Clearly this is not resolved for it's behavior moving to 6 and 7. Too much noise. We'll know by Monday that behavior a bit better.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SnowNiner
Member
@griteater you got anymore of them jet retractions? Seems like if we can back that thing off we'd be ok. Your fear about it getting over extended so far seems to be modeled long range.
griteater
Member
Big +EAsiaMtnTorq event showing up on the models in the Jan 21-25 period, so yeah, combining that with strong El Nino (and maybe other stuff) gives us the big jet ext into early Feb. I think mid-Feb is a reasonable ballpark for seeing that retract and get wavy out west to potentially go along with another retrograding block. IMO western ridges are typically bolder / more forceful when the jet is in the process of extending or maintaining itself, instead of when it is in the process of retracting. But we'll see.
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Plumes from the 12z gefs and geps aren't nearly as warm as the 500mb mean would lead you to believe. Decent amount of cool to cold clusters in there, the 0z eps was similar
This a time where we could use some good trends with the trough near SE Canada. Imagine digging it around bos 
We've somehow whittled our winter down to the last 7-10 days of Feb. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. ?
I guess one positive is we have a Npac low in a semi-reasonable spot for back half of Feb.
I mean all you gotta do here is trend that trough south and dig it into the NE US, shorten wavelengths and temporarily get heights up around NW can and we got something for areas east of the apps. 
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Eps increased spreads late and more has members with highs at or below freezing late this month and Feb 1.
Tarheelwx
Member
The end of the 12z GFS showed bodacious cold in northern Canada - lots of sub -40 up there. One thing that has resonated this year is that the longer term models are much better than flipping a coin - think about all the pretty maps we've seen the last couple of months.
TW
TW
Flotown
Member
Typically I would be willing to bet this look ends up with shorter wavelengths and more amplified warm/cold but then the 12z gfs says nah bro coast to coast ridgeWe've somehow whittled our winter down to the last 7-10 days of Feb. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. ?
I guess one positive is we have a Npac low in a semi-reasonable spot for back half of Feb.
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I just looked at mby but I'd assume it's the same for most of the region
LickWx
Member
North - central NC
Looked at the Florence, al plumes lots of members with highs 30-40 late.
I will preface all of this eps plumes talk with the fact there are still lingering warm members late as well
packfan98
Moderator
Never fear! The Euro weeklies control says Marvelous March will save the winter for NC at least…
The only positive I take from runs like that is we *might* have a nice decent one hitter out there in the next 1100 hours. Not one that I can see in the next 400hrs or so though.Never fear! The Euro weeklies control says Marvelous March will save the winter for NC at least…
Not in that location and the EPS/GEPS are much less wound. The TPV in that location isn’t the worse thing and can help to set up CAD storms
rburrel2
Member
That's actually encouraging and especially on a 252 hr mean map.
There's above normal heights over the north pole as depicted in your photo. When we really get hosed is when tpv is spinning like a top right over the pole.