern later in Feb (& possibly lingering into March) is the collapse of the +IOD, which will favor a slower/stronger bout of Indian Ocean subseasonal forcing (whether that's more MJO-like remains to be seen).

Unlike early-mid winter, Indian Ocean convection in February & March actually favors cold in the east-central US.

In essence: subtropical jet wave train & MJO emergence out of the Maritime Continent >> Pacific Jet extension >> "torch" pattern (centered over the Upper Midwest & Lakes) >> momentum loss (via wave breaking) >> -NAO >> cold pattern w/ legit threats for winter storms.

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sounds like good news
 
Webberweather53 said:
Over the next several weeks (from now til mid-late Feb & early March), we're repeating the same overall pattern progression we had in the latter half of December into early-mid January, except the (anomalously) colder pattern on the backend of this Pacific Jet extension will likely last much longer this time around once we get to it (per usual for Ninos).

The difference I see this time that makes me think we'll end up w/ a more persistent cold pattern later in Feb (& possibly lingering into March) is the collapse of the +IOD, which will favor a slower/stronger bout of Indian Ocean subseasonal forcing (whether that's more MJO-like remains to be seen).

Unlike early-mid winter, Indian Ocean convection in February & March actually favors cold in the east-central US.

In essence: subtropical jet wave train & MJO emergence out of the Maritime Continent >> Pacific Jet extension >> "torch" pattern (centered over the Upper Midwest & Lakes) >> momentum loss (via wave breaking) >> -NAO >> cold pattern w/ legit threats for winter storms.

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Appreciate you giving us an update on your thoughts man. We’ve been waiting for your input, I know I have. Hopefully we can have a 2015 style come back this Winter.
 
if we can get a good pattern going round valentines day ,its cool some of my best snows have came in that time here in nortwest bama..
 
Tarheel1 said:
Really amazing how models can mail a 10-15 day heatwave, but can’t get a cold pattern 2 days out
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Dunno seems like the models nailed the last cold shot, in fact they were wrong at one point showing Wall to wall torch then the TPV trended east. But it’s not like how it used to be right. Heat right cold wrong
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... And I will not post anything else from JB, Oh btw his winter forecast doesn't end until March 31st then we can see how much ---- he pushed this winter!! TIA
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He actually has done well with what he predicted. Just don’t have the snow in our area yet. As far as the pattern he has done well. For those that follow his videos get a lot more info than those that follow a tweet. He does well recognizing patterns and always has said that. A lot of flip and flopping on here to when models don’t show what they want. I appreciate you sharing his info. In November he said cold will relax and come back in Feb. interesting as he looks to be on to something.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The very active/negatively tilted & equatorward-displaced storm track in/around N America is a big clue we're about to get a west-based -NAO.
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I remember you saying back in November when we had the first one, it was a good sign that it would return
 
Flotown said:
ole jb aint backing down..overall hes been pretty accurate in my opinion
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Well, ensembles are pretty clearly showing the AO falling off the cliff after it spikes later this week… at the very least that will prevent the SPV from getting wound up and it should stay fairly week. The models seem to match Webb’s thinking on the NAO as well.
 
BullCityWx said:
I remember you saying back in November when we had the first one, it was a good sign that it would return
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You can also see the 18z GEFS is quickly evolving into a big -NAO after Feb 5.

All that westerly momentum in the Pacific Jet that’s creating the mild pattern initially gets used up by large southward-shifted cyclonic wave breaks in/around N America. That process will kickstart a -NAO.

Remember that the -NAO actually is associated with an equatorward shifted storm track in/around N America and N Atlantic. We’re doing just that later in week 2 and even more so into week 3
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can also see the 18z GEFS is quickly evolving into a big -NAO after Feb 5.

All that westerly momentum in the Pacific Jet that’s creating the mild pattern initially gets used up by large southward-shifted cyclonic wave breaks in/around N America. That process will kickstart a -NAO.

Remember that the -NAO actually is associated with an equatorward shifted storm track in/around N America and N Atlantic. We’re doing just that later in week 2 and even more so into week 3
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Another thing is the strong signal for low heights in the western Atlantic and a squashed SER.
 
I was too watching the ensembles thinking the way the ridge was being oriented that we would be pushing to a pretty big -NAO. SER and EC ridges tend to get pushed into Greenland blocking as they progress. It’s just you have to get through 7-10 days of ridging on the EC before you get to that point.
 
iGRXY said:
I was too watching the ensembles thinking the way the ridge was being oriented that we would be pushing to a pretty big -NAO. SER and EC ridges tend to get pushed into Greenland blocking as they progress. It’s just you have to get through 7-10 days of ridging on the EC before you get to that point.
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If you recall, that very thing happened in mid January 2010 and late January/early February 2015… both times it set up some good patterns
 
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